Commander Project
The Commander Project is scheduled to run with a field of 8 going a distance of 10f. The weatherman is predicting pleasant conditions, so the dirt track should be fast.
1. Montejo 7-1 Last 3: 2-8-3
Montejo is coming off a career best speed of 107 at 9f where he finished second closing hard. Montejo, however, has been eratic of late, as the race previous was in a speed of 77 over 11f. He returns to the stakes level where he’s only hit the board once in five efforts. His recent inconsistant form over the last 7 or 8 races concerns me.
2. Malignant Worm 5-1 Last 3: 4-2-7
Malignant is back to 10f where he has raced 4 times and never finished worse than second. He tired badlly in last, losing by 18 strides, however this was at 14f and after a 5-month layoff. I’m expecting a noticeable improvement this time out.
3. Tizona 8-1 Last 3: 5-4-3
Tizona is being moved over to the dirt for the first time. Tizona struggled last time out, finishing 13 back going 10 furlongs versus the allowance class. He likes the front, but lately has been held just off the lead. I would hold off on this one only until we get a read on how he handles the dirt.
4. Fast Fritz 15-1 Last 3: 4-1-8
Fast Fritz had a win at 10f two back, closing like a blaze of lightning to win by 1/2 length after trailing by 15. He makes his stakes debut after establishing a career speed of 101 on a good track. Fast Fritz hasn’t shown the consitancy I like (on board once in last seven) and I think the stakes level will be a challenge.
5. Jenyan 8-1 Last 3: 4-3-2
Jenyan has recently started running on the dirt with a 2nd and 3rd at 10f, both nicely over the 100 speed mark. He did tire badly in last outing at 10.5f with no apparent reason. He likes the front end and is capable of pulling off an upset.
6. Morning 5-2 Last 3: 2-2-1
Morning is extremely sharp. His last seven races have resulted in 1st and 2nd place finishes. His speed in the last 6 have all surpassed the 100 plateau. Although he has only 2 stakes records (both 2nd place finishes), he fits nicely here.
7. Sisson’s Cause 12-1 Last 3: 1-6-3
Sisson was on fire last outing, rallying from 10 down to draw off to a 4 length victory and a career best of 100 speed. Sisson is making his first start in the stakes group and shows a liking for this distance. In his 20 starts, he has only surpassed the 90 speed mark five times and will need to be at his best to win this.
8. Triple A Prayer 2-1 Last 3: 5-5-5
Triple’s last 5 finishes have not been impressive, finishing either fifth or sixth in each. However, four of these were against graded stakes and Triple has been consistantly over the 100-speed threshold since May ’07. He drops back to the non-graded stakes and will be a contender.
Morning gets the edge here. He’s been on a roll and may capture his first stakes victory. Triple A Prayer is back to a competitive level and is the top foe. Jenyan is my third selection. His last outing I will write off as a fluke and he should return to sharp form.