Fantasy Stakes
The Fantasy Stakes is being contended on a very very sloppy track in Arkansas. This Graded II event features 3-year old Filly and Mares running a distance of 8.5F. The slop will play a factor into the race, as many of these horses have yet to touch a damp track and will be trying out a foreign track to them. Let’s see what we have….
1. Justify 7-1
Justify is a fussy mare that loves to run on the lead. She’s coming off her worse career outing, a 7th in the California Oaks. Back in January, she put in a nice 2nd in the Sunday Florida for trainer Zwango1. She’s been 1st or 2nd seven times in ten starts, grossing $600k. Races of a mile and up have been a challenge, as she’s only been on board 2 out of 5 races.
2. Court Lady 16-1
Court Lady has a perfect career record of 3 for 3 come to an end in her last, a G2 event, finishing 13th. Trainer Bredtasell enters her back into this G2 affair looking for improvement. She finished 15 lengths back in last, and she is capable of much better than that.
3. Deathcraft 6-1
Trainer Lenny5 has a hot horse entered here. Deathcraft has been on the board in all 8 starts, netting 3 victories. She normally closes hard and ran a speed of 97 in her last at a distance of 8.5f. She moves up to the graded stakes and should fit well in this field.
4. Little Guinea Pig 19-1
This little piggy…um, I mean…Little Guinea Pig.. has performed well on both the turf and dirt track surfaces. She’s only been off the board once for trainer Flemington and that was a G1 race. Her best speed is at 91 and she will need to improve on this to meet the abilities of others in this field. With that said, and this being a sloppy track, she has won her only 2 off-track races so don’t be surprised if she takes to the surface here.
5. Sabbath Point 7-2
A well bred Seeking the Gold mare won the G2 Fantasia Handicap for trainer Malekfarms. The win was by an impressive 4 1/2 lengths and run in a speed of 101 for the 8.5f. And….she broke her maiden in the slop with a speed of 89. This was against a huge field of 20. She’s very capable of repeating.
6. Distorted Bid 4-1
Distorted Bid put in a career best speed of 99 for trainer Pointblank in last, finishing 4th. Distorted ;has been struggling in the stake races, showing a second and third in 6 attempts. She does have a win on an offtrack and has been running at decent 90+ speeds recently which may be beneficial against these.
7. Boudica 14-1
Trainer Bigmoose raises the bar for Boudica placing the mare into her first graded stakes race. Boudica has only reached a speed of 90 once and in her last 2 outings, she wasn’t a threat. She can close hard, but I don’t see her fitting in here unless she finds a liking for the slop.
8. Bouquet of Roses 16-1
Bouquet of Roses is an interesting entry for trainer Whereizzy. Only two wins in four starts, Bouquet is making her debut in graded company. This mare finished 4th in her last, going 8f in a speed rating of 90 (career best). She has a first and second in two off-track races, with speeds in upper 80’s. She may be a surprise.
9. Enforcer 10-1
Trainer McSheen has an impressive horse. Enforcer makes graded race debut here after winning maiden, allowance and a nice second in stakes race (run in 100 speed) accounting for all 3 races she has been in. She loves running on the lead and has improved in each of her races. But will she like the slop????
10. Battle Driven 11-1
Trainer Zewago4 returns Battle Driven to the graded company after a hard fought 3rd place finish against allowance in her last race. Battle put in a poor effort in January versus G1 finishing 13th. That was a surprise considering her prior race was a 2nd place finish, rallying from an unheard of 20th to get there. That’s 20th place…not lengths. She has ability but I would give it a race or two first to see that she’s returned to form after her January outing.
11. Weekend Update 7-1
Weekend Update has a history of consistancy. She has been on the board in 6 of her 7 starts. Trainer Texasace06 has her ready to attack from the back of the field. Her speeds haven’t been as consistant as her finishes, fluctating between the 80’s and 90’s. Again, we have no idea how she will respond to the slop and I have a bad feeling for some reason.
12. Forestcat Story 16-1
Trainer Fredje enters this mare into her first graded race. She is coming off a 7th place finish in what was her first stakes race. She has one win in five starts and looks to be outclassed in this field.
The race is a challenge to handicap as only a few of the entrants have competed on an off-track. I do believe the track handicapper picked the right horse as the favorite, as I too like Sabbath Point. She is coming off a delightful win, consistant 90+ speeds, and a big victory in the slop.
Deathcraft is my next choice. She is consistant, likes the distance and if she shows any liking for the slop, she should get a piece of the purse. My third pick is to Enforcer has been making noticable improvement each time she races. She can go the distance however, is unproven on the offtrack.
I’ll even throw in a saver (which I rarely do). Bouquet of Roses has put up some nice off-track outings and could prove to be the spoiler of the field.