Big Race Preview 3511
Early dominance in the long turf division and classic dirt division can be sorted out this week. In the long turf division is there a chance we will see the emergence of another great mile and a half runner? In the classic dirt division is there a four year old ready to step up or will the older runners hold sway? We also have several races for three year olds as they look forward to the spring classics.
There are a couple of grade two events in
Race: 3511.5315 John Scott Appreciation Stakes – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf
The long turf division in recent years has been dominated a couple of horses. It started with Allied Assault, continued with Sunnybank Memorial and
Creepshow has been mostly a middle distance runner in that mile and an eighth to mile a three sixteenths range. There is has been very good racking up a fifty percent winning percentage and amassing over five million in purses. He has not ventured often to the mile and a half distance but he has shown he is plenty capable. Back in October he won the grade one Coffee Fields Cup by two lengths earning a 113 speed figure. He is no stranger to those 110+ speed figures. He comes off an impressive win at the listed stakes level in preparation for this event. He is a closer usually falling more than ten lengths off the pace so his run will come late. He looks like he has what it takes to be a top runner in this division.
Black Coin is the second favorite on the morning line. He took a shot in the Breeder’s Bowl Mile back in October and not stretches out to a mile and a half. He is a lightly raced five year old coming off a win in a listed stakes at this distance where he earned a 108 speed figure. His running style could be tough to over come if he can improve his speed figure a bit. He is a stalker so the closers will have to catch him. If the pace is soft he could be very tough to track down. Stamina permeates his pedigree so the distance does not look like an issue. His one knock could be lack of competition at this level.
Max California is no transitioning from a three year to a four year old. As a three year old late last year he had some brilliant moments such as taking down Ottoman Turks, runner up in the Breeder’s Bowl Turf, in the grade one Coalminer Cup. He also ran third in the very prestigious Japan Cup. Now as a four year old can he continue to run at that level. He took some time off after the Japan Cup and made his four year old debut in a listed stakes at a longer distance. If he assumes his late season form of last year he could be a major player in this division. He is very likely to keep Creepshow company mid to back of the pack and make his run into the stretch.
Roadhouse Blues is a five year old veteran that can take advantage of lesser fields but he does not face that here. His speed figures and experience make him dangerous none the less. He is capable of the 110 speed figure and has a lot of experience at the graded level. He is in good form right now so should be respected. He likes to come from off the pace so look for him about mid pack in the early stages.
Race: 3511.0114
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one quarter on the Dirt
The always tough and always hard to predict older dirt router division has one of the first prestigious races of the year on tap. Absent is the Breeder’s Bowl winner and so to the runner up. This division has had its share of dominating older horses but looks pretty evenly matched at this point.
Mambo Bones gets the target as the morning line favorite. Interestingly the lightly raced six year old has never won at this distance. He has been close and has run a couple of 110+ speed figures at the distance. He just seems to always run up against that horse that just does a little better. He is a mid pack type runner and nearly always puts up a consistent performance. He will need to step up a bit here I think and at six years old you wonder if he is capable of that. He will be tough in this race though and if no one else really steps up he could easily win this race.
Iron Bock is the most interesting horse in this race from a handicapping stand point. He does not have the name or accomplishments of others in this race but he is clearly running the best speed figures. His last three have been super impressive 113,116 and 115. There is not another horse in here on that type of a roll right now. He is a four year old with room to improve and that should scare many in this field. His lack of experience at this level would worry me if his speed figure where not so darn good. The negative for him might be the fact there are a couple of other pace horses. Iron Bock though has shown he might be at his best sitting just off a strong pace. He looks a very serious threat here.
Passing Stone went into last year’s Bluegrass Derby as an undefeated colt. He would take the Travlers in the summer and be right in the mix of things at the World Cup, the Breeder’s Cup and several other races. He is potentially a horse that could be part of the pace scenario here. He has shown he can come from just off the pace as well as setting the pace. As with many successful three year olds the question always comes back to can they continue to run well and improve at four or have they topped out as three year olds? His first race as a four year looked pretty good as he ran third in a grade two event. It was a nice run and he can easily improve upon that here. He should be considered one of the top horses in this division at this time.
Bluegrass Derby winner Ataun is a bit of a long shot in this race. After winning the derby and hitting the board in both the Middle Jewel and New Yorker Atuan tailed off. He lost his form and skipped the Breeder’s Bowl card taking a couple of months off. He returned in a restricted stakes winning in very nice fashion. He followed that up finishing ahead of Passing Stone last time out in a grade two. It looks like he is capable of continuing to run at the top level as a four year old. The time off seems to have really helped him get back on track. He could benefit from the fact there are several front runner types in this race. He is a deep closer with a strong kick look out for this guy in deep stretch.
Race: 3511.0115
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
Number one ranked Nehi Orange leads this field of three year old fillies. Nehi Orange has really come into her own in her last two starts. She did enough early as a two year old to get a change to run in the Breeder’s Bowl where she ran a solid fifth. It was after that when she started to really separate herself. She would win a listed stakes and now has won back to back grade one events. She has gone to the lead in each of her three wins so it is difficult to believe she will do something else here. She could be vulnerable if contested on the lead or if she does not get the lead. She is in good form now and has to be considered one of the favorites for the Oaks. Hard to see her not in the mix here in the end.
Bellissima G is one of the other favorites in this race. She has show in her races that she likes to press or sit just off the early pace. The race would seem to set up favorably for her because she will have pace to chase. The problem is she has not faced as strong a front runner as Nehi Orange. If she gets caught up in the pace that could be a bad thing. She will need to improve and already has shown the ability to run a 100+ speed figure this early in the year. She wins quite a bit including three of her last four and could be the only real challenge to Nehi Orange.
Porn Starr ran behind Nehi Orange last time out. Porn Starr’s running style has fluctuated quite a bit so it is difficult to get an idea of what her running style could or will be. In her route races she has mostly come from off the pace. Since she is running nice speed figures and seemingly improving I would think she will likely come from off the pace. She has speed and has shown that speed in sprints. She keeps hanging around in routes and eventually she is likely to put it all together and make a big run.
In a race with a lot of speed It’s Rather Cloudy is an interesting runner. She is a deep closer who has won four of her five lifetime races. She is a well bred daughter of Pivotal who could end up loving the turf despite her success on dirt right now. Last time out was her first loss and an awful race altogether. She dropped back and never fired. She had a little extra time between races so maybe she needed the race. She faced many of the runners she faces again this weekend but this time I think she will be in better shape. With all the speed the closer should be a player.
Race: 3511.3216 The
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: One mile on the Turf
This is a player purchased grade one event. The thing about three year old turf fillies is that not much separates a maiden winner from a graded winner. This is evident by the fact the favorite is a seven to one on the morning line. Nearly every filly in this race is capable of a 90-94 speed figure it is a matter of finding which one will improve to a new level.
The favorite The Dark Mark has won three out of four races including a listed stakes. She is a stalker type runner that is never far off the pace and pounces in the stretch. She has run two races where she has earned a 90+ speed figure and so she seems most likely to take the step up here. Plus her running style means she will be in the race no matter what the pace. She was saddled with post thirteen and that could cost her dramatically.
With the other two favorites sitting outside of The Dark Mark I think you have to look inside to find a runner that will be in the mix. Bluegrass Racer is a runner that has done well running from inside post positions. In her last three races close to a mile she has been in the 10,12, and 11 post positions not running very well. I think you will see a dramatic improvement from her and her experience in graded races should prove to be a deciding factor as well. Look for her coming from off the pace.
Deep Dreams breaks from post eight and has the type of speed that probably puts her on the lead. She is well bred and I like the fact she is coming off of longer races. She should have plenty of gas in the tank to with stand pace pressure and still finish. She is a grade one winner already in her young career. Her last two where good second place runs and it looks like she is well positioned here to add another graded stakes win to her resume.
Race: 3511.4416 The Ring Of Fire Special – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: Seven furlongs on the Dirt
This is a player bought race. It happens to be on the same week there are two other graded races at this very same distance. This one is a grade one the other two are not offering a good opportunity for runners. The top two runners here are clearly head and shoulders above their competition which should make for an interesting race.
Our favorite is Procedure. He is a very well bred and talented looking runner having won four of his six lifetime starts. He has yet to run in a route yet and with
Folsom Blues is out of the same stable as Passing Stone. He is an undefeated colt by Fusaichi Pegasus. He has been pretty solid in his first three starts in not just winning his races but winning them with authority. He looks a little better than the favorite using a style of racing that puts him further off the pace. He has shown a strong kick and could be the one to beat. He will have to chase the favorite and that should set up for a great finish.