The TRILLIUM CRAFT Special

A large field of thirteen older mares will run in the first of two stakes on the card this week in Alabama. They will go a mile on the dirt course in this ungraded stakes and the winner will take home $30,000 of the $50,000 purse. This field is large and loaded with talent, especially considering the 5^th ranked horse in the division (Arawaza) will be running. She will go off as a co-favorite at 4/1, so expect a very competitive race.

1- GHOSTLY BREEZE(KY) 17-8-1-2 R Pollard 11/1

Stable lenny2 GHOSTZAPPER x PINE BLUFF x MEADOWLAKE

4 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Ghostly Breeze(KY) comes into Saturday’s race off of a career high 107 SP in her first race as a four year old. That came in an A-26000NW2S race, where she also went a mile on the dirt. In fact she is an impressive 9-5-0-1 at this distance and three of those wins came in stakes (including a grade 1 and grade 2). She is out of the grade “C” mare, Meadow Breeze, who has had three winners and two graded stakes winners from three foals. The majority of Meadow Breeze’s success came in dirt routes and we already know Ghostly Breeze(KY) loves this distance. Ghostly Breeze(KY) will try to close on the field and will be an excellent value (11/1) to steal this one with Alabama’s best jockey getting the mount.

2- CONCENTRATED(KY) 16-5-5-3 M Cisco 9/1

Stable acote7  PULPIT x POINT GIVEN x FOREST WILDCAT

4 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Concentrated(KY) is out of the grade “G” mare Spread Connection, who did the minimal damage that she did in dirt routes. Expect Concentrated(KY) to be another one rolling from the back of the pack, which could be to her advantage. She is an impressive 7-4-3-0 at 8F on the dirt and has posted her two best career SPs (104, 107) in her last two races, which were both at a mile on the dirt. She also beat #13 Zarallana head-to-head earlier this month in an allowance race. Her odds provide great value and I think she will round out the exotics nicely and possibly roll from the back with Oh So Awesome to a 1-2 finish in either order.

3- TEFERI’S REALM(KY) 18-6-4-1 A Lee 12/1

Stable mav1762  WAR CHANT x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x SADLER’S WELLS

4 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Teferi’s Realm(KY) has become accustomed to running at a mile on the dirt. Her last six trips have all been at 8F dirt and she has run her three highest career SPs (105,105,102) within those six races. She 9-5-1-0 lifetime at this distance on the dirt, but only one of those wins came in a stakes race. I am not certain that she is fully suited for this class because she ran well last time in almost the same race (ungraded stakes, for 4yo+ mares, mile on the dirt, $50,000 purse), but she still finished fourth against a smaller field that day. I would not expect her to finish better than 4^th on Saturday.

4- TACTICAL RAT(KY) 24-6-4-3 S Mills 19/1

Stable edenridge  TACTICAL CAT x RED RANSOM x MILL REEF

4 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Tactical Rat(KY) has already had a seasoned career considering she is just a four year old. She is out of a grade “C” mare, Rubbing From Rat who did all of her damage on the dirt as a two year old. She has had six foals, four of them have raced, three have won, and Tactical Rat(KY) is her only graded stakes winner. Tactical Rat(KY) is 2-0-0-0 at 8F, so the distance will not suit her unless she gets extremely loose on the lead. She is a 19/1 for good reason, so I would steer clear of her at the windows.

5- OH SO AWESOME 20-9-7-1 M Turk 4/1

Stable chilichili  AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT x ALYDAR

5 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Oh So Awesome comes in to this race as the worthy co-favorite after she dropped an Oh So Awesome SP of 114 in her last race in Arkansas. That was the highest SP in a dirt route in Arkansas since Pro Deed had a 114 SP in Week 2265 (10-2-2004). That amazing effort was also at a mile on the dirt in an A-30400NW1T race. She 2-1-0-1 at 8F, but  she is more experienced at the 7F distance. Her speed figures are consistently high, but she has never won a stakes race. Expect her to close furiously on the field and to be in contention at the end.

6- PORTELLO (IRE) 17-4-2-3 A Timpson 24/1

Stable deyoto3  HIGH CHAPARRAL (IRE) x COZZENE x WOODMAN

4 Year Old Homebred Light Grey Mare

Other than the fact that Portello(IRE) posted her career high SP (104) at this distance, she is a true long shot in this field. Even a repeat performance of that race will not be enough for her to win on Saturday as she does jump to an ungraded stakes for the first time in her career.

7- AZ A COMMANDER(IRE) 13-2-3-2 B Barger 19/1

Stable nickesyd  AZAMOUR (IRE) x TOM ROLFE x NEARCTIC

4 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Az A Commander(IRE) might close on a few horses late in the race on Saturday, but I would not expect her to contend. She has never tried a mile on the dirt and her connections have gotten a little too ambitious by entering her in a third consecutive stakes after she won an A-NW1X race. She has the ability to clean up in an A-NW3L or A-NW2x, but she is a long shot to finish better than fifth here on Saturday.

8- ALSO SWEET 31-10-7-6 M Ross 6/1

Stable pick6king  POINT GIVEN x TREMPOLINO x SWORD DANCE(IRE)

6 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Also Sweet has collected eight of her ten wins at a mile on the dirt and she has always been a factor at this distance (17-8-3-2). In the fall of her four year old campaign, she was practically unbeatable at the distance (even in graded stakes races). However, her last win came on February 10^th……2007. She still consistently posts triple digit SPs and contends in stakes, but I think her connections should find or bid an A-NW1Y allowance to get her back into the winner’s circle.

9- ARAWAZA 22-7-4-6 E Sharp 4/1

Stable lopickles  A.P. INDY x DEPUTY MINISTER x MR. PROSPECTOR

5 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Arawaza comes in as the fifth ranked horse in the division, but she has now been out of the winner’s circle for over six months. In her defense, since she won the grade 1 JUJITSU attack last August, she has only raced four times and three of those races were grade 1s. She is good for an SP of between 100-110, which may be good enough to win if it is towards the high end and if Oh So Awesome bounces a little off of her amazing last race. Finally, Arawaza is out of the grade “F” mare Kamikaze, who did all of her damage in dirt routes.

10- HOLLOW BAY(GB) 16-6-1-3 C Riddle 6/1

Stable peeps3  BEAT HOLLOW (GB) x RAHY x GREEN DESERT

4 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Hollow Bay(GB) is based on the grade “F” he mare Blue Creek Bay, who never won on the dirt. She comes in here with some momentum winning her last two races with very impressive 108 SPs. Both races were at a mile on the dirt, but they were allowance races. I am expecting a bounce from her on Saturday and I do not think the hottest or one of the hottest horse(s) in the will be a factor. 

11- SJ’s THEATRICS(KY) 13-4-1-0 S Holman 27/1

Stable sjmeola6  SILVER GHOST x THEATRICAL(IRE) x TURN-TO

4 Year Old Homebred Light Grey Mare

SJ’s Theatrics(KY) does come in with two straight wins at a mile on dirt to run her career record to 4-3-0-0 at that distance/surface combination. The bad news is that one of those wins was in the slop, one came in a CPU restricted allowance and the third win came in a (T) allowance. Her career high 100 SP would need to be improved upon for her to compete Saturday, so I would not bet on her to win, place, or show.

12- DESERT CONNECTION(ITY) 24-4-4-3 G Blinn 14/1

Stable epsom DANZIG CONNECTION x STORM CAT x FORTY NINER

4 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Desert Connection(ITY) is based on the grade “G” he mare Desert Orchid who notched all three of his career on the dirt. She absolutely loves going exactly a mile on the dirt (9-3-2-2) and she has posted her best four career SPs (108, 106, 102, 99) all at this distance. Her most recent effort at a mile produced the 106 SP, which was good enough for third in an ungraded stakes. Expect no better than third from her on Saturday, but she could round out a nice paying trifecta.

13- ZARALLANA(ENG) 19-6-3-4 W Balzer 10/1

Stable sonsierra  EL PRADO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x FUSAICHI PEGASUS

4 Year Old Homebred Dark Grey Mare

Zarallana(ENG) is based on the grade “F” he mare Piau Engaly who only won once on the dirt. Most of her two year old campaign was dedicated to the turf, but she eventually switched to the dirt in November 2006 and became a huge player on the third year old female circuit. After winning the California Oaks and running third in the Bluegrass Oaks, her SPs have remained solid but she has only won once. Her connection had the right idea running her in an A-NW1S race last time out, because she is more suited for that condition than a stakes right now.

FINAL ANALYSIS

I am going with a 2-5 exacta box. Arawaza (#9) has to be respected because she is extremely talented and her divisional ranking (5^th) shows that. Finally, watch out for the 1 and 12 to possibly get in on the bottom of a trifecta ticket. Good luck!

WIN: 2, 5, 9

EXACTA: 2-5 BOX, 5-9 OVER 2-5-9, 9 OVER 1-2-5-12

TRIFECTA: 2-5-9 OVER 2-5-9 OVER 1-2-5-9-12 ($1 TICKET COSTS $18)