Jennifer’s Seas Challenge draws six

Virginia rolls things back to classic distances for this week’s highlight race, the Jennifer’s Seas Challenge. The race invites fillies and mares four years and older to run over a mile of turf, once again rated as firm for this week’s race. A $50000 purse is up for grabs for the lady that can bring this one home. This is the fourth time this stakes has run in Virginia, and it was one last year by longshot Bullet Dodger, contesting the lead early before romping to a three length victory, untouched in the second half. Odds are generally tight in this race, and the favorite has never won. This year we see a field of six go to the gate, and once again oddsmakers are handing out free dartboards to the bettors. Four of the six contenders weigh in between 2/1 and 7/2 odds, with the outside bets at a relatively slim 8/1 and 9/1 odds. All the entries are fairly lightly raced, with the highest start count in the field being a mere twenty two starts. Once again things don’t look so bright at the betting windows, though with an upset, we could see a half decent exacta.

PP 1) Crown Duchess Sired by Vindication, Trained by crown. Crown Duchess is one of two five year older mares challenging this field of fillies, and is the most lightly raced in the field, making only her twelfth career outing. This is her third try at stakes level competition, and she is still seeking her first win at this level. Her first eleven have netted her a record of 3-1-4-0-1 with a top speed number of 97.2 in her A2x victory last November. Her last start was a nine furlong stakes in Pennsylvania, where she started in an early hole that just continiued to deepen as the race went on, seeing her come in eighth in a field of twelve. After failing to break her maiden while running well in three dirt tries, the switch to turf proved to be the catalyst she needed, seeing her grab wins in her next two starts. Part of that turn around might also be attributable a move back to classic distance at the same time. She has wins from eight to ten furlongs. Ten furlongs appears to be the edge of her range, speed wise, with her better speeds coming a bit shorter. In this distance range, she has a win and a show in two tries on turf. She breaks as a midpack closer, and in the allowance ranks her close has been quite consistent at classic distances. Stakes competition has proven to be a different story, however and in her last two, her first at this level of competition, she hasn’t managed to find any jump in the second half. She comes up against some consistent 100+ runners here, and she is going to have to pop off a big one to be any kind of threat here.

PP 2) Risk Of Ruin(KY) Sired by Storm Cat, Trained by lenny10. Risk Of Ruin(KY) is a four year old filly, seeing action in her fourteenth career start. She’s the favorite here, and comes in on a hot streak. After sustaining a slight injury late last September, she has simply exploded, grabbing victories in her next four, including two of her three career stakes victories, and posting four straight 100+ speed figures. She boasts a record of 8-0-1-2-1 for her career, putting up a top speed of 111.7 two starts back. Her last run was a stakes race at this distance in Nebraska, where she came out of nowhere to run to a two and a half length victory in a field of eight. She has never been off the grass, but with eight victories in thirteen starts, why tamper with success? She is very comfortable in this distance range, and she has six wins and a show in nine runs in the mile to mile and a half range. She is a deep closer, and while her close has always been fairly consistent, it has been nothing short of amazing in her last four starts. The setup here favors her, as well, with no real breakout speed up front, which should leave her in a very comfortable striking position at the half. She has a field of closers around her, who have shown themselves capable of putting up some big numbers too, but if she runs the way she has in her last four starts, she will be the horse to beat here.

PP 3) Moon D’Inverne(IRE) Sired by Moon Ballad(IRE), Trained by landen2. Moon D’Inverne(IRE) is a four year old filly, making career start number eighteen in this race. After knocking around the claim and starter allowance ranks for a good portion of her three year old season, she steps up to stakes competition for the first time here, under the tutelage of her third trainer. In her last ten starts, while not facing the level of competition she sees here, she has posted a respectable 2-5-2-0-0 record, with a top speed number of 101.5 in a starter allowance against the boys early last October. Her last race was an A2x at eight and a half furlongs in Ohio, where she mounted a second half flurry, but wasn’t able to get there, settling for third in a field of fourteen. She has a pair of career dirt starts, and while her speeds were comparable, turf is where she has experienced her success. This distance range appears to be her range of choice, with nine of her career starts coming in the mile to mile and a half range, resulting in six top three finishes. She is a deep closer, and her close has been quite good, though she has never proven herself in a field anywhere near this calibre. She has been steadily improving recently, but she is taking a big jump in class here. She is going to have to take her performance to another level, as well, to be any real threat here late.

PP 4) Credit Clock(KY) Sired by Fusaichi Pegasus, Trained by brentuk1. Credit Clock(KY) is a regally bred four year old filly, making career start number fourteen. She is no stranger to the highest levels of competition, and comes into this one behind her first career stakes victory. In her thirteen starts, she has put together a 4-3-2-1-2 record, with a best speed figure of 108.2 coming in her second start of this season. Her last race was a seven and a hlaf furlong stakes effort in Jamaica, where she bested a field of six by a length behind a strong second half performance. After a decent though not spectacular debut on dirt, she switched to grass in her second start, failing to collect a check only once since, with that being a Grade I where she ran against her preferred style and paid for it. Her best speeds have come in slightly shorter races, though she has proven herself capable in the mile to mile and a half range with six top three finishes in seven tries. She prefers a stalker’s pace, and she isn’t adverse to an early duel if that’s what it takes. Her break from the gate could very well see her out front early here, with no real rabbits on this card. That position hasn’t favored her recently, being unable to hold on late the last three times she found herself in this position, though she did have a pair of wire to wire victories in allowance competition last summer. She has been doing the best racing of her career this season, and could be able to build up a decent cushion heading into the second half. If she can control the pace early and not try to run away with things too fast, could be a serious threat to go gate to wire here.

PP 5) Vy The Quarterback(KY) Sired by Kitten’s Joy, Trained by catahoula. Vy The Quarterback(KY) is the most experienced runner in the field, a four year old filly taking her twenty third career trip here. She backstops that experience with a number 90 division ranking by virtue of six career stakes wins, three of those at graded level. She sports a 2-1-1-1-2 record out of her last ten, capping her speeds with a 109.6 in her last start of the 2007 season. Her last start was an A3s outing at this distance in Pennsylvania, where she finished a hard closing fourth in a competitive field of thirteen. Turf is her preferred surface with one dirt start last season only serving to reinforce that fact unquestionably. This is also her preferred distance range, accounting for twelve of her career runs, resulting in her top speed numbers and seven top two finishes. She is a deep closer, and her close has been more consistent than not over her last several starts, but it has always failed to get her home more often during that stretch, as well. A slower early pace here helps her, but the hungry closers around her don’t in this race. Her speeds have been on a yoyo recently, and she is due for a downshift here. If she runs the way she is capable of, she has the potential to be a threat here, but if she takes the bounce she looks to be due for, she could be hard pressed to crack the trifecta.

PP 6) Chateau Star Sired by Fusaichi Pegasus, Trained by chateau. Chateau Star makes the thrid start of her five year old campaign, and the sixteenth of her career in this race. She has one previous stakes victory to her credit, coming in August of last year. She carries a 3-1-2-2-0 record out of her last ten, with a top speed of 113.3 coming in a stakes at this distance late last year. She last ran in an eight and a half furlong stakes in Wyoming, where she trailed a field of seven home by fifteen and a half lengths. She is another that found turf after a decent dirt debut, proceeding to reel off victories in five of her next eight starts, and never looking back. This distance is her race of choice, and in eight career starts she has five top three finishes and some blazing speed numbers to go with them. She generally prefers to run from the head of midpack, but her close has been rather spotty over her last eight starts. She showed some brilliant speed towards the end of last season, but has not been able to muster anything at all this year, losing both starts this season by over fourteen lengths. A big key for her here is a slight drop in distance. That mere sixteenth of a mile has been all the difference in the world for her over her last several starts. In four starts at a mile, she has since last May, she hasn’t failed to crack the 100 speed barrier, while just a half furlong longer she topped out at a 95 speed number. While her first two starts of the year don’t recommend her here, if those speed figures are more than just an anomaly, she could surprise.