Corkscrew Lock-Prep Brings Many Questions to the Bluegrass Derby Picture

With three Bluegrass Derby Lock Preps on the card for this Saturday it might be easy to say that the Corkscrew in Kentucky looks like the lightest. There are only three prior graded winners in the field and none have won at the grade one level yet. Even so the number of strong up and coming three year olds makes this a very interesting race and it is easily possible that the Bluegrass Derby winner could come from among this group. Let’s take a look at the field.

#1 Techno Horror 13/1

A scratchbred son of Shanghai Bobby x Storm Bird x Miswaki, Techno Horror has won four of his eight starts but importantly he is two for two in routes. Those two races were his only starts of the year. He got about two months off over the winter before running in a one mile allowance race. It was a short field – only five runners – but he made short work of his competition, closing from about ten lengths back at the midpoint and blowing by the front runners to win by almost three lengths. He ‘only’ ran a 90 speed that day but the ease of his win suggested that he had a lot more in the tank. He returned about six weeks later to run in a listed going a mile and a sixteenth and again he was around ten lengths back at the midpoint and again he closed strongly to win by open lengths. This time he ran a very strong 101 speed and again, considering the ease of his victory it suggests there may be more in the tank. The one thing I question is how far his pedigree will take him. Shanghai Bobby did win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but never won at a longer distance. Storm Bird did win the Preakness but Miswaki’s biggest win came at seven furlongs.

#2 Democratic Process 9/1

One of the three graded stakes winners in the field is Democratic Process. He’s won four of seven starts including two of four routing. He took a one mile grade three last August, enough to propel him into the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile but he didn’t fire in that race finishing ninth. It’s possible that a two month layoff was a bit too long for the colt because after just a month off he took another grade three, this time going a mile and a sixteenth and running a very fast 103 speed in December Again he got two months off between starts, this time coming back in February of this year to run a dull fifth in the Grade Three Risen Star Stakes although he did hit the triple digit speed mark with a 101 there. So now he’s had another two month break. Will that hurt his chances here? Hard to tell. He’s a son of Constitution out of a More Than Ready x Encosta de Lago mare. She herself never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth and he is her first foal. Democratic Process does have tactical speed which is always a bonus in a race like this.

#3 House of Rock 10/1

Interestingly House of Rock is a son of the turf horse Bricks and Mortar who of course was named Horse of the Year in 2019. Bricks and Mortar famously won the Breeders’ Cup Turf at a mile and a half but he was likely best at a mile and a quarter. As a son of Giant’s Causeway who excelled on the turf there was little interest in standing Bricks and Mortar in the United States and he was purchased by Japanese interests. House of Rock started his career on the lawn but after switching to the dirt he’s gone four for four including two wins from two starts this year, both at a mile and an eighth. He has a lot of speed, wanting to be on or near the lear early on. His last start came in his stakes debut and he lead the field on a merry chase, winning by a comfortable two and a half lengths with a 104 speed. House of Rock is out of a stakes winning Street Cry x A.P. Indy mare. She scored all of her wins on the grass but she never won beyond a mile. He’s her third foal and second stakes winner.

#4 No Keg Untapped 12/1

The second grade three winner in the field is the gelding No Keg Untapped. He’s a son of the turf monster No Nay Never based on a Tapit x Dark Angel hemare. No Keg Untapped won his debut last February with a strong 78 speed and oddly was immediately gelded. He was graded placed as a two year old, once at seven furlongs and again at a mile. He enters this race off a two month layoff after winning the Grade Three Good Cow Stakes at a mile back in January. In that start he came from tenth early on to win by a length and a half. He really motored down the stretch as he was in seventh, five lengths away from the leaders coming off the far turn. He ran a 101 speed which fits nicely with this field. In his only turf start he finished unplaced in a graded sprint race. The one question about this colt is if he wants to go the distance of both this race and, if he were to win, the Bluegrass Derby. No Nay Never was a sprinter, as was Dark Angel. The hemare he was produced by never won at a route. Certainly No Keg Untapped’s running style can be helpful in getting longer distances but the pedigree is a big question mark.

#5 Cat and Zap 9/1

Cat and Zap has experience at this distance and at a mile and three sixteenths, which could benefit him here. In his two starts this year he was fourth in a listed going that longer distance before returning to win a listed at a mile and an eighth. He’s a confirmed front runner which can be a detriment but his last start was in an eleven horse field and he had speed to burn, leading by over five lengths at one point before holding off the closers to win by a comfortable two and a quarter lengths. He ran a 102 speed in that race which came just about a month ago. In that aspect he reminds me very much of his sire Ghostzapper who could run his opponents off their feet and had speed to burn, although Ghostzapper was also rateable. Cat and Zap is a scratchbred with a Storm Cat x Rubiano backend.

#6 Paynty Raid 14/1

At 14/1 you might be lulled into thinking Paynty Raid is not a quality horse. Nothing could be further from the truth. He’s got one of the best records in the field with five wins and two seconds from seven starts including four wins from five route races. So why is he at such long odds? It’s because he’s making his dirt debut. All of his other races have come over a synthetic surface. The son of Paynter is out of a Carpe Diem x War Chant mare who won fourteen starts over the synthetics. He’s her first foal but her two year old by Maximum Security is already stakes placed although he did it on the dirt. In his most recent start he won a listed stakes at a mile and an eighth with a 97 speed. His style is to press the early leaders before taking over around the turn but making the surface switch can easily cause horses to change their running style for better or worse.

#9 Jabuk Thaja 9/1

Jabuk Thaja won his stakes debut in a listed at one mile back in October. This season he has only made two starts but both came in graded races. He was third in the one mile Grade Three Good Cow Stakes after a contentious battle for the early lead before tiring to finish third. He was in front through the turn but the horse who pressed him that day was able to inch forward and take the lead down the stretch before being run down by late runner No Keg Untapped. Jabuk Thaja’s next start came in the mile and a sixteenth Felipe Alou Stakes and again he won a battle for the early lead before tiring late, this time finishing second and again the horse who pressed him early was able to outlast him at the end. He did run a 104 speed in that race which came on March 7^th. The son of Bernardini is out of a stakes winning Awesome Again x City Zip mare. He’s her first foal. She scored her big win going a mile and three sixteenths but the second dam was a grade three winner at a mile and three sixteenths (go figure for a City Zip mare!).

#8 Senator To Be 7/1

Senator To Be is owned and trained by sjmeola and if you hang around the chatroom at all you’ll know he is a big proponent of gelding his horses right from the start. The scratchbred son of Gun Runner x Unbridled’s Song x Danzig started his career as a gelding and did well sprinting but really blossomed going routes. His last three starts have come at a mile or more. Last November he won an allowance at a mile with a 97 speed. He improved to run a 102 speed in his stakes debut in January and most recently won a listed with a 104 speed going a mile and a sixteenth. He really likes to be on the lead which is going to be a contentious place to be in this field. His listed win came in just a seven horse field so he got a fairly easy lead and won by three and a half lengths. Obviously trying a fourteen horse field with a lot of speed is a big ask but this colt has shown he has quality.

#9 Thinkalittleless 13/1

Sire Ghostzapper is well represented in this field with both Thinkalittleless and Cat and Zap. Thinkalittleless is out of a Graydar x Distorted Humor mare and his her first foal. She never won at a route and is a half sister to a grade three winning sprinter. That does not bode well for Thinkalittleless’ chances of going too far but so far he’s outrun that pedigree with two wins and a second in three route starts. Thinkalittleless is one of two horses in the field with only four starts under his belt. He won his first three races by running wire to wire. His only loss came in his most recent start but it was one of those races where a horse shows you more in losing than they do in winning. That race was the mile and a sixteenth Grade Two Moises Alou Cap. He didn’t even get close to the early lead, running in sixth early on before rallying to finish second by only a length. He ran a very good 102 speed in that start. Aside from showing a different dimension in style, Thinkalittleless had to close against a horse who got loose on the lead and just held on, the style that this colt had applied in his previous runs. But showing that tractability and running a quick speed bodes very well for this colt’s future.

#10 Legacy Weapon 7/1

The other colt with only four starts to his name is Legacy Weapon. All of his starts have come at a mile or more and he’s won three with one second. The scratchbred son of Arrogate x Storm Cat x Blushing Groom has plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree and his last two starts have come at today’s distance. The second choice in the field also has the second fastest last out speed of a 105. He ran that number in his stakes debut where he closed from eleventh to win going away. He showed a lot of courage coming from eighth at the stretch call to get that win. He was much further back in that race than he had been in any of his previous races although it was his first time facing a full field. Prior to that the most opponents he ran against was seven. Given the amount of speed in this race this colt will have plenty of pace to run at and his experience with the distance gives him another edge.

#11 Amazing Aura 16/1

The longest shot in the field, Amazing Aura comes off two mile and an eighth races in his only two runs this year. The first was an easy win in a five horse field in a non-winners of two lifetime allowance. In that race he allowed an early pace setter to take a commanding lead before making a bold move down the backstretch and sprinting home to win by three lengths. That was good enough for his connections to try a listed in his next start. He fell further behind early on both in terms of distance behind the early leader and in position but he made a steady move, putting himself five lengths behind the front end at the stretch call before motoring home to lose by just half a length with a 98 speed. He’ll have to improve off that run here but that powerful late close is certainly as asset. He’s a son of Oxbow out of a Sky Mesa x Mr. Greeley mare and is her first foal.

#12 King Tutzig 11/1

King Tuztig has the most starts of any horse in this field with ten but has only one win to his name. He’s a scratchbred son of American Pharoah x Danzig x Awesome Again so one hopes he would get better with age and distance, even though his connections have not had the patience to give him that time. After running third in his debut last March he jumped straight to listed company and finished second by a half length in the race. He stayed in stakes or graded competition for six more starts before dropping back to a maiden in December. He did win that race easily but went straight back to graded company finishing eighth in the Grade One Vermont is 4 Lovers Stakes in February. Overall he’s finished in the money in four stakes or graded races but the thought here is that this horse needs a rest and a chance to run through his conditions before trying stakes races again.

#13 Blast Fuel 6/1

Our favorite is Blast Fuel who owns the highest last out speed in the race and is the only grade two winner in the field. He did both of those in the mile and a sixteenth Sleepy Fan Stakes, running fifth early on before taking the lead down the stretch and winning by a length with a 109 speed. Prior to that he ran a 104 speed when winning a one mile listed stakes where he was ninth of thirteen early on before pouring it on down the stretch. Those are his only two starts this year. Overall he’s got a 6-4-1-0 record, all in dirt routes and is easily the horse to beat in this race. He’s a son of Accelerate out of a stakes winning Tiznow x A.P. Indy mare. He’s her second foal and first stakes winner.

#14 Eye In The Storm 14/1

Eye In The Storm has won three of his six starts with three third place finishes. He’s a son of Midnight Storm out of a graded placed / stakes winning Giant’s Causeway x Seeking the Gold mare. He’s actually her first foal but he has a full brother who is already a stakes winner this year at two years old. Their dam won two starts at a mile and three sixteenths and was third in her only try going further at a mile and a quarter. She was grade one placed going a mile and an eighth so she should impart plenty of stamina. Eye In The Storm won his first three starts before jumping up to stakes races where he’s got his three third place finishes. His closest loss came back in January when he lost by just three quarters of a length when going a mile and three sixteenths with a 93 speed. More recently he ran in a mile and an eighth race where he earned a 96 speed. He tends to sit just off the pace before making his move. He’ll have to improve today but there’s no doubt that if he wins here he’s got the stamina to do well in the Bluegrass Derby.

Good luck to all!