2021 RUNNING OF THE BLUEGRASS DERBY

Fast Horses + Fast Track = Fast Times in Kentucky!!!   It’s Bluegrass Derby time and some of the Fastest 3 year old horses in the game will be racing on a Fast track in the hope of producing the Fastest time to win one of the games premier races!   As always, a full field of 20 horses have entered this prestigious race.  Quite a few of the top trainers in the game will also be in attendance at the track with a number of them with runners in this race.    Tenpoint has loaded the field with three runners and Given will be combating with two of his own.

We have two Eclipse winners running in this race with Spinround entering the only filly in the field Dawngoesdowntoday, and Fleetwood entering Fleetwood Flatline.

Two horses lead the group with 6 wins each, Dragon’s Deputy (one of Given’s pair) and House of Rock entered by Kingab.

Also in the Derby is The Free World, who is out of Hall of Fame game mare First Degree Bern.  The Free World will be her fourth child to compete in the Bluegrass Derby. 

Ten of the entrants have already pocked over a million in purse funds and 14 have picked up a victory in a G1 race.   We have some excellent talent in this one so lets take a look at this field.  And then I will place some fantasy bets with a $300 bankroll.

1  DAWNGOESDOWNTODAY  16/1   (owned by Spinround, Empire State Racing residency) won an Eclipse award last year and is the only filly entered this year into the Bluegrass Derby.  She is daughter to game-mare Scatterlings, who was a listed stake winner and she’s had nice success in the breeding barn.   Seven of her ten children have won a stake race and this includes two with G1 wins which includes this filly and her half-sister Who Watches (who won the Breeders’ Bowl Filly Juvy Turf).  Quality Road is the father to this filly who has won four time in seven starts and a nice pocketbook full of more than $1.5 million.

As a two-year old winning Eclipse winner, her season consisted of breaking her maiden first time on the race track.   She elevated her game to graded company in her second start, the G2 Vermont BB Juvenile Filly where she would steadily move up to finish third, two lengths behind the winner.  Dawngoesdowntoday remained in Vermont for her third start, the G3 Canada Day.  This race would be on an off-track surface but that did not hinder her as she came from almost 5 off the lead at the halfway point of the 6.5f race to finish second by only a quarter length.

Despite these decent outcomes in the grade level, she was pulled back to run in a mile for the first time in an allowance race.   Dawngoesdowntoday had no problem overpowering the field as she came from off the pace to walk to the line with a solid two and a half length win.  Things looked good in the route distance for her and she returned to graded company and competed in the Frickazee Stakes (G1).  Here, she took her normal position near mid-field and fought her way to the front in the stretch run and won by just shy of two lengths, another fine performance and convincing win.    She had one more race to compete in to wrap up her 2020 season and that was the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly.   Going slightly more in distance this time (8.5f), she found herself over seven lengths off the lead at the half, the most to date that she trailed the leader at this point of the race.  She bore down hard for the stretch run and hit the line with another filly at the same time, but the photo would favor Dawngoesdowntoday and she became an Eclipse winner, matching her half-sister Who Watches and she won on the grass.  This race became the first time she etched out a triple digit speed and it came at 101.

Dawngoesdowntoday raced only one time this year and that was against the boys in the G2 Sleepy Fan.  She fell further behind at the half, and was in the 11^th spot at the half and 9 back from the lead in the 8.5 furlong race, the worse spot she has had in her career at the mid-point.  But she wasn’t deterred by this as she ran her race and finished second, one stride off the winner with a 107 speed and she beat out American Chorus (5^th) who is also in the Bluegrass.

Some may want to write her off as being a girl competing with the guys but this gal sure looks like she fits in and Dawngoesdowntoday proved in her last race she can beat the guys.  Gotta give the girl the respect she deserves as she could open a lot of eyes on Derby Day!

2 BOHO THE OX  17/1 (owned by Beerkeg, Drunken Jockeys Club residency) is the first child out of game-mare Speightthirsty, who won 8 times during her racing days.  He is sired by War Front and has won half of his 8 lifetime starts with just over $600,000 in purse money.

As a two-year-old, it took Boho the Ox three starts to break his maiden and that occurred the first time he competed in a race going a mile in distance, which came in August.  This first win would be the start of something nice.  A four-race win streak.   The next win came in October and his general race style is to sit off the leader by a close amount and take up the fight in the second half of the race.  He did this in the allowance race, also at a mile and moved onto a listed stake race where he earned his third trip to the winner’s circle.

So far, he had won races by just over a length to roughly 2 ¾ lengths and he was ready for his first G1 race, in the Movieland Futurity, with a sloppy surface.  The moisture did not effect his outcome as he settled back into the sixth spot early on and that set Boho up nicely for a good fluid late run where he caught the front runner Giant Supercell (who is entered in the derby) and drew away to win by two lengths nailing a career best speed of 103. 

2021 racing season then came and it would lead to the end of his 4-race win streak which came in the 9f G3 The Scam.   Boho the Ox would run second for almost half the race and faded off in the second half to finish fourth and more than 6 strides behind winning The Free World.  In this race, Boho was able to finish ahead of pace setting Dark Voodoo (also in the Derby), who finished fifth.

Boho the Ox last ran in the California Derby (Derby Lock race) and was a bit off his game running flatly, staying around the fifth spot most of the race.  He finished behind tow other derby entrants in this race, American Chorus (winner) and Commonwealth Ready (second).  Boho had a nice win streak going but when the calendar flipped from 2020 to 2021, his race finishes have flipped too.   Things will need to flip in a different direction to get this Ox to the line first.

3  AMERICAN CHORUS   11/1 (owned by Tenpoint, All-Stars Racing residency) is sired by American Pharoah and is the son to Castsagainshadow.  He is the third of four children out of this game mare and the second to win at the graded stake level.  Although the mare only won twice in 19 starts, she has shown a much better ability in the breeding barn.

American has 9 starts under his belt with a 4-1-2 racing record and over $1.6 million in earnings.   He is a very slow starting horse and I’m estimating he will be in one of the rear five spots in the early stages of this race.  His late running ability has been impressive.

As a two year old, he ran seven times and broke his maiden first time out.  He raced in 5 grade level races before wrapping 2020 up in a listed stake.  His first appearance in the grade group was in the Happy Easter (G3) where he finished third and he would repeat that third place finish in the Memorial Day.   He would improve a notch in the G2 Horsehead Juvenile, finishing 2^nd and moving up from the 9^th spot at the ¾-pole.  In September, he ran a route for the first time at 8.5 f in the G1 North Folk and notched his first G1 win as well as his first 100 speed.   This win secured an entry spot into the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile where American Chorus would finish fourth behind Misyoubrotherrick (2^nd) Commonwealth Ready (3^rd), but ahead of Settle for Pride (8^th), Democratic Process (9^th) and Dark Voodoo (13^th), all entered into the Derby race.  American finished fourth in this race, over two lengths behind the winner.

The 2020 season concluded in a residency listed stake, a race that American won by a length at a mile with another 100 speed.

The new 2021 season fired off with an appearance in the G2 Sleepy Fan where American, for the first time, found himself over ten lengths off the lead at the midpoint.  He sliced this deficit down to four strides and finished fifth, finishing behind Dawngoesdowntoday (who was second).  Despite the 103 speed, the fifth place finish was concerning.

American Chorus got the ship upright in his last start, the California Derby, which secured his spot in the Bluegrass Derby with a very nice victory and 107 speed.  This time he showed he was capable of overcoming a 10 stride disadvantage as he rallied to the finish line to win by a stride and beat out Commonwealth Ready who finish second in his shadows and Boho the Ox who was a further back 5^th.

American Chorus enters off a very nice win in a derby lock race and definitely showed he is ready for this big race and he is one of the three runners in this race from trainer Tenpoint.

4  FLORIDA AFFAIRS   28/1 (owned by Corza, East-West Connection residency) is a child out of G1 winner Corzaffair, who won just shy of $2 million in her day and has 13 children with three winning stake races.  Of the three, Florida Affairs is the only grade winner.   Florida is sired by California Chrome and has won twice in eight tries.  He has the lowest bankroll in the field with $370,000 but still a nice amount for a three-year-old. 

His two year season started with a quick win, but that came on the turf in a Hot race.   He found some speed improvement going to the dirt and an allowance race in his next start where he finished second and missed the top spot by a quarter stride and notching a 70 speed, much better than the previous turf race that was 62.   He took a shot in the G3 group next, running in the Memorial Day but did not have much to offer, finishing 8^th, more than 5 off the winner and behind derby entrant American Chorus who was third.  Florida returned to the allowance group and went a mile for the first time on an off-track and finished second, nearly two back behind the winner.

After this promising second, he returned to the grade level in the G3 Skeye Jameson Memorial where he ran in his typical mid-field position and was able to pass tiring horses finishing second, but well behind the winner who beat him by 2-1/4 lengths.  Florida Affairs continued with his hopes in grade level races and moved up to the 9f The Ransom (G2) where he was taken up to the front and ran second, a change of racing styles, but he could not hold onto his position and finished a well back 8 lengths behind Slash Dot Murder (who is entered into the Derby) and ended up seventh.

Florida Affairs wrapped up the 2020 season with a year end G3 Merry Christmas race.  He was in his usual mid-field spot and was able to advance from being 5 back at the half to within 1 ¾ lengths of the winner and ended the race in fourth.  Finishing second in this race was Derby entrant The Free World. 

Florida Affairs made only one start in 2021 and that was in the Vermont is 4 Lovers (G1) in which he continued his mid-field racing style and finally earned his first grade level win and did it with a career best speed of 104.  In this race, he was able to beat Slash Dot Murder (5^th) as well as a few other Derby hopefuls that include Neva Kee (2^nd), Nothing To Justify (3^rd) and Giant Supercell (11^th).  Florida has been a double-digit longshot in each of his grade level starts and taking this win could turn out to be a nice confidence booster and set him up nicely for the Derby.

5  SETTLE FOR PRIDE 16/1 (owned by Supertaffy, MIDAS residency) is one of a dozen children out of 5-time winning Goodrich Castle.  Four of her children have won a stake race which includes three that have done this within the graded racing level.   Settle for Pride has just as many wins as his mother but has done much better in the earnings department with over $600,000 bankrolled.  He is sired by Arogate and owner Supertaffy offered up these comments on his colt “One of the babies out of the Goodrich Castle mare. Her oldest baby Settle for Satin won the Sandcastle Classic but she hasn’t produced a classic winner since. Pride gave a me a little scare when his first start off the layoff was a bust but the next start he bounces back and the 108 speed made me want to give a shot at the derby.”

This is one feisty colt who demands to run on the lead and has done that in nearly all his starts when leaving the chute.  In 2020, he broke his maiden first time out, holding on by a quarter stride.  After that win, he ran in a pair of allowance races and repeated with another pair of gate-to-wire finishes, winning the first by just under two lengths and the second one by a length and a half.

The two wins set him up for a big jump in class as Settle for Pride moved into the G1 End of the Line Futurity.  He fired out fast and had a four-length lead at the half that grew an incredible 9 strides at the third call.  The late runners started moving in on him, but he held them off to be the victor by a length and a half, with Misyoubrotherrick who was second under the line and Nothing to Justify closing to take 6^th, both entrants in the Bluegrass.  From here, it was onto the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile where he once again took his spot on the lead but the competition came on and he was quickly overtaken just past the half and finished 8^th, this time behind Misyoubrotherrick (2^nd) and also outdone by other foes that are in the Derby that include Commonwealth Ready (3^rd), American Chorus (4^th) but ahead of Democratic Process (9^th) Fleetwood Flatline (11^th) and Dark Voodoo (13^th).

The 2021 season kicked off with a listed stake event, probably to re-establish form after a winter recess, where Settle for Pride took the lead but faded in the late part of the race to finish fifth.  He took on another listed stake event, this time holding off the lead for the first time, running third early and sliding his way into second and hitting the line with the front runner resulting in a favorable photo-finish win and a career best 108.

Quite a few front runners in this field and it may proof to be a tough task to be the early leader.  But if Settle for Pride relaxes a bit, he could run a similar race as his last start which may result in a repeat win.

6  SUBTLY STATED 18/1 (owned by Steve555, Universal Racing Club residency) is sired by Exaggerator and is one of three G1 winners from this sire.  He is the son to Subtle Scat who won three times on the track and her very first child.  Subtly Stated has competed in eight races and picked up five wins which has netted him just shy of $1.1 million.

As a two year old, Subtly Stated earned two quick wins, breaking his maiden first time out and then followed that up with another victory in a conditional NW2L allowance race.  He generally likes to run in the back quarter of the field and delights showing off his late run ability.  After getting those first pair of wins, he jumped another tier into the listed stakes and things cooled off a bit.  His first stake race he would pull in fourth, his first time not going to the winner’s circle.  He would compete at a mile in his next outing and finishing 7^th out of 10 would bring into question his ability to handle a rout.  He wrapped up 2020 going in a 7.5 furlong listed stake and showed improvement by taking the third spot.

The calendar turned from December to January and the 2021 season began with Subtly running another listed stake at 7.5 furlongs and this time he would capture the elusive stake win he sought, winning the race strongly by two strides.  In March, he was brought back to the route distance, this time going 8.5f in the G3 Buccaneer Derby.  He would come from off the pace to drive to the front of the field and take the top honors by 1 ¾ strides and also record a 101 speed in the process. 

It was now time to see how real that route race was, after the disastrous one he had as a 2yo.  And it would be a tough test as Subtly Stated was entered in the derby lock race Wooden Indian (9f).  After breaking out of the gate and running 12^th for a good chunk of the race, he made his move after making to the mid-field marker and advanced on the leaders.  He really got his run in hyperdrive as he flew through the stretch, took the lead and won by 3/4- of a length (and career best speed of 104), beating out front runner Giant Supercell, who finished second.

Subtly Stated has convinced me he can handle a route and with that late speed, adding on another furlong to go 10 in this race should be no problem.  But there are lots of speedy jack rabbits in this field to catch and based on the three race win streak he brings into this race, it is within his ability to run them down.

7 DARK VOODOO  12/1 (ownd by Francua4, Empire State Racing residency) is a scratchbred horse and is the only G1 winner to be sired by Good Magic.   Residing in the DS spot is Pioneerof the Nile and a very nice Ghostzapper takes the DDS position.

Voodoo has earned in excess of $1.1 million with this breedingline and has visited the winners circle four times in his 7 career starts.  As a two year old, he caught fire early on.  Breaking his maiden first time out with a gate-to-wire effort, he repeated that two more times with an allowance victory followed by a G3 win at 8.5f in the Charcoal Breeder’s Cup.  The perfect three for three winning start got Voodoo into the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile, but his luck ran out in this race as he finished 13^th in the field and other Bluegrass runners finished ahead of him, included Misyoubrotherrick, Commonwealth Ready and American Chorus who occupied the top four spots.

Things improved a little bit in 2021 when running in the G3 Scam at 9 furlongs as this early front runner got a 101 speed for the first time but finished fifth in the field, some six lengths behind The Free World (1^st) and just behind Boho the Ox (4^th).  Voodoo showed he was not a write-off after his last two disappointing outings as he rebounded with a 103 speed and was overtaken in the stretch by Dragon’s Deputy as he finished second this time and two behind the winner. 

Voodoo sought his position in the Bluegrass and secured it in the Arkansas Derby lock race as two other horses battled with him for the lead in the first half to the race but Voodoo would outpower them and take control for the second half and took the win pulling away from the field by 2 3-4 lengths and a solid 106 sped. 

Dark Voodoo had that pair of races that could have taken a toll on him and rattled him, but he seems to have put those behind him and winning the recent Arkansas should add a good boost this entrants confidence level.

8  THE FREE WORLD 10/1 (owned by Plesnttap, Northwest Racing Circuit residency) has pocketed over $1.1 million in seven starts with four wins and a pair of seconds.    His mother is 10-time winning First Degree Bern, a mare who won both the Bluegrass Oaks and the Breeders’ Bowl Distaff.   Two of her children have won over $5 million and are both Eclipse winners, Low Fidelity (who finished second in both the Bluegrass Derby and New Yorker) and General Crook (Bluegrass Derby and Middle Jewel winner).   The mother has bred her share of horses who have done exceptionally well in the Bluegrass Derby runners, and has yet another, All Cat No Hattle, who was fifth in his appearance in the Derby.  The father to this entrant is Empire Maker.

The Free World competed five times as a two year old, two of the races were in maiden allowance races, and two in allowance slots where he won twice and had a second.   He finished the 2020 season racing in the year end G3 Merry Christmas where he landed his first triple-digit speed of 101 and finished second by a quarter stride, but he held off Florida Affairs who was fourth and is also in the Derby race.

The Free World tends to like racing in the front third of the field and has done very well with this positioning.  In his first race of 2021, he appeared in the G3 Scam and had a beautiful run.  He laid off the early pace and cut loose in the second half of the 9-furlong race and bought himself a win, pulling away from the field by three lengths and a career best speed of 109.  In this race, he was able to beat a pair of horses that will take another shot at him in the Derby, which included Boho The Ox (4^th) and Dark Voodoo (5^th).

The Florida Derby (derby lock race) would secure The Free World’s free pass into the Bluegrass as he equaled his best speed of 109 and put in a similar effort as in the Scam winning by nearly 2 lengths.   In this race, he put a target on his back for Neva Kee (3^rd), Hurricane Legend (7^th) and Misyoubrotherriick (11^th) who will be seeking revenge in the Derby.   It could prove to be a difficult task to take down the Florida Derby winner as he has been red-hot and putting out his fire will not be easy.

9  DRAGON’S DEPUTY 15/1 (owned by Given, GR Simsters residency) comes from Hall of Famer Dream Dragon who got into the Hall  based on her breeding ability.  She has bred 15 children, three have wins at the G1 level, one at the G3 level and six mor in listed stakes.  Impressive to have 10 stake winners out of one game mare and she was mated with Deputy Minister to breed Dragon’s Deputy.

Dragon’s Deputy had a near perfect two-year campaign, winning five of six starts.  After breaking his maiden in his debut, he quickly followed that with a listed stake win.  After that, he set aim on the G1 Equinics Albert Einstein but fell short, finishing third and beat by Fleetwood Flatline.  The experience was good for him as he came back to win three stake races consecutively starting with the G2 Future Stakes, drawing off to win by over a stride.  Next winning notch came in the G3 Nashua Special, his first run in a mile distance, and he just got to the line and won a three-way photo and just outlasted Nothing to Justify who was also in that photo.   The third win came in the G1 Let it Begin where Dragon sported a 100 speed for the first time and took the victory by a length and a half.

The Dragon would test the turf waters to kick off 2021 in the G2 Fainting Goat Nightmares and put in a decent effort, finishing third but pretty much stayed two back off the leader for much of the race.  He returned back to the dirt in the G1 Funky Buddha this past March and hit a 106 speed and a solid 2 length win and over taking pace setting Dark Voodoo in the stretch, who finished second.

Dragon’s Deputy usually takes an early spot in the middle of the field in the early stages of the race and has a nice steady pace in the later part to reel in the field, a method that has paid off with over $1.1 million in earnings.   He is well bred, won at 9 furlongs in his last start, and adding another furlong will not be a problem for him.  Very capable of repeating and is one of a pair of entrants for Given.

10  COMMONWEALTH READY 16/1 (owned by Ianwhipkey, no residency association) has won over $1 million in purses and is the only horse with over a million in winnings in the field that has not won a grade level race.   Despite winning two races out of nine starts, he has been pesky in hitting the board with consistency and doing it seven times.    Owner Ianwhipkey offered these comments about Commonwealth “While yet to win a graded race, has been ultra competitive against top tier competition for the last year. I expect that his tactical speed will give him every opportunity to win this race down the lane. I am hopeful that his strong foundation and “strength of schedule” will finally pay off. To quote Dumb and Dumber: “So, you’re telling me there’s a chance!””.

He is the son to 13-time winning game-mare Bluegrass Diva and is the first of two children out of this lady.  He has been sired by More Than Ready.  As a two year old, he was able to capture his two career wins immediately, breaking his maiden in his first start and then following that up with a listed stake win.  Since that win, he has been racing in the grade level which started with the G2 High Roller’s Juvenile where this front runner battled early to hold the top spot but eventually was overtaken and finished second. 

He would encounter another battle on the front end where he had the top spot in the G2 Stanford but it would be a late runner that would hit the line first with Commonwealth stuck in the second spot, a stride on the short end.   Moving into the North Fork (G1), Commonwealth would settle back into second and would manage to advance to the lead past the half.  That would not last long as American Chorus would rally past him and again, Commonwealth Ready would be second best.  His performances were good enough to earn him a spot in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile and Commonwealth would duel it out with two others for the top spot, a position he would eventually take over by the ¾-pole but he would end up in the dust again, finishing third behind Derby entrant Misyoubrotherrick but he did get the best of American Chorus this time, who finished fourth and beat out other Derby hopefuls Settle for Pride (8^th) and Democratic Process (9^th). 

Commonwealth finished fourth in the G2 Saint Vincent and Felipe Alou to start the 2021 season and neither race did he grab the leading spot early on and ran rather flatly throughout each race.  He showed a different style in his last event, the California Derby, where he took a mid-field position for the first time and rallied to finish second behind his foe, American Chorus.  In this race, he was ahead of another Derby entrant, Boho the Ox (finished 5^th).

Commonwealth Ready has had his struggles getting to the winner’s circle and the change in racing style in his last race maybe the right formula to get there and what better place to do it then in the Bluegrass Derby.

11 SPENT ON WEAPONS 20/1 (owned by Tenpoint, All-Star Racing residency) is a scratchbred horse with a bloodline comprised of War Front (born 2002) as the sire and a backside that dates back many years with Seattle Slew (born 1974) as DS and an even older His Majesty (born 1968) as DDS.

Spent on Weapons pedigree has worked well as he has won four of his ten starts and been ITM 8 times with a bank count that has in excess of $800,000.  As a two year old, he raced eight times and broke his maiden in his second start.  He quickly picked up a second win in his next start running with allowance company.  From here, the qualified front running colt leaped into the G3 4^th Of July but was run down by three other horses in the final furlong of the 6.5f race to finish fourth, just under a stride off the winner and this came on an off-track.   He followed this with another off-track surface race but returned to the allowance level and finished third going a mile for the first time.

In September, he took a test run on the turf in a listed stake race and started to fade off the lead pretty quickly past the half of the mile race and finished eight.   By November, he was back to the dirt but dropped back to a 5f sprint distance and this time battled on the front end and was able to pull off the win by a quarter stride.   He would wrap up the season by going in the G1 class for the first time, in the Movieland Futurity.  Another wet track awaited Spent on Weapons and he shot out to the lead but did not have enough to last there and finished third, beat out by Boho the Ox by just over two lengths with Giant Supercell finishing second, but Spent did hit the 100 speed mark for the first time.

2021 came and Spent on Weapons continued to compete in the grade level, starting the year off in the G3 Good Cow.  He immediately got into a heated duel for the front spot and would eventually take over the lead but not for long as a late closing gelding would run him down and Spent would finish second losing by a length and a half.    He would finally get a grade level win and that came in his most recent start, the All Saints Derby, which is a Derby Lock race.  Once again, he was on an off-track but in this race, he had no problem getting to the lead and Spent easily opened up on the field and was more than 7 lengths ahead of the field by the ¾-pole.  The lead may have seemed comfy but the field was bearing down on him and Spent on Weapons just hit the line in time to win by a head and a career best 105 speed.   Slash Dot Murder was second right next to him at the line who will be seeking revenge in the Derby race. 

Spent on Weapons will be out there early fighting to get the top spot and it will be hard for him to break away from the field.  He’s entered in with a tough bunch and he will need to hold off 19 others this time and if he somehow can break away with the lead, that could be his best chance to beat them all.

12  SLASH DOT MURDER  17/1  (owned by Given, GR Simsters residency) is one of two entries by Given and is sired by Bernardini,   He is the third of four children out of 9-time winning, stake winning game-mare Red Slasher.  All of her first three children have won stake races, including two at the G2 level.   Slash Dot Murder has earned four wins in seven outings, grossing $568.000 in earnings to date.

As a two year old Slash Dot Murder earned two quick wins in a maiden allowance and a conditional NW2L allowance race.   After these wins, he slid into the G3 Trixy Delight’s Special but he was unable to keep a perfect career going as he finished 7^th more than three lengths behind the winner and behind Derby foe Nothing to Justify, who was second.   After this disappointing outcome, he returned to the allowance class and would pick up another win, this time by 2 and a half lengths.   Hoping his confidence was restored, Slash Dot Murder was asked to run in the 9f G2 The Ransom.  His confidence was restored as he came from a mid-field position, which seems to be his preference, and rolled to the line to take the win by half a stride and hitting the 100 speed for the first time.    He would be out Florida Affairs who is entered in the Derby, and finished 7^th in The Ransom.

With the two year old season behind him, he would kick off the 2021 season in the G1 Vermont is for Lovers.   After trailing by more than 7 strides at the half in the 9f race, he chipped away at the deficit and finished fifth, some three lengths behind Florida Affairs who won the race and outran Slash Dot Murder this time.  Slashing also was outrun by other Derby foes that include Neva Kee (2^nd), Nothing to Justify (3^rd) but beating out Giant Supercell who was 11^th.

Slash Dot Murder showed how dangerous he can be in his last start, the All Saints Derby (Derby lock race) which was on an off track.  Slash lived up to his name this time, slashing a 10 stride disadvantage at the half to hit the wire and lose out in a photo finish by a head and set a career best speed of 104 in the process.

This horse can be a threat to the rest of the field if he can keep himself a bit closer at the half.  While he just missed in his last, he does have two other races where he was 7 or more lengths behind at the half and could not hit a top three position.  If he can keep a bit closer, this race could be his.   

13  FREE MANDATE 16/1  (owned by Cavieres, Club Hipico de Santiago residency) is the son to 8-time winner game-mare Cryfly’s Seattle.  He is the only graded stake winner from this mare but she does have two other kids (out of eight) who have won at the listed stake level.   Golden Horn is the sire that was used in breeding Free Mandate.

Free Mandate has won four of 10 starts and has been in the money a total of 6 times.  He’s on the backside of this field in total earnings with $436,000.    2020 was a troublesome year and primarily due to the racing surface.  He made five straight runs on the turf with a best speed of 74 and without a win while finishing third as his only time on the board.

In October, he was entered into a dirt face for the first time and Free Mandate responded nicely.  His speed increased to 87 and he was finally able to break his maiden.   Improvement continued into his final race of the 2020 season as he took his second win and running away from the field to take it by over three lengths.   While the season started awful, the turnaround came with the change of surfaces and promise.

His three-year-old season kicked off with a 9f allowance outing and Free Mandated popped his first three-digit speed of 101 and after taking a momentary lead in the stretch, was beat by a neck at the wire.  He found himself in the winner’s circle for the third time in his career with a victory in his first listed stake appearance.  The promise he concluded the 2020 season now turned to hope as his next stop was the G1 Whats One More.   In this race he was a comfy fifth at the half and found his stride.  He overtook the lead at the ¾-pole and ran away from the field in the stretch to take the win by three lengths and a 107 career best speed.

Free Mandate has a relaxed racing style.  He doesn’t push to get the lead nor does he stumble his way to the rear of the field, but finds a nice spot and is often about five off the lead at the half.  This is a manageable spot for him as he keeps the leaders within striking range.  His record makes him look like an outsider, mainly due to lifetime earnings and the negative affect the turf races have on the stats.  He is very much an alive contender in this big race.

14  GIANT SUPERCELL 16/1  (owned by Mrxrayz, GR Simsters residency) has surpassed $1 million in career earnings over an eight-pack of races with four victories.  He is a scratchbred colt sired by Midnight Storm and is the only child out of this sire to win a G1 race.   The backend has a strong liking with Giant’s Causeway as the DS and Seeking the Gold taking the DDS seat.

This guy did not look like a “supercell” last year, but more like “superman”.  He enjoys being on the front end and had his first race in June where he went gate-to-wire and breaking his maiden with ease.  He advanced to the allowance group and made it two-in-a-row with another win, this time fighting for the lead early on and was able to take over the lead and won the race by half a length.

Giant Supercell would make it three-in-a-row going again in the allownac, this time with the NWL3 and he was solid, going straight to the front and wiring the field by an easy two lengths.  A perfect four-in-a-row would come in November where he took a step into the listed stake class and again controlled the field all the way, taking this race by 2 ½ lengths.   2020 would conclude with an appearance in his first grade level race, the G1 Movieland Futurity.   This was on a sloppy track and Giant was unable to get to the front, running fourth for a good chunk of the race.  He was able to advance a bit but would end up finishing second, ending his win streak, and this came in the hands (or should I say hoofs?) of Boho The Ox, who is also in this race.

After a two month break, Giant Supercell kicked off his 2021 season in the Vermont is 4 Lovers and he went all out driving straight for the lead and taking a good hold on it….until the stretch when everyone came upon him resulting in an 11^th place finish.  He was beat out by several horses that are entered into the derby, including Florida Affairs (winner), Neva Kee (2^nd), Nothing to Justify (3^rd) and Slash Dot Murder (5^th).

Improvement would be seen in his last race, the Wooden Indian (Derby lock race) where he engaged in an early fight for the lead  and Giant Supercell was able to take a hold of just past the hallway point.  Subtly Stated, a late runner, would catch him and take the win by just shy of a length.  Giant Supercell would finish second but notch his best speed of 103 in the process.

There are a few horses in this race that want the front spot and Giant Supercell is one of them and he’ll have to fight to obtain it.  And if he can get there, he’ll need to keep something in the tank to hold off the patient late runners.  He’s got the ability to do this.

15  MASKED SAINT 6/1 (owned by Massatoga, Universal Racing Club residency) is a scratchbred colt that was sired by Street Sense with Saint Ballado taking up the middle spot as the DS and AP Indy as the DDS.   This colt has been in the money in 8 of his starts and visited the winner’s circle four times.  He has deposited $779,000 in purse money in his bank account.

Looking back at his two-year racing season, it took Masked Saint a while to break his maiden.  In total, he broke it with his fourth start on the track going 8.5 furlongs.  After taking his first win, he ran in a residency listed stakes race where he came late to finish second, missing by a quarter length.  Masked would wrap up the 2020 season with his second win, in an allowance race, which he won by a strong 3 and ¾ lengths.

While Masked Saint does not want the lead early on, he tends to like to be very close to the leader, and mainly is about a length or two behind the leader, often in the second spot.  He did this in his first start of 2021 in a listed stake race and after having a relaxed run for the first half of the 9.5f race, he took off and scorched the field by three and a half lengths and hit his first triple digit speed of 101.

The G2 Fountain of Ute was his next outing and he ran second for a good distance but could not get the top spot, finishing fourth, but ahead of another Derby hopeful Misyoubrotherrick-10^th.  Looking for a pass into the Derby, Masked Saint entered the Florida Derby and had a fine effort.  He was able to take the lead pass the half but was run down by The Free World and finished second, a bit less than 2 strides off the winner.  He did outlast Neva Kee who was third in the race and was ahead of Misyoubrotherrick (11^th).

Masked Saint made one more start in early April in hit G2 Heart Less and this time he came out on top, winning by 1-1/2 strides and hit a speed of 111.   Owner Massatoga offered some insight on the horse “The name was made up because of the Covid-19 pandemic. I am very excited about my chances in the race. It is my first Bluegrass and I really think I have a great chance if Saint is ready. I tried to make it in after finishing 2nd in the Florida Derby but did not have enough points. So I did the unthinkable and ran him back in a Grade II on 15 days rest. It paid off. Ran a nice 111 to win in KY, and more importantly gained enough points to make the field. He came out ready to go and should be sharp by race time.”

Massatoga added “I have to say the only horse I am really worried about is THE FREE WORLD who beat MS in the Florida Derby. Other than that don’t really see any other horses in the race with the speed of MS. But as usual in this game my horse most likely won’t get the respect he deserves. I would really like to bring this one home for my rez URC. I also have a pretty good hopeful in the Oaks – Stormpire. That would make for a great day winning both.  Good luck to all the trainers, can’t wait.”

This horse is a pesky one as he likes to sit an annoying stride or two off the leader and doesn’t give up.  He has the best speed in the field and that came 2 weeks after his previous race.  Hopefully he can recover from these two quick and grueling races and be in top form for this big one!

16  Misyoubrotherrick  25/1  owned by BBT Racing Stables, no residency association) is a scratchbred colt with Curlin heading the bloodline as the sire.  Sitting in the Dam-sire seat is Danzig and taking the rear seat in the Dam-Dam-Sire spot is Seattle Slew.  Misyoubrotherrick has earned $645,000 over his eight career starts and has two wins and has been ITM six times.

Misyoubrotherrick is named in honor of the owners brother.  BBT provided the following commentary on his entrant “Ii bred him a couple of days after my brother suddenly passed away unexpectedly.  He was also a member of Derbyfever, known as Fishstix.   He wasn’t bred for the derby, but he trained well up to the Breeders Bowl and just missed winning, so then gave him a break before shipping to Florida where I was hoping he would get a graded win but no luck, just didn’t seem to fire.  Don’t know if he didn’t like surface or just not good enough. I then decided since he ran so well in Kentucky and if he qualified I would give him a shot at redemption in honer of my brother Rick..   His chances of winning ???

As a two year old, it took Misyoubrotherrick three tries to break his maiden, however, he was on the board each time.   When he broke his maiden, he did so by one and a quarter lengths.   He than ran in a NW2L conditional allowance race where he took his second win this time by half a stride.

Misyoubrotherrick has established his preferred style of racing, which he has done in nearly every start of his career, and that is to take the very last spot in the field (although, on occasion, he may take a spot or two further forward).  After taking his second win, he lunged upward into the G1 End of the Line Futurity.  Here, he had quite the run, trailing by over 11 strides at the 3^rd call of the 8.5f race, quite the distance back as the field went into the stretch.  He came on hard and finished second, 1-1/2 behind winning Settle for Pride, but he did beat out Nothing to Justify, both entered into the Derby.   He wrapped up his two-year campaign with another G1 race in the prestigious Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile.  In this race, several Derby entrants also competed and again was a good distance at the third call, this time 8 back, but he cut that down quickly to finish second by half a stride but he did outlast Commonwealth Ready (3^rd), American Chorus (4^th), Settle for Pride (8^th) and Dark VooDoo (13^th) with a 98 speed, which equaled the same speed figure in the End of the Line Futurity and is his career best. 

Unfortunately, his three year season has not gone well.  He has raced twice this season, appearing first in the G2 Fountain of Ute and his late speed did not show.  He finished 10^th, some 9 strides behind the winner and was never a factor in the race.   His second start was in the Florida Derby looking for the guaranteed Derby Lock and again he failed to fire up, finishing 11^th, a good distance behind other derby entrants with The Free World winning, Masked Saint was second and Neva Kee finished third.

Misyoubrotherrick made secured entry into the Bluegrass Derby based on productivity as a two year old.  Although he has had good efforts in G1 company as a two-year old, he has stalled out as a three year old.  He’ll has to get that fire and desire going again to get the big win here.

17  FLEETWOOD FLATLINE  26/1 (owned by Fleetwood, Northwest Racing Circuit residency) is a scratchbred runner who has earnings just shy of $1.2 million.  He is sired by Flatter with Indian Charlie serving as the DS and Dixieland Band holding the DSS seat.   He has taken four wins in his 9 lifetime starts and is also won a year-end Eclipse award in 2020.

Makes sense to look first at that Eclipse winning season in which Fleetwood broke his maiden his first time out.  He followed that up with a second in a conditional NW2L allowance race.  His third start was a gamble as he entered a listed stake race where Fleetwood would pass the test by going straight out for the lead but would eventually be run down in the stretch, holding on to the second spot.   

Fleetwood Flatline would continue climbing the racing ranks and enter into the G2 High Roller’s Juvenile and this time would take command of the field and win by over a length and beating Commonwealth Ready who battled with Fleetwood for the early lead.    Fleetwood’s record would help him represent his residency in the Equinics-Albert Einstein (G1) and would also be his last race in a sprint.   He went gate-to-wire in this one and finished ahead of Dragon’s Deputy who is also seeking the win in the Bluegrass.  The Sparkling Wine (G1) and going a mile for the first time, was his next challenge and that early speed of his did its thing as he again wired the field by a length and sealed his destiny into the Breeders Bowl Juvenile.  Fleetwood had just completed winning three-in-a-row grade level stake races and sought his fourth in the Breeders Bowl, but it would not come.  He was unable to get to the front and ran 4^th early on and just dipped back from there finishing 11^th.   Other Derby hopefuls finished well ahead of him, including (Misyoubrotherrick-2^nd, Commonwealth Ready-3^rd, American Chorus-4^th, Settle for Pride-8^th, Democratic Process 9^th).

Dusting off that loss, The Legoland (G3) was his destination to start the 2021 season.  He took decent positioning in the second seat early on but didn’t offer much in the later part of the race and finished almost 3 off the winner in the 5^th spot, but scored his lifetime best speed of 100 in the process.   Running in the All Saints Derby, Fleetwood Flatline sought a derby lock win but he could not get that early  pace going.  He latched into the third spot in the early stage, only to fade back and finish around 9 lengths or so behind Spent on Weapons who took the win.   The track was wet, so that may have played into his 8^th place finish but it could also be the longer 9.5 furlongs.

Fleetwood Flatline has been off his game for a while which seems to have kicked in at the Breeders’ Bowl.  This Eclipse winner had one good run at a mile distance but the route races lately have not been playing favorably with him.

18  NOTHING TO JUSTIFY 12/1  (owned by Tenpoint, All-Stars racing residency) is one of three entries in the Derby for Tenpoint.  He’s a scratchbred with “something new” and “something old” bred into him.  The “something new” is the young Justify heading up the breeding line as sire.  The “something old” dates back to the 1970’s when Seattle Slew (DS) and Secretariat (DDS) were born.

Nothing to Justify has bankrolled over $1 million in his 8 lifetime starts that include three wins.  The first came in his maiden debut that he won with ease.  He followed that up with his second win in an allowance race.  He would then move into the stake class which started with the mile distance in the G3 Trixy Delights.   This slow out-of-the-gate runner dropped to the backside of the field, running 11^th in the early going but was able to make a nice run to pick off other horses and concluded the race in second and outran Slash Dot Murder, who was 7^th.   

The G1 End of Line Futurity was Nothing’s next event, but he could not get things moving this time, finishing 6^th, nine off the winning Settle for Pride and also beat out by Misyoubortherrick (2^nd),  who are both in this race.    A much better outcome came in the October running of the Nashuaa Special where Nothing ran 14^th and came home hard to be in a tight 3-horse photo, but got the raw end and was placed third, losing out to Dragon’s Deputy, the declared race winner.    Nothing to Justify would conclude his two-year racing season in a residency listed stake race where he finished second behind American Chorus (also owned by Tenpoint).

Vermont is 4 Lovers, a G1, 9f race resulted in a third place finish for Nothing to Justify who had to eat away at a 10 length deficit at the half to miss by a length and a quarter, finishing behind Florida Affairs (1^st) and Neva Kee (2^nd) but ahead of Slash Dot Murder (5^th).  His last start was in the derby lock prep, Sand Castle Derby and it is here where he looked to be on top of his game.  He found a bit better positioning, running 9^th (normally he’s in one of the last three spots) and he came charging through the stretch to win by over two lengths and a career best speed of 107. 

Nothing to Justify looked terrific in the Sand Castle race and time everything perfectly.  He’s been beaten by other horses in this field, but he can take them down if he can score another race like his last.

19  HOUSE OF ROCK 16/1  (owned by Kingab, Empire State Racing residency) has won six of his eight lifetime starts and amassed over $1 million in the process.  This colt is out of Tears of the Devil, a seven-time career stake winner who has bred four horses.  House of Rock is her only grade winning child but she does have a mare who is a listed stake winner.  Bricks and Mortar is the sire to this colt and is in his second year of breeding and this is his first G1 winning son.

As a two-year old, House of Rock started his career racing on the turf.  He broke his maiden first time out.  But running in a pair of allowance races after that, things just did not pan out well as was evidenced by finishing last in the first race and seventh out of ten in his next try.

Those failed attempts let to a switch of surfaces and House of Rock was brought to an allowance race, NW2L to give the dirt a tryout.  The tryout was successful as the horse rallied from the rear seat in the field to win a photo for the win spot.  He was destined to climb the allowance ranks with a NW3L condition next on his list and this time he went for the lead out of the gate and wired the four horse field by just under two strides which concluded his 2020 season.

The winning on the dirt did not stop as going 9f in the NW4L where he left the gate in second and topped the small field of four by 2 and a half lengths.  His last two races were small fields but his next start, a listed stake, would be with 8 horses and he showed that he was for real as he wired the field by 2 and a half lengths once again and popped a 104 speed in the process.  His last start was in the Corkscrew Stakes (G1) in pursuit of a derby lock spot.  A change of styles prevailed as he broke slowly, running 10^th in the field through the first quarter.  By the half way point of the 9f race, he was in 9^th and seven off the leader.  House of Rock fired things up and bullied his way to the top spot and one by nearly two lengths and a bump in speed to 106. 

House of Rock has been perfect on the dirt winning all five of his starts.  He is versatile in race style and seems to adapt quickly to his conditions.  He is successful going to the front early or settling back a bit and running late.  Looks like a contender!

Owner Kingab offered these comments on House of Rock  “When I bred this horse I was hoping for a long distance turf horse, but other than breaking his maiden in his first start his subsequent turf starts were disappointing. I then put him on the dirt for a race and he simply loved it. He is undefeated on dirt and has improved his numbers every time and seems to get better the farther he runs. As for his name well if you build a home using bricks and mortar you get a House of Rock!”

20  NEVA KEE 15/1 (owned by Lenny271, GR Simsters residency) is sired by Royal Mo and is the only child he has fathered that has won a stakes race.  Mother Bechemel earned over half a million bucks in her career and is a G2 winner.  She has ten children with three winning stake races including one that snagged a grade level win.  Bechemel has hit the board in all eight of his starts which includes four victories and filled the bank account with over $450,000.

As a two year old, he raced six times and Neva Kee only need the first two to break his maiden which came at 6.5f with a 73 speed.  He galloped up to a mile conditional NW2L race next and the speed number soared to 90 with a strong two length win.  With a pair of wins behind him and a promising speed number, he galloped upward again, this time in class to the G3 Charcoal Breeder’s Cup.   Neva Kee likes to sit in the middle of the field and in his first stake race, it worked well as he closed to finish third, a bit more than 2 behind winning Dark Voodoo, who is scheduled to race in the Derby.

Neva Kee would drop back a bit in class to the listed stake level where he would race twice before 2020 ended.  The first time out, he surpassed the 100 speed level for the first time, recording a 101 and taking the win by more than a length.  He would repeat this outcome in his next listed stake, winning by a bit more (1 ¾ lengths).

The three-year old racing would start as 2020 flipped to 2021 and Neva Kee would gallop upward again..right into the G1 Vermont is 4 Lovers.  He would put in another fine effort, this time finishing second behind Florida Affairs with a career best speed of 103.  He finished one spot ahead of Nothing to Justify and three spots in front of Slash Dot Murder and much further ahead of Giant Supercell who will be foes in the Derby.   His last race was the Florida Derby and he finished third, but lost ground in the stretch.  Winning this race was The Free World and Neva was seven lengths behind the winner with Masked Saint sandwiched between him and the winner (and nearly 6 behind Masked Saint.)

Neva Kee has had a knack of hitting the board with reliability but the distance gap in his last start concerns me with being 7 strides behind the winner and this race goes 10 furlongs, a distance he has not yet tried.  He’s winless in graded competition and this would be a great spot to end that drought.

MY BETS:

I’m using a fictious bank roll of $300 just for the fun of it.  Here are my bets:

$10 win bets on:

1 Dawngoesdowntoday

3 American Chorus

8 The Free World

9 Dragon’s Deputy

12 Slash Dot Murder

15 Masked Saint

19 House of Rock

Total bets  $70.

$5 exacta box:

Boxing all 7 horses above for a combine 42 bets (7×6)

Total bets $210.

Got $20 left so I’m putting it on #16 Misyourbrotherrick to show, going with the nice storyline memory and hoping for a sweet ending!

Best of luck to all our runners in this big race!