The Bonnie Situation Situation

It’s all about timing.  Just eight weeks until the first Saturday in May has every trainer looking over his three year old stock and wondering, “Why not this one? With just  a break or two, this colt might qualify for the Bluegrass.  Heck, he might even win it.”

It’s no wonder there is demand for three-year-old grade stakes.  There are five of them running this weekend and this race, the Grade II Bonnie Situation, like the rest of them attracted an overflow field.  The timing, surface and distance all make this a logical Derby prep race.  There is time for one more race between now and the Derby.  No wonder, at just a sixteenth short of Derby distance and on the same track, it’s such an attractive draw.

Three of the top 24 colts are entered here, and they are the only three graded winners, but a lack of a graded win should not discourage any of the others – three previous Bluegrass winners, including last year’s winner Ataun, had not won a graded stakes eight weeks before the first Saturday in May.

Here is a look at the field for the first running of the Bonnie Situation:

PP 1 GHOST IN A DANCER(KY) (GHOSTZAPPER x STORM CAT x FAPPIANO) bred and trained by triscay (Ozsteve Stables, 16%) Odds: 7-1

One of the top two-year olds last year.  In fact, he would have been the Eclipse winner had he been able to pick up another length and a half in the Breeders Bowl.  Since turning three and since he quit sprinting, things haven’t gone so well.  He may be coming back into form, though.  Barn gave him a three month vacation after the Breeders Bowl, so we can excuse his January run as the first off a layoff.  Last time he rallied with interest for a finish that was better than the seventh place might indicate.  That rally might mean the distance is not a problem.

PP 2 ROCK AND FIRE(KY) (ROCK HARD TEN x HOLD THAT TIGER x A.P. INDY) bred and trained by willyam37 (Wfstables3 Stables, 16%) Odds: 21-1

He’s been in the money in four of his five routes, and he’s undefeated as a three-year-old.  There are serious issues to overcome.  He makes a huge jump in class from allowance company to Grade II, despite being winless in both his starts in overnight stakes.  His top speed figure is tied with a couple others as the lowest in the field.  In his favor is that he’s very lightly raced and looks like a much better three-year-old than he was at two.

PP 3 JUPITER HUNTER(NY) (JADE HUNTER x DEPUTY MINISTER x GONE WEST) bred by coolk, trained by kool4katz (Coolk Stables, 22%) Odds: 11-1

He tried this level once before, and sure enough, the top three colts from that race are here again, and they seem all to have improved even more than Jupiter has.  He’s trying a bold leap from small allowance races to a Grade II.  Anything this accomplished barn sends out deserves a long look, but he seems up against it here.  Win or lose, Jupiter is bound to be a factor in the outcome.  If High Mesa was hoping to cruise to a comfortable early pace, this one, at the very least, will make that an unlikely event.

PP 4 HIGH MESA(KY) (SKY MESA x WOODMAN x MOUNTAIN CAT) bred and trained by whitetiger (Windward Farm, 11%) Odds: 5-1

He was able to shake off the early pressure from Jupiter Hunter in the Grade II Club in November, and he’ll have to do it again.  The 103 speed figure last time shows what he can do if he gets lost on a lead, and it makes him the favorite today.  A win today would be no surprise and would make him one of the favorites for the Derby.  There’s a lot to like here that should be obvious, so we’ll look for the negatives.  The field he beat last time was not nearly as strong as this, and when he faced multiple challenges for the early lead two races back, he wilted under the pressure.

PP 5 MAWDRYN UNDEAD(IND) (DON’T FORGET ME(IRE) x DEPUTY MINISTER x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by hambeau (Hambeau Stables, 10%) Odds: 7-1

Doctor Who-inspired colt broke his maiden in his first route and then, oddly, has only been sprinting ever since.  Can’t really fault that, as he’s been doing quite well in overnight sprints, but his return to routing here at the graded level makes this a tough call.  His speed figures are competitive and despite his front-running preference, he can win from off the pace as well.  We don’t know if he can handle the class or even if he actually likes routes.  No other colt from that maiden win has gone on to accomplish much of anything.  It’s also quite possible that he might love routing.  Worth watching at this point.

PP 6 KIRBY’S WARRIOR(KY) (A. P. WARRIOR x MINESHAFT x ALYDAR) bred and trained by kirby55 (Ojai Valley Stables, 15%) Odds: 6-1

This colt is exactly why, if you must make a future wager on the Derby, you want to bet the also-eligibles.  Rated 32^nd in the division, he’s just off the radar, yet he looks like a real contender.  He enters this race, his first try in a graded stakes, with the highest speed figure in the field (tied with Shetan).  His second last time came against a strong overnight field, and his running style of coming just off the pace looks like it fits this race.  He’s a rapidly improving colt who likes the distance.

PP 7 RIDE FOR FREE(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x EVENT OF THE YEAR x ALYDAR) bred and trained by fairfax (Tmp Stables, 7%) Odds: 17-1

Imagine you own a three-year-old colt with very expensive breeding, and he’s won four of his last five races, and the only loss was a close second, and it’s eight weeks before the Bluegrass Derby.  Wouldn’t you think he deserves a chance to see if he can get in?  Me, too.  Ride’s been working through his conditions for this patient trainer.  If it turns out this colt is special, now’s the time to show it.  Long odds are due to the fact that his speed figures don’t measure up.  It’s tough to pick him to win when that’s compounded with the huge class jump, but I’m with this trainer.  The colt deserves a shot to see if he’s got it in him.

PP 8 SHETAN(KY) (STORM CAT x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by cdragon (Twoofus Stables, 16%) Odds: 7-1

Threw an eye popping figure in Iowa last time to lead this field.  It was a huge improvement for him, but those sudden improvements once a colt turns three are seldom flukes.  That he’s already won at the distance is a plus as well.  A closer look at that last race reveals that he beat only one stakeswinner.  Even so, a good showing here likely puts him in the Derby.

PP 9 QUEST FOR OIL(KY) (EL CORREDOR x RAINBOW QUEST x SILVER DEPUTY) bred and trained by sheeba (The Big Oil Conglomerate, 11%) Odds: 18-1

Speedster should be prominent early, but it’s tough to visualize him being around at the end.  He’s only cracked 90 once despite facing much weaker.  A wet track would have enhanced his chances, but alas, it looks like perfect weather.

PP 10 SEEKING SUCCESS(KY) (SUCCESSFUL APPEAL x SEEKING THE GOLD x CRAFTY PROSPECTOR) bred by lopickles, trained by mjclooch (M & J Stables, 8%) Odds: 14-1

He’s been rallying but coming up short against weaker and seeks success here by taking a bold step up in class.  He’s already making his fifth start as a three-year-old, so if he was going to make dramatic improvement at this age, you’d think he’d have shown it by now.  He’s picked up two wins since being claimed for $10,000 in October, but he’s 0 for 3 in threatening in stakes races.

PP 11 KISSIN STREETCRY(KY) (STREET CRY (IRE) x SADLER’S WELLS x GONE WEST) bred and trained by Sherwood (Dentition *No Do Claima’s* Stables, 16%) Odds: 10-1

Looks like a dangerous longshot.  This lightly raced colt has three wins in five routes.  His last couple races were in overnights where he picked up a win and a third, earning figures that equal The Gun Went Off’s and Ghost in a Dancer’s.  He’ll need a win to hope to sneak into the Bluegrass.  In 2003, I Seek U also made his graded debut eight weeks before the Derby, won and managed to get in the Derby.   He’s now in the Hall of Fame.  Is Kissin the second coming of I Seek U?  Of course not!  But that’s the great thing about late winter racing for three-year-olds.  Sherwood is allowed to dream.

PP 12 THE GUN WENT OFF(KY) (MINESHAFT x DANZIG x BUCKPASSER) bred by thethumb07, trained by lenny12 (The Evil Empire, 18%) Odds: 8-1

In a recent posting Lenny said he wants BTB writers to pick against his horses.  Well then, quit entering horses like this.  After this colt blew by Fleet Daisy (and leaving Ghost in a Dancer behind) in his last race, Trotter’s Derby Watch has him pegged as the one to beat.  Late charger is likely to get the pace battle to run at that he craves.  He was great as a two year old, and the accepted wisdom is that great two-year-olds make poor runners once they turn three.  His big improvement in his first race of the year is another example that that just isn’t always true.

PP 13 PANHANDLING(KY) (A.P. INDY x SEEKING THE GOLD x NORTHERN DANCER) bred and trained by dixiedotco (Dixiedotco Racing, 26%) Odds: 11-1

With a quick second to High Mesa in the Club Stakes, he finished his two-year-old campaign on a high note and looked to be a factor in this year’s big races.  Everyone’s favorite trainer instead put him in a weak allowance race just after the first of the year.  Then a two month vacation leading in to this. If he’s healthy, all that may just be positioning to hit the Triple Crown races on the upswing of the form cycle.  Current’y ranked 28^th, he’ll need to move up a few notches to make the field.

PP 14 GOOFYS TRAIN(KY) (BLUEGRASS CAT x MACHIAVELLIAN x SHADEED) bred and trained by screaming (Epcotlen Stables, 12%) Odds: 19-1

Everything’s going in the right direction.  He’s getting faster each race and responding well to challenges as he climbs the class ladder.  He’ll likely sit just behind the early runners, and we’ll watch to see if he stands the challenge when the late runners make their assault.  He’s an unlikely winner, but if he can finish in the front half, it portends good things.

Conclusion.  This is truly a tough call.  Three-year-olds this time of the year can show dramatic improvement at any time.   I don’t know what shape Panhandling is in, so I’ll pass over those tempting double digit odds.  There’s a likely pace battle, so I also pass over the favorite.  High Mesa may well wire the field, but I’ll look for longer odds.  I’ll go with The Gun Went Off to win.  8-1 appears to be an overlay, and the trainer asked not to be picked.  I don’t like to follow directions.  Kirby’s Warrior is showing great improvement. We’ll give him second choice.  And Kissin Streetcry looks to have a chance.  I love to tell everyone when I pick a horse at 10-1 or better and it wins.