Big Race Preview 3518

A grade two race is the big even this week. It is a Derby Lock Prep so we will be watching a runner that will have a spot in the gates at the Bluegrass Derby. The only grade one races this week are player bought grade ones. Both races drew solid fields and both are on turf with three year old colts going a mile and older fillies and mares sprinting.

Race: 3518.0514 All Saints Derby — Derby Lock Prep – Grade II – $500,000
Track: Louisiana
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt

The feature race of the week is a grade two event for three year olds on the Bluegrass Derby trail. This is Derby Lock Prep meaning the winner of this race is in the Bluegrass Derby no matter what.

The favorite is Indy Prospector. This is a son of Indy King. He is a grade two winner as a two year old in a sprint. Only three of his eleven career races have been in routes and his has only hit the board once in those three races. Two races back in a listed stakes he ran a pretty good race earning a 99 speed figure while running second. He tried a little further distance last time earning a 95 speed figure where he faded in the end to finish fifth. He likes to be close to the pace but still has to prove routes are where he belongs. I do not think the distance is an issue the issue appears to be with eleven races under his belt is he capable of improving his top speed figure by five or six points? I think he is very vulnerable in this spot.

Trading Jack is undefeated in five career starts. This son of Dehere has been brought along nicely. He broke his maiden, won a couple of allowance races, and then won a couple of listed stakes. He is ready for his graded debut. His two starts in listed stakes races have produced two 100+ speed figures. He has a bunch of room to grow, will handle the distance just fine, and has already run as fast as most of the runners in this field. His running style will put him well off the early pace but Louisiana has a long stretch run.

Good Bad Ugly ran a pretty good race in his three year old debut last time out. He was entered in a listed stakes at a mile and ran a 104 speed figure while winning by almost two lengths. This is a son of Unbridled’s Song so the Derby distance is well within grasp. He is trained by the Super bunch who are well versed in getting runners to big races. Good Bad Ugly comes from off the pace so he will likely be mid pack or further back. This guy was good as a two year and he looks like he will be even better a three.

Snarky Remark has won two in a row since stretching out over a mile. Early in his career he ran on the turf breaking his maiden, winning an allowance and even placing in a stakes. When moved to the dirt he responded with two wins and a placing in three listed stakes. He has won back to back races and his last was a dandy where he earned a 106 speed figure. He is a closer type so like many of the others mentioned could be a little vulnerable to a good front runner.

Sahara Desert is a horse with speed that can give the favorites a fit. Last time out he went wire to wire in smart fashion winning by two lengths while earning a 101 speed figure. He will likely not be setting the pace. In his previous races he has stalked and there are other speed horses in this race. There is a good chance he stalks and pounces but either way Sahara Desert will be a part of the pace scenario.

Race: 3518.0116 The MOUNTAIN THAT RIDES Battle – Grade I – $500,000
Track: California
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf

This is a player bought grade one race that has attracted seventeen starters. Hitsugaya is the morning line favorite at eight to one. He is by War Front and has been pretty salty on the turf. Hitsugaya has won back to back stakes races at a mile earning solid speed figures. He is a closer coming from off the pace in each of his last two races. He does appear capable of running well enough to win this.

If Furthermore can handle a mile distance he could be you winner. Furthermore has won five of his seven career starts. He has won four of his last five races since moving to turf all in sprints. His last two have been at seven and a half furlongs he is not being asked to run very much further. He earned a 102 speed figure last time out. He should stalk the pace here and be a threat.

Stonebridge Knight finished second last time out in a grade two put on by Vermont. He set the pace in that race getting caught in the end. He has won five times in his ten career starts. He has stalked the pace as well in his career so he is not a one trick pony having to go to the lead.

Berzerko has won three of four career starts. His only loss came on the dirt and now he steps up facing a field that has a couple of solid runners. He has stalked and pounced in a couple of races but as the distances get longer he has started to fall off the pace more. His speed figures are not quite as good as a few in here but he is lightly raced and has room to improve.

The Lenbrenner Empire ran Clodbuster in a turf allowance in his three year old debut after a two year old campaign on dirt. They where treated with a much improved performance as Clodbuster stalked the early pace and took control on the turn for home and stretched out to win by two and a half lengths. He earned a 97 speed figure in that effort and looks like a live long shot here.

Race: 3518.4316 The Ball And Chain Bullet – Grade I – $500,000
Track: South Dakota
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 5 years old and up
Distance: Six furlongs on the Turf

This is a player bought grade one. There are not a lot of graded races for fillies and mares sprinting on the turf so this one did not draw an easier field excluding four year olds but none the less we are looking at five year olds and older.

Alberta Gold is one of our co favorites. She is a very fast older mare capable of 110+ speed figures. She has won six races in a row that include the grade one Mumtaz Mahal and the grade three Cooties Sprint. In her last three races she has posted 109,109 and 113 speed figures. This lady can fly on the turf. She is usually off the pace mid pack or further and closes with fury.

Running Scared is the other co favorite in this race.  She is a grade three winner and has done most of her recent racing at a mile. She is very capable in sprints as she proved three races back where she ran a 109 speed figure at six furlongs on the turf just missing a grade three win by a quarter length. She is grade one placed in sprints as well. Running Scared tends to stalk the pace in races so look for her not too far off the pace.

Rudy is a filly that has won twelve of sixteen career starts on the turf. She comes off a listed stakes win where she earned a 112 speed figure. She has won nine of her last ten races and steps up to the graded level for the first time. Even though she has been kicking butt in allowance races until her last race she had not really stepped up and run the big speed figure. She is stalker and gets her chance to prove she belongs.

Canadian Gold is a filly that has mostly run on dirt. Her last two have been on the turf where she has a win and a show. In her win in a listed stakes she ran a 110 speed figure winning by a length and a half. She has mostly been entered in longer sprints so she is cutting back a bit in distance. She is a stalker and if she can repeat her effort two back she has a shot at her first grade one win.