Ring of Fire in Nevada

A risky carding seems to have paid off for the Nevada track.  Forty-eight hours before the entry box closed it looked as though carding an inaugural Grade I race for three-year-olds on a weekend already loaded with big name races was going to lead to a weak field.  But last minute entries have swollen the race to eleven highly regarded runners, including a couple top five sprinters.

While this time of year, many are focused on the Derby trail, there are riches and fame awaiting those who run around one turn as well.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1  WABI SABI(KY)  (ELUSIVE QUALITY x PIVOTAL(GB) x IRISH RIVER(FR)) bred by surf4bass1, trained by leeballs (Corza Stables, 6%)  Odds: 11-1

One way for a filly to gain extra stakes points is to win them against the boys.  She probably has her work cut out for her, as her figures don’t match up with others.  Jockey is looking for a first win in 2008.  Forgive Wabi’s two previous graded tries – they were grassy routes.  Since switching to dirt two races ago, she’s been showing dramatic improvement, and she’s three out of four in sprints.  Continued proportional improvement would make her a factor.  She has a tendency to win every other race, and she’s coming here off a loss…

PP 2  CHATTOOGA(KY)  (WAR CHANT x PLEASANT COLONY x RAISE A NATIVE)  bred and trained by hoofers (Hoofers Stables, 6%)  Odds: 8-1

Like this colt, barn may not win often, but it has a very nice ITM record.  Chattooga will be a factor at least early.  He has a tendency to fade late and that seems his likely fate here, but it would be a mistake to leave him out of exotics.  He makes his first graded start after three overnight starts in his brief career.

PP 3  BROKE BACK(KY) (CAT THIEF x FLYING SPUR(AUS) x DANZIG)  bred and trained by mrsardis (Mrsardis Stables, 15%)  Odds: 9-1

He entered the Breeders Bowl Juvenile as fifth choice in the wagering. coming off a two-year-old campaign where he had four wins and two seconds in six starts.  That included a win in the Grade III Cryogenics.  Despite a mild rally in the Breeders Bowl, he really wasn’t a factor.  Barn gave him three months off, and he returned to an off track.  It’s hard to know if his poor race is due to the layoff, the off track, or a genuine decline in form.  He’s still the number 31 ranked routing three year old and still has a legitimate shot to make the Derby field.  Not sure what to make of the entry back in sprints, but he’s too dangerous to ignore.

PP 4  MYTHMAKER(FL) (PICO CENTRAL (BRZ) x MYTHIC TRIBE x NUREYEV) bred and trained by seedlysub (UFO Testing Center, 15%)  Odds 43-1

Despite coming into this off three straight wins, he hasn’t been given much respect by the oddsmakers.  That’s not much of a surprise – he’s been beating small fields at minor tracks in unspectacular times.  It’s a long way from Mexican allowance company to a Grade I race.

PP 5  SWIFTSURE(KY) (DEHERE x FORTY NINER x DANZIG) bred and trained by sanchez (Bigkev and Bjbanditfarms, 19%)  Odds: 7-1

Winner of a World Cup race, he still maintains a number three divisional ranking.  Following the World Cup, he didn’t show a lot of improvement in his next couple races, including the Grade I Lever Sparky where he finished out of the money for the only time in his career.  But his first start as a three-year-old was very encouraging.  While he got caught late by Speedtown after taking over the lead, he showed a marked improvement in speed figures.  He may be ready to resume his assault on the sprinting division.  Gets Nevada’s best rider in the irons.

PP 6  A CONCEIT(KY) (RAHY x VICE REGENT x RISEN STAR) bred and trained by seedly2 (UFO Training Center, 14%) Odds: 25-1

Uncoupled stablemates go off as the longest shots in the race.  In both cases, it may make sense after so many wins to try a stakes race, but with so many in here able to exceed their speed figures by 20 points, the jump to Grade I is ambitious.  The good news is that every stable in the UFO Training Center is better at this game than I am, so my doubts mean nothing.  Good luck to them both.

PP 7  SUNSET MESA(KY) (SKY MESA x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by twoofus2 (Twoofus Stables, 15%)  Odds: 7-1

Opened his three-year-old campaign with a nice win over Speedtown in the Grade III Special Bid.  Today’s pace scenario sets up nicely to give him a similar trip likely.  His rally fell short in his follow-up race, and his speed figures regressed.  Those mixed signals make this a tough one to call.  That he finished with interest last time and gets an extra furlong for his rally swing the balance toward positive feelings.

PP 8  PROCEDURE(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x DANZIG x DAMASCUS) bred and trained by super1 (More Evil Than The (sic) Evil Empire!, 18%)  Odds: 4-1

Colt earns favoritism by earning a triple digit speed figure last time and winning three of his last four and four of his six lifetime races.  What’s missing in that résumé is a graded win, and the Supers hope to rectify that today.  There’s no arguing he deserves to be the favorite based on speed figures, but he’s no shoo-in.  His overnight win last time was against an undistinguished field, and even his DelPenn third came against an unusually weak DelPenn field.  No surprise if he wins, but we’ll look for better value elsewhere.

PP 9  FOLSOM BLUES(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x NUREYEV x BLUSHING GROOM(FR)) bred by crazyjoe, trained by jimcougar (The Evil Empire, 15%)  Odds: 5-1

It is undeniable: the main reason for rooting for this colt is the name.  Word has it that Lenny will ask jockey Brenner to wear all black for the race.  Beyond the Johnny Cash references, there are other reasons to expect a win.  He’s undefeated in three not-close races throwing huge figures every time.  Like Procedure, he hasn’t beaten a strong field yet, but he’s won them all so convincingly, that the class rise doesn’t look like a major issue.

PP 10  DE FU(KY) (DEHERE x FUSAICHI PEGASUS x CANNONADE) bred and trained by minnesota (ONEWORLD Stables, 11%) Odd: 6-1

The only colt here mentioned in the Bugler’s “Bluegrass Derby Watch.”  Their comment questioned De Fu’s breeding for the distance, and the trainer seems to agree, dropping him back to sprinting here.  That makes a lot of sense: he’s one of five routing and three of four sprinting.  De Fu tried to run away with the Breeder’s Bowl, but faded late, and he’s been following that pattern ever since.  He may be able to hold on with the shorter distance.

PP 11  SPEEDTOWN(KY) (SPEIGHTSTOWN x DANZIG x SEEKING THE GOLD) bred and trained by citation (Citation Stables, 12%) Odds: 5-1

Veteran of the group is the only one with more than ten starts.  He’s been in the money three times in four graded starts, but is looking for his first graded win.  Stalking speed and improving form make him an obvious contender.  Would not be a surprise to anyone.

Conclusion: 

• There are four graded winners: Swiftsure, De Fu, Sunset Mesa, and Broke Back.
•  There are two early types: Chattooga and Mythmaker. 
• There are two early/pressers: De Fu and Procedure. 
• There are five pressers: Swiftsure, Speedtown, Sunset Mesa, Wabi Sabi, and A Conceit
• There are two sustained runners: Broke Back and Folsom Blues. 
• There are two with 100+ speed figures: Procedure and Folsom Blues.
• There are five coming off of wins: Mythmaker, A Conceit, Procedure, Folsom Blues, and Speedtown

Timmn’s picks: Folsom Blues, Sunset Mesa, Speedtown