Things are getting Chilly in Japan for the G1 Winter Cup

The Winter Cup – Japan Saturday December 25th, 2021 at 3.00pm EST.

Grade 1/Group 1 $3 million 3yo+.

13 Furlongs/2600 Turf.

Final G1 race of the year in Japan. Quality field has been assembled for the last chance at glory before the new year. We have multiple Graded winners engaged. Lets take a look at the field.

1. 23136 – Watsky (Order of St George) Owned by fastnsara – Jockey – W. Kewmwa 9/1.

4yo colt with record of 17-4-3-3 and banking $987k. Been in good form of late and won over this distance 3 back. Last start he was 6^th in the G1 Singapore Cup 11F. Sat 10^th around 12 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 8^th, still 11 lengths off them on the turn. Ran home okay the last furlong, beaten nearly 6 lengths with an SP of 109. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the G1 Ark De Comicdog 12F. Sat 10^th around 6 lengths from the lead. Moved to 4^th, still nearly 4 lengths off them on the turn and stayed on strongly the last furlong, beaten 2.5 lengths with an SP of 113. Before that he won the G2 Deauville 13F. Sat 5^th around 11 lengths from the lead. Moved to 3^rd, still 4.5 lengths from them on the turn but finished full of running the last furlong to win by nearly 5 lengths with an SP of 112. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the G2 Greatwood 16F behind Tell Me Who I Am (1^st). Sat 4^th around 10 lengths from the lead. Still 4^th around 12 lengths off them on the turn and only battled the last furlong, beaten 16 lengths with an SP of 105. 13F looks right up his alley and his win over the distance a few starts back would see him go close here. Big chance.

2. 13151 – Crick’s Ruler (Ruler of the World) Owned by anothercrick6 – Jockey – C. Gerhke 14/1.

4yo gelding with overall record of 17-5-1-3 and banking $305k. Been in pretty good form in easier races. Last start he won the Rotten Storm Turf Endurance 13F. Sat 5^th around 13.5 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 4^th, still 4.5 lengths off them on the turn but finished full of running the last furlong to win by over 5 lengths with an SP of 112. Prior to that he was 5^th in the G2 Irish Saint Legend 14F. Sat 5^th around 14.5 lengths from the lead. Dropped to 6^th around 19 lengths off them on the turn and only plodded the last furlong, beaten nearly 22 lengths with an SP of 102. Before that he won the Moon Cresta Turf Endurance 14F. Sat 4^th around 17 lengths from the lead. Moved to 3^rd, still 11.5 lengths off them on the turn but finished powerfully the last furlong to win by over 3 lengths with an SP of 107. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the G2 San Juan Invitational 14F. Sat 6^th around 13.5 lengths from the lead. Moved to 5^th still 12 lengths off them on the turn and ran home well the last furlong, beaten nearly 5 lengths with an SP of 113. Been good in stakes and okay in graded events. Harder here but has an outside chance.

3. 41236 – Any Shortage (Fastnet Rock) Owned by degenrate2 – Jockey – T. Ace 9/2.

5yo horse with nice record of 17-5-3-5 and banking $851k. Been in good form over lesser trips, can he step up to the added journey here? Last start he was 6^th in the G1 Eclipse Stakes 10F. Sat 7^th around 3 lengths from the early lead. Still 6^th around 4.5 lengths off them on the turn and battled away the last furlong, beaten just over 7 lengths with an SP of 108. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the G1 Champion Stakes 10F. Sat 3^rd less than a length off the lead. Moved to 2^nd around 1.5 lengths from them on the turn and stayed on okay the last furlong, beaten 7 lengths with an SP of 114. Before that he was 2^nd in the G2 New York Stakes 10.5F. Led early by 5.5 lengths. Still nearly 4 lengths in front on the turn and stayed on well the last furlong, beaten 1 length with an SP of 120. Prior to that he won the G3 The Coupe 10F. Sat 5^th around 4 lengths from the lead. Moved to 2^nd around 1.5 lengths off them on the turn and ran home strongly the last furlong to win by nearly 3 lengths with an SP of 113. Should lead or sit on the pace here and if he handles the extra distance, he has a chance here.

4. 11172 – A Hot Mess (Galileo) Owned by stormborn2 – Jockey – Q. Cassell 6/1.

4yo colt with nice record of 16-7-4-2 and banking $1.5 million. Been in good form of late winning 3 of his past 5. Last start he was 2^nd in the G1 Singapore Cup 11F. Sat 3^rd around 3 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 2^nd, still over 2 lengths from them on the turn and grinded home the last furlong to just miss by a head with an SP of 114. Prior to that he was 7^th in the G1 Ark De Comicdog 12F. Led early by a length. Dropped to 3^rd on the turn and battled the last furlong, beaten 6 lengths with an SP of 110. Before that he won the G1 G.P Von Baden 12F. Led early by 5 lengths. Over 6 lengths in front on the turn and kept going strongly the last furlong to win by 3 lengths with an SP of 114. Prior to that he won the Shouldn’t Matter Turf Stayer 11.5F. Led early by under a length. Increased the lead to 1.5 lengths on the turn and outstayed his rivals the last furlong to win by just over 2 lengths with an SP of 113. In terrific form and should lead the field here. Has won over 14F so distance shouldn’t be an issue. Big chance.

5. 41224 – Tell Me Who I Am (Barney Roy) Owned by dydalt – Jockey – R. Truitt 7/1.

4yo gelding with record of 16-5-4-0 and banking $1 million. Form has been very good of late over 16F. Last start he was 4^th in the G1 Millwood Cup 16F. Sat 11^th around 16 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 9^th, still nearly 12 lengths off them on the turn and ran home okay the last furlong, beaten nearly 7 lengths with an SP of 108. Prior to that he was 2^nd in the G1 Longchamp Marathon 16F. Sat 11^th around 13 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 6^th, still 8.5 lengths off them on the turn and ran home strongly the last furlong to miss by ¼ of a length with an SP of 111. Before that he was 2^nd in the G3 Cannon Gold Cup 16F. Sat 6^th around 11 lengths from the lead. Moved to 3^rd, still over 5 lengths off them on the turn and battled on well the last furlong, beaten just over 2 lengths with an SP of 108. Prior to that he won the G2 Greatwood Cup 16F beating Low Impact Bed (2^nd). Sat 10^th around 16 lengths from the lead. Moved to 2^nd, still 10.5 lengths from them on the turn but finished brilliantly the last furlong to win by nearly 4 lengths with an SP of 114. Drop back in distance shouldn’t hinder his chances and looks a major player here.

6. 12131 – Grandezza (Shamardal) Owned by frankster – Jockey – N. Lawton 22/1.

3yo colt with nice record of 9-4-1-1 and banking $562k. Been in terrific from of late and his one start against the older horses was very good. Last start he won the G1 Japanese Saint Legend 15F. Led by 8 lengths early. Stretched out to a lead of nearly 10 lengths on the turn and was very strong to the line, winning by 3 lengths with an SP of 113. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the Roidazoid Turf Route 10.5F Sat 2^nd around 3 lengths from the lead. Still 2^nd around 2 lengths off them on the turn and stayed on well the last furlong, beaten 5 lengths with an SP of 110. Before that he won a 10.5F Allowance. Led early by 1.5 lengths. Kicked away by 3.5 lengths on the turn and was very strong to the line, winning by over 3 lengths with an SP of 98. Prior to that he was 2^nd in a 12F Allowance. Led early by just over a length. Dropped to 2^nd on the turn and stayed on well, beaten 3.5 lengths with an SP of 101. Really stepped it up last start when leading throughout for an impressive win. If he leads here and can maintain the effort from LTO then his odds are silly. Chance.

7. 32230 – Low Impact Bed (Deep Impact) Owned by bedford – Jockey – GD Mate 11/1.

4yo colt with nice record of 16-6-3-3 and banking $901k. Has been racing over 16F of late with mixed success. Last start he was 11^th in the G1 Millwood Cup 16F. Sat 4^th around 7 lengths from the early lead. Dropped to 5^th, over 10 lengths from them on the turn and faded badly the last furlong, beaten 21 lengths with an SP of 100. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the G2 Don’s Plastered Cup 16F. Sat 2^nd around 2 lengths from the lead. Still 2^nd on the turn, around 3.5 lengths off them and faded the last furlong, beaten over 9 lengths with an SP of 106. Before that he was 2^nd in the G2 Greatwood Cup16F. Led early by 4 lengths. Opened the lead to 10.5 lengths on the turn and just folded the last furlong, beaten nearly 4 lengths with an SP of 112. Prior to that he was 2^nd in the G1 Gold Class 16F. Sat 2^nd early by nearly 2 lengths. Still 2^nd on the turn only 1 length off them and battled away the last furlong but no match for the winner, beaten nearly 8 lengths with an SP of 109. Drop back in distance may help him here. Has speed but so do others and tactics will be important. Chance.

8. 21215 – Kawasaki Pursuit (Churchill) Owned by gunners3 – Jockey – K. Ledwith 33/1.

3yo colt with nice record of 8-3-3-0 and banking $2.2 million. Been good against his own age, step up to open grade may test. Last start he was 5^th in the G1 Vicky Derby 12.5F. Sat 5^th around 8 lengths from the early lead. Still 5^th around 9 lengths off them on the turn and only battled the last furlong, beaten nearly 9 lengths with an SP of 108. Prior to that he won the G1 Saint Legend 14.5F. Sat 4^th around 4 lengths from the lead. Took over on the turn by ¼ of a length and was strong the last furlong, winning by 3 lengths with an SP of 107. Before that he was 2^nd in the G1 Irish Derby 12F. Sat 5^th around 9 lengths from the lead. Moved to 2^nd, still over 5 lengths off them on the turn and battled away the last furlong, beaten nearly 3 lengths with an SP of 107. Prior to that he won a 9.5F Allowance. Sat 4^th early before moving to 2^nd on the turn and racing away the last furlong to win by over 4 lengths with an SP of 99. Distance won’t be an issue but steps up to open grade here. Chance if he has further improvement.

9. 11286 – Sometimes Evil (Deep Impact) Owned by texasace – Jockey – F. Gossett 9/1.

4yo colt with nice overall record of 15-7-2-2 and banking $1 million. Disappointing last two starts but prior to that was in very good form. Last start he was 6^th in the G1 Millwood Cup 16F. Sat 18^th around 20.5 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 11^th, still over 16 lengths from them on the turn and grinded home the last furlong, beaten 9.5 lengths with an SP of 106. Prior to that he was 8^th in the G1 Ark De Comicdog 12F. Sat 18^th around 15.5 lengths from the lead. Still 18^th, nearly 13 lengths off them on the turn and only plodded the last furlong, beaten 7 lengths with an SP of 109. Before that he was 2^nd in the G1 G.P Von Baden 12F behind A Hot Mess (1^st). Sat 11^th around 16.5 lengths from the lead. Moved to 8^th, still 13.5 lengths from them on the turn and finished powerfully the last furlong to go down by 3 lengths with an SP of 112. Prior to that he won the G2 Dutchland 12F. Sat 7^th around 15.5 lengths from the lead. Moved to 5^th, still 7.5 lengths off them on the turn but finished powerfully the last furlong to win by nearly 3 lengths with an SP of 117. 16F was probably a touch to far and this looks more suitable than a tough Ark race. Should be running home strongly. Chance.

10. 21100 – Deadly Realm (Bricks and Mortar) Owned by stuportransfer – Jockey – L. Radsinski 23/1.

3yo colt with great record of 10-5-3-and banking $2.9 Million. Has struggled his last two starts against older horses. Last start he was 11^th in the G1 Ark De Comicdog 12F. Sat 17^th around 13 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 15^th, still 12 lengths off them on the turn and only plodded to the line the last furlong, beaten 9.5 lengths with an SP of 107. Prior to that he was 12^th in the G1 G.P Von Baden 12F. Sat 12^th around 16.5 lengths from the lead. Dropped to 14^th around 18.5 lengths off them on the turn and only battled the last furlong, beaten 16 lengths with an SP of 101. Before that he won the G1 Irish Derby 12F. Sat 12^th around 16 lengths off the lead. Moved to 5^th, still around 10 lengths off them on the turn before unleashing a brilliant last furlong to win by nearly 3 lengths with an SP of 109. Prior to that he won the G1 Japanese Derby 12F Yielding Turf. Sat 13^th around 13 lengths from the lead. Moved to 8^th, still over 3 lengths off them on the turn but finished best the last furlong to win by over 3 lengths with an SP of 105. Hasn’t really stepped up against the older horses. Expect improvement here but will still likely struggle. Outside chance.

11. 22327 – Outback Decompress (Deep Impact) owned by outback4 – Jockey – M. Scott 13/1.

4yo colt with nice overall record of 11-3-5-1 and banking $224k. Been in good form prior to last start failure in G1. Back in distance could help. Last start he was 7^th in the G1 Millwood Cup 16F. Sat 8^th around 15 lengths from the early lead. Dropped to 10^th around 12 lengths off them on the turn and only battled the last furlong, beaten nearly 10 lengths with an SP of 106. Prior to that he was 2^nd in the G3 Two Mile Classic 16F. Sat 9^th around 13.5 lengths from the lead. Moved to 4^th around 7.5 lengths off them on the turn and ran home well the last furlong, beaten 4.5 lengths with an SP of 108. Before that he was 3^rd in the G3 Cannon Gold Cup 16F. Sat 9^th around 18 lengths from the lead. Moved to 6^th around 12.5 lengths from the lead and ran home okay the last furlong, beaten 7 lengths with an SP of 105. Prior to that he was 2^nd in the Ale N Skittles Turf Stayer 16F. Sat 8^th around 11 lengths from the lead. Moved to 5^th around 5 lengths off them on the turn and battled away well the last furlong, beaten nearly 5 lengths with an SP of 108. Finding it hard to break through lately and his last win was in February. Will run on but only an outside chance here.

12. 11102 – Sadler’s Pirate (Giant’s Causeway) owned by jubalrutledge – Jockey – W. Cahill 9/1.

5yo horse with nice record of 23-8-6-2 and banking $580k. Been in good form of late except for run 2 back. Last start he was 2^nd in the G2 New Zealand Drinking Device 16F. Led early by over 3 lengths. Still led by nearly 4 lengths on the turn and stayed on well the last furlong, beaten 1 length with an SP of 105. Prior to that he was 12^th in the G1 Ark De Comicdog 12F. Sat 8^th around 4.5 lengths from the lead. Dropped to 9^th around 6 lengths off them on the turn and faded the last furlong, beaten 11 lengths with an SP of 106. Before that he won the Cincinnati Soup Turf Stayer 16F. Sat 2^nd around 2 lengths from the lead. Took over on the turn by ¼ of a length and kicked away the last furlong to win by 5.5 lengths with an SP of 104. Prior to that he won the Sass with Class Turf Endurance 12F. Sat 5^th around 7 lengths from the lead. Moved to 2^nd around 4 lengths off them on the turn and raced clear the last furlong to win by 3 lengths with an SP of 116. Distance should be fine but the class in this is another level for him again. Chance.

13. 11134 – The Summer Star (The Autumn Sun) owned by upknockshiz – Jockey – J. White 14/1.

3yo gelding with nice record of 15-6-3-2 and banking $375k. Been in great form of late and latest run against older horses was terrific. Last start he was 4^th in the G1 King Kong Vase 12F. Sat 8^th around 11 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 5^th around 8 lengths off them on the turn and ran home well the last furlong, beaten nearly 2 lengths with an SP of 114. Prior to that he was 3^rd in the G1 Japanese Saint Legend 15F behind Grandezza (1^st). Sat 3^rd around 10 lengths from the lead. Moved to 2^nd, still nearly 10 lengths off them on the turn and ran home okay the last furlong, beaten just over 5 lengths with an SP of 110. Before that he won the G3 Dutch St. Leger 14F. Led early by nearly 2 lengths. Still 2 lengths in front on the turn and kept going strongly the last furlong to win by ½ length with an SP of 108. Prior to that he won a 13F Allowance. Led early by 5.5 lengths and maintained that to the turn. Kicked clear the last furlong and held on well to win by 4.5 lengths with an SP of 106. Distance looks ideal and he looked good last start. Major player.

14. 46124 – Western Raven (Intello) Owned by coolk9 – Jockey – B. Scott 8/1.

4yo colt with terrific overall record of 15-9-3-0 and banking $4.1 million. Been racing over 16F lately with success. Drop back here. Last start he was 4^th in a Local Championship Stakes 16F. Sat 5^th around 10 lengths from the early lead. Moved to 6^th, still 5 lengths off them on the turn and only battled the last furlong, beaten just over 8 lengths with an SP of 104. Prior to that he was 2^nd in the G1 Millwood Cup 16F. Sat 6^th around 10 lengths from the lead. Moved to 3^rd, still 6 lengths off them on the turn and was steady to the line, beaten nearly 4 lengths with an SP of 110. Before that he won a 16F Allowance. Led early by a head. Was, 4 lengths in front on the turn and stayed on very strongly the last furlong to win by 5 lengths with an SP of 111. Prior to that he was 6^th in the G1 Longchamp Marathon 16F. Sat 8^th around 11 lengths from the lead. Was 7^th around 13 lengths off them on the turn and only battled the last furlong, beaten 15 lengths with an SP of 103. The drop back in distance may help him and think he has a great chance. Will be running on strongly. Big threat.

Very open race with many chances. Speed holds the key with a few leaders engaged, might set it up for the backmarkers.

1. Watksy – Liked his win over 13F 3 starts back. Should be suited by strong tempo. Big chance. 9/1.

13. The Summer Star – Really good against older horses at first try and only improves off that. Key player. 14/1.

5. Tell Me Who I Am – Been in very good form and drop in distance may favour. Chance. 7/1.