The NIGHTLY START Special

A field of nine three year old colts will run in the feature stakes this week in Alabama. They will go a mile and three sixteenths on the dirt course in this ungraded stakes and the winner will take home $36,000 of the $60,000 purse. There is only one horse in the top 250 of the division, but he (Alydar Again(KY)) is ranked ninth. This race could be a considered a minor Bluegrass Derby prep for him if he can run a great SP (100+) and win going away.

1- INCREDIBLE ROCK(KY) 6-2-0-1 A Lee 9/1

Stable tg1 ROCK HARD TEN x GONE WEST x SUMMER SQUALL

Incredible Rock(KY) is out of the well-bred grade “C” mare, Incredible Rip. Incredible Rip got eight of her nine career wins in dirt routes and her first foal has taken a liking to dirt routes as well. Incredible Rock(KY) has also taken a liking to running in the slop; he won last time out in an A-NW1X with a career high SP (88) in the slop. His other win came at 8.5F in a MSW-41000, but he will have trouble jumping from A-NW1X company to the stakes, so don’t bank on him making it three in a row on Saturday.

2- ANOTHER WORD(JPN) 6-2-3-0 B Shoe 7/1

Stable blinking AFLEET x UNBRIDLED’S SONG x ALYDAR

Another Word(JPN) is out of a grade “H” mare, who is eligible to be bred to by all players. Alysong has a good pedigree, but was a grade “H”, because she only raced twice in her career. She has produced three winners and one stakes winner from four foals. Another Word(JPN) comes in off of a career high SP (95), when he went a mile in an A-NW3L race and ran second. He has never tried a stakes or tried to go past a mile, so I would consider him a wild card here on Saturday.

3- EDDINGTON LAKE(KY) 8-3-0-1 C Riddle 8/1

Stable bateau  EDDINGTON x STRIKE THE GOLD x NUREYEV

After winning an A-NW2L and then an A-NW3L in his last two races, Eddington Lake(KY) just to the ungraded stakes level for the first time. Like several other horses in this field he comes in here off of a career race. He posted a 98 SP, a career by 13 points, at this distance to win that A-NW3L race. He is ironically based on the grade “C” he mare, Bunny Lake, who was an excellent turf sprinter. I think he is most likely to bounce on Saturday.

4- SLEW’S TIZNOW(FL) 6-1-1-1 M Ross 17/1

Stable jokerromeo SPANISH STEPS x NUREYEV x MAGNITUDE(ENG)

After posting a 77 SP and running second in his first start, Slew’s Tiznow(FL)’s connections must have been excited about his future potential. However, he has not improved greatly on that effort, so I would avoid betting on him, even at 17/1 odds. To be fair, he did try this distance in his only prior stakes effort and led through the first two calls, before he faded badly. His only hope is to get loose on the lead, but I can not see that happening.

5- PIRATE’S REVENGE(KY) 8-1-3-0 F Bizzell 10/1

Stable losthecode VINDICATION x ROBERTO x BOLD BIDDER

He comes in here off of two good sprint efforts, but I can not see him winning at 9.5 furlongs. He ran fifth twice at this distance in MSW company and he just broke his maiden two races back. He is still eligible to NW2L and he could easily win allowance in that condition, but I do not the he can win routing in an ungraded stakes on Saturday.

6- BUDGET DAY(KY) 5-2-3-0 M Scroggins 7/2

Stable hollofly AWESOME AGAIN x A.P. INDY x MR. PROSPECTOR

He is first of three worthy co-favorites in this field. He posted an amazing 98 SP on an off track last time out at 8.5 furlongs. He has never finished outside of the exacta, but he has been an odds on favorite in four of his five career races. He loves the distance and should make a great transition to the ungraded stakes level, but I think he needs to prove that he can run a 98 SP on a fast track or he will be dubbed a mudder.

7- ALYDAR AGAIN(KY) 7-4-1-0 R Pollard 7/2

Stable texasace04 AWESOME AGAIN x NORTHERN BABY x ALYDAR

One of the division’s ten best comes to Alabama as a co-favorite, with a legendary jockey and trainer combination to make him even more formidable. His grade 1 win last November propelled him to his high divisional ranking, but his SPs have taken a drop since that race. He is out of the grade “C” mare, North Vote, who not only loved dirt routes, but who has produced five winners (two graded winners), from five foals. Expect him to roll from the back and at least hit the board on Saturday.

8- SLAMMIN G’(KY) 11-3-5-2 E Sharp 7/2

Stable sweetie GRAND SLAM x A.P. INDY x COZZENE

Slammin G’(KY) is the final co-favorite in the field. He ran third here three weeks ago as a lukewarm 5/1 favorite, at 8.5 furlong in this class. That put him to 3-1-0-1 at 8.5F on the dirt, but the jump 9.5 furlongs may be a stretch for him. He is out of a grade “G” mare that did all of her damage in routes. Two races ago, in his first race as a three year old he bounced at the same distance and in the same class. He can run well enough to win and he should run no worse than third.

9- BLUE RANSOM(SWE) 8-2-2-0 M Cisco 7/1

Stable funkytown BLUE TALK (SWE) x RED RANSOM x SECRETARIAT

Blue Ransom(SWE) has never ran past seven furlongs, and he ran seventh in his only prior stakes effort, but he could be a dangerous long shot on Saturday. He is out of a grade “G” mare, who did what little damage she did in dirt routes and who has produced three winners from three foals. His pedigree suggests he should be able to get 9.5 furlongs. Last time out he stretched it to seven furlongs for the first time and he ran a career high, by eleven points, 96 SP. If he improves that much by when he goes to 9.5, he will be in the winner’s circle on Saturday. Can he get the distance?

FINAL ANALYSIS

The #2 and #9 are playable long shots, but the three co-favorites will be tough to beat. I will take a real shot in the dark and pick 9-7-8 as my trifecta.