Pan Americana Handicap

Pan Americana Handicap
Grade II
A mile and one half
Firm Turf
$250,000
All horses, 3 years old and up

Welcome to the sunshine state for today’s feature, the Grade II Pan Americana over 12f on the turf course. A race for the real stayers and only nine entries but the morning line reckons three quarters of the field have a chance. Let’s take a look at the runners-

LEMON CREAM PIE(KY)

Has won seven of his twelve races and that alone means he must be feared. He’s also clearly still improving and although this is his first graded run he won a stakes over 11f latest going away by over six lengths. Likes to come from off the pace and with a trip as long as this in a small field, that shouldn’t create any problems. Looks to me like he’ll take a lot of beating today and looks nailed on for a top three at the very least.

GALACTIC BOMBER(KY)

Much more graded experience here but a win in the Grade I Man O War with a 111 sp he’s not managed another sp over 104. doesn’t seem to be any improvement left and will find several of these too good today. Will reach the top five if one or two other have a poor run.

TALES OF WAR

The most experienced in the field and also the most likely to finish last. Four runs in a row with sp’s of 97 or less with a best of a third place in an allowance is simply not going to cut it in this race. There are one or two nice runs in his past but even those would not be good enough for a top five here.

ANOTHER TENPIN TAP

The morning line favourite with earnings of almost $2 million in twenty races. Five recent runs with sp’s in excess of 105 in graded company is the model of consistency but that means what you see is what you get. Will run a 107-110 and that should at least guarantee a top three spot but there are some improving horses here who could improve past him. A worthy favourite but perhaps a little bit vulnerable.

SPANISH HARLAN(KY)

Another who looks to be out of his depth. Only one run with an sp in excess of 100 in his last eight although that was in a grade II. That run stands out like a beacon amongst the mediocracy though and he will be competing to avoid last place and no more.

LAND OF LEGENDS

Nice looking sp in his last run but it was only good enough for a second place in an allowance and it’s taking some jump from there to competing in a grade II. Struggled badly in his only other graded run and I can only see more of the same here. Will avoid last place but will need a lifetime best to reach the top five.

THE GIANT’S GONE(IRE)

Had put together a nice run of races with 100 plus sp’s until his last three. Two of those have been over too short a trip and the other over too far but even then those runs are a bit of a worry. Does have a 113 sp to win a stakes four runs ago and over this more suitable trip he should break the 100 barrier at least. He comes from miles off the pace but there is no real front runner here so coming from that far back with no real pace is more difficult. Look for a nice sp with probably a top five and some money earned.

SISTER AWAKE(KY)

Interesting this one. Has yet to race this far but his last three runs suggested he has been crying out for it. Has run 108 and 109 (twice) sp’s over trips that are too short and he could be a monster over this trip. The only fly in the ointment may be that with no front runners he may struggle to get the real pace he needs to come from the the back of the pack. Still he must rate a real threat and should reach the top three at least.

SOCRATES LL

Has won twelve of his twenty five races and has some real nice sp’s of 111. 104 and 106 recently but the problem is that they were all on dirt. His turf runs have been around 10 points lower in sp and that means he’s going to struggle to run a 102-103 today. Even if he did he would not be making the top three and will find it hard to make the top five.

Not as competitive a race as it first appears and even the 3/1 favourite looks vulnerable. For me it comes down to ANOTHER TENPIN TAP, SISTER AWAKE and LEMON CREAM PIE. I’ll take LEMON CREAM PIE to get the win but not by much from SISTER AWAKE who looks really dangerous.