Many Chances in Malaysian Grade 3
Race 15 on this week’s
First, however, we’ll revisit history with a quick look at the earlier winners of this event:
2001 – Seeking The Sun – jsimpson – 1.22.2 – 107 – Retired winner of $242k.
2002 – Whatsmyname – retired owner – 1.22.8 – 100 – winner of $1m.
2003 – Atakachaw –
2004 – Black Cielo – gene – 1.22.4 – 105 – Active winner of $328k.
2005 – Strike’em Slew – emanone – 1.22.2 – 102 – Active winner of $338k.
2006 – Narayan – eternity – 1.22.8 – 96 – active winner of $225k.
2006 – Top Notch Hero – tmaria – 1.23.0 – 94 – active winner of $177k.
Historically this race has been won in very smart time, although the last two years have seen, for the first and second time only, the winners greeting the judge without registering triple digit speed ratings. Although the roll of honour is not littered with household sim names, the race is invariably taken out by a capable, consistent runner, and we should expect no less from this years renewal.
Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s event:
The inside gate will be occupied by Paradise Cove, a superbly bred, lightly raced up and comer who has never failed to occupy the podium thus far in his six start career. Scratchbred by his trainer Lawyerron, and carrying the blood of A.P. Indy / Seeking The Gold / Pleasant Colony, his formcard is evenly balanced across the primary finishing positions, with two wins, two seconds and two thirds. He’s edging closer to the inevitable black type win, having run third in an ungraded stake two starts back, and going one better last time out when impressively finishing second, beaten only by the extra smart Sardini, the winner of
Barrier 2 is the starting place for Mach Pelican, a lightly raced colt with untapped potential. With just five runs under his belt, he’s graduated from maiden, to dual stakes winner and then to a graded placing when second last time out, behind I Don’t Get It in
Cheap Thrillers alights from barrier 3. More than most of his opposition, he has current form concerns, having faltered at each of his last five attempts, after having looked capable of anything earlier on in his juvenile career. Balancing those concerns, however, is the fact that he returns to sprinting, where his record reads two wins, a second and a third from four races. To an independent observer, it may appear that connections gave him too many chances to develop into a
Gate 4 is the starting position for Quincy, a winner of three from four since being transferred to dirt racing. He steps up to some solid opposition here, but with quality victories at each of his last two, an allowance and an ungraded stake, he’s earned the chance to add some graded black type to the form page. His first three races on the grass were solid enough, but he improved many lengths instantly when shifted to the dirt. While his exposed times are still four or five lengths shy of this week’s likely requirement, there are no bonuses for winning margins, and you only need to go faster than the horses you line up against.
From 5 comes Cat N D House, and there will be no shortage of stable followers lining up to give the bookies a serve if they open their boards at the pre-post price of 15/1. Yes, he’s an unknown quantity at this level. But he’s also the only unbeaten runner in the field. With just the two runs over the six and a half, he shaved four fifths of a second of his initial winning time when competing in allowance company five weeks ago, and it will require only a tad of natural maturity for the Mirasol bred and trained colt to advance to the triple digit speed rating likely to be asked for from the winner of this event. Cat N D House is from the initial crop of the high performing Storm Cat sire Bluegrass Cat, and is the first foal of the well bred but poorly performed Bold Crème (Seeking the Gold / Housebuster). His jockey hasn’t started the year in a blaze of glory, winning just once from forty nine mounts, but he’s a far better rider than that. D. Howard should be able to find a spot a length or so behind the leaders, and if he can duplicate the tactics applied in the colts first two runs, then he may be able to improve this years woeful figures. It’s a big jump from allowance to Graded racing, but this bloke has handled his initial tests with such authority that this may well be the last time such a generous price is offered about his chances.
Belong to Who takes his place in barrier 6. He boasts the most impressive strike rate of nine wins from his thirteen trips to the races, and we can virtually call that nine from a dozen, given that he was clearly uncomfortable is his only attempt at the route journey. His versatility is a handy problem for his connections to have, considering that he’s won four on the dirt and five on the grass. Interestingly, he’s unbeaten on the green stuff, but that doesn’t deter his trainer from running him on this surface, where he’s accumulated the majority of his prizemoney. As suggested in his name, Belong to Who is a son of Belong to Me, from the Crafty Prospector / Sadlers Wells mare Cover Glass, a winner of three from twenty four. His career highlight thus far is his victory as a two year old in the G2-High Roller’s Juvenile, and his top speed rating to date is a winning 99, underlining his ability. He’s unlikely to want to lead the field in the run, but, again stressing his range of capabilities, he’s proven equally adept at either camping just off the pace, or settling well back in the field and unwinding a solid finishing burst. Dundey4 is spoilt for choice with the options open for the future, he’ll be superbly ridden by a top jockey and stable supporters should have no qualms about putting the money up again this week.
In gate 7 we find Awesome Nugget, a colt who has been given every chance to establish himself at the ungraded stakes level, before retuning to the graded ranks. In a career of eight starts, his only finish beyond second place came at just his third run, when he ran fifth behind Storm Empire, in a full field of two year olds in
Barrier 8 holds Procedure, a winner of four from seven, and boasting immediate recent form which only enhances his chances this weekend. He’s finished off the podium just once in his career, and that was when he ran fourth of eleven at just his second start when contesting the G2-Dell Computer Futurity. He continues to increase his speed figures on a regular basis, as he improves with maturity, and the massive drop in class here will certainly be in his favour. At his most recent outing he ran a solid third behind De Fu and Folsom Blues in
Sisson’s Alley lines up in 9, and after initially struggling in his first two attempts at black type racing, he stepped up to mark last start, when second in an ungraded stake behind the very handy Folsom Blues. V8mullet has given him a freshen up since that event eight weeks ago, and last time he had a few weeks away from the races, he bounced back with a victory over this distance. Interestingly, he’s taken home the winner’s cheque at each of his two races at this seven furlong trip. Of some concern will be the fact that he is yet to salute in three tries in stakes races, and he steps up higher to graded competition this week. Balancing that question mark is his steadily improving form and his liking for the trip. Sisson’s Alley is a son of Flower Alley, and the third of four progeny of Keytothepass (Storm Cat / Buckpasser). His dam was a winner of four from forty three and is also mother of the still active stakes placed Sisson’s Smarty (Smarty Jones) from Binzaman’s companion stable Anzstable. Although Sisson’s Alley won his maiden on debut by leading all the way, his best recent efforts have come when settling further back. From the widish gate, and with a fair bit of speed in the race, I’d expect him to settle just beyond midfield, saving his best for the home straight.
From 10 comes Stockbroker, a smart young colt who has been set an ambitious program since winning his maiden at his fourth trip to the races. Although he took four tries for that initial victory, he was never far away, running third once and twice second in big fields during his maiden campaign. He obviously showed connections plenty in those early encounters, as trainer / breeder Southwest had no hesitation in stepping him straight up to graded company, where he acquitted himself admirably at his only subsequent start. Missing the podium for the first time ever four weeks ago in Florida, he nonetheless stamped himself as a runner of the future when fourth, less than three lengths behind Brave Birdie, in the G2-Hutchingson Stakes. Stockbroker is a scratchbred son of Exchange Rate / Mt. Livermore / Clever Trick. I can’t see the capable jockey A. Summors wanting to give away the same half dozen lengths Torres did last start, so he’ll be looking to cross no more than three off the pace, and have himself in a better position to unwind with the colt’s customary solid finish. The bookmakers agree with me in that they’d rather see this runner prove himself in a stakes race, before rating him a winning chance, but The Bear has been at this caper long enough for us not to underrate the chances of any of his runners
Pyrrhic Victory starts from the outside stall and is a winner of six from eleven. His speed figures show that he is still on the improve, and his last start victory underlines his current form. Although he’s been meeting generally smallish fields of late, you can only beat the opposition which turns up, and he’s accomplishing that on a regular basis. Like most talented young colts, he was stretched out with the hope of developing into a triple crown prospect. A couple of sub-par efforts may have thwarted his progress, although he appeared overall to be making steady improvement in that direction. Of course, when we consider just his sprinting record, his chances here look even better. With five wins and a third from six runs, his sprint scoreboard is almost faultless. Phyrrhic Victory is a son of Victory Gallop, based on Catharsis (Danzig / Forty Niner), a moderatlely performed winner of four from twenty two for owner trainer Kf. This colt has already outperformed his predecessor, and looks set to widen the gap even further in the near future. Four of his five sprint wins have been all the way victories, and last start he set up a massive margin mid-race, so it will come as no surprise to see this colt contesting the lead soon after barrier rise. He looks a big chance to finally score an overdue win at graded level.
Summary: A tough race where some sort of case can be made for every runner. Paradise Cove has done nothing wrong. Mach Pelican looks to have enormous upside, Cheap Thrillers returns to sprinting, where he’s done his best work, Quincy has found top form since switching surfaces, Cat N D House is unbeaten, Belong to Who has the score on the board, Awesome Nugget is in awesome form, Procedure drops from a top run at a higher level, Sisson’s Alley loves the trip, Stockbroker’s last run held a promise of a bright future and Pyrrhic Victory is an established quality sprinter.
Forced into selections – 15/1 for a fast, unbeaten colt is too good to go past. Cat N D House to win. Belong to Who doesn’t run bad races, so we’ll give him the nod for second, and Awesome Nugget also puts in every start, so he’s the third pick.
The Market:
7/2 – Procedure
9/2 – Mach Pelican
5/1 – Belong To Who
6/1 –
7/1 – Awesome Nugget, Pyrrhic Victory
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
BelongTo Who – 11
Procedure – 20
Pyrrhic Victory – 23
Awesome Nugget – 27
Cheap Thrillers – 52