Blazing speeds look to be the order of the day in Six Up Monster Special

Some of the world’s top turf milers, as well as some of the best young up and comers visit Virginia this week for the third annual running of the Six Up Monster Special. The race is for all horses, four years and older, runs over eight and a half furlongs of firm turf, and carries a $50000 purse. This race has historcally drawn some high profile horses, with twelve of the twenty three entries from the past two years having at least earned points at graded levels of competition. This year’s field will be no exception, with three of the top fifty divisionally ranked horses, and some that are headed that way, battling it out in what looks to be an exciting race. Last year’s winner was Theatrical Affair(IRE), who came from midpack to stymie a wire to wire bid by longshot Chart Master, nipping him by three quarters at the wire. This year brings us a field of eleven horses, four to six years in age. Oddsmakers are fairly confident on their top picks, going off at 3/1 and 4/1, but the entire field weighs in at under 15/1 odds in this one, with a pair of 14/1 shots claiming the long money in this one. The midrange odds here could mean some decent payouts at the window this week, especially on the exotics front.

PP 1) Hoegaarden(KY) Sired by Gone West, Trained by simsters6. Hoegaarden(KY) is a four year old colt, making his fourteenth career appearance here. His first thirteen starts have already been enough to earn him a divisional ranking of 28, behind two prior stakes wins, both at graded level. He has earned a 5-2-2-1-0 record in his first thirteen, with six 100+ speeds, capped by a blazing 114.2 earned in his last start. That race was the DCPD Penn Mile, where he bested the two race favorites here, as well as eleven others to capture a thriller at the wire by a nose. After a passable career start on dirt, he switched to turf in his fourth start, and has never looked back, quickly climbing the divisional rankings. The mile has been his race of choice, and he has six top three finishes in nine turf starts in this distance range. He is a deep closer and his close has been up and down over his last few starts ranging from brilliant one time to lackadaisical the next. His prime striking distance seems to be about six lengths at the half post. The drop in class benefits him here, and the rabbits are not the overall fastest horses in this field. He should be in decent range at the half, but he has a field of closers around him looking at the same thing. If his recent pattern holds, he’s due for a small bounce here, so I can’t recommend him for the win, but even that should still be good enough to best several here.

PP 2) Shakespeared Sired by Macho Uno, Trained by glendowr. Shakespeared is a five year old horse, facing career start thirty three in this race. Though running well at high levels of competition, he is still seeking that elusive first stakes win. Over the course of his last ten starts, he has posted a record of 2-3-0-1-2, with seven 100+ speeds, topping out at 110.4 in an allowance race right here in Virginia last August. His last race was the Grade 3 Strange Brew Turf Handicap, where he finished a fading sixth in a field of fourteen. He was primarily a dirt runner up until the middle of last year, but a switch to turf proved profitable for him, allowing him to surpass his earnings in nineteen dirt starts in seven starts on turf since that point. He hasn’t failed to break the 100 speed mark in any of the turf starts since that point. The turf mile has been his money race, and he has five top two finishes in six starts in this distance range on turf. His close has been quite reliable over his last several starts, but he has shown a tendency to break a bit too early at the half, with not enough left in the stretch to bring it home. Look for him to be right in the mix as they hit third call, but losing ground as they push down the stretch.

PP 3) Kondor(KY) Sired by Hennessey, Trained by cnl. Kondor(KY) is a four year old colt, taking the gate for his twenty third career start here. He has two stakes victories to his credit, his most recent coming in his last start. His last ten runs have seen him go 5-2-1-1-0 in a combination of allowance and stakes races, breaking the 100 mark six times, capped by a 104.9 in a stakes race right here in Virginia late last September. His last run was a nine and a half furlong stakes in North Florida, where he took a field of six gate to wire, holding on to win a thriller by a quarter length. After starting his career on dirt, a switch to turf proved to be just what he needed, resulting in seven wins and steadily increasing speeds as he matured through last season. His speeds are slightly better with another furlong or two of distance, but in this range on turf, he has two wins and a place in three tries. All have been allowance level starts, though, and he has never tried this short in stakes competition. He’s a fast starter, and he loves to build up a big early cushion, which he has had decent success holding on to in recent starts. He has proven he also knows how to handle himself in a speed duel early, though not with as much success. He will face that duel early here, and most likely will find himself expending a lot of energy early with a field of hungry closers nipping at his heels in the second half. The real speed here comes from midpack, and he most likely won’t have the cushion to hold them off in this shorter race after the early duel.

PP 4) Very Silver Sired by Silver Ghost, Trained by acote. Very Silver is a five year old horse, who will make his thirtieth career start in this race. He has five previous stakes victories, three of them graded, and looks to improve upon his number 47 divisional ranking here. His last ten starts have watched him go 2-1-2-0-2, smashing the 100+ barrier nine times, maxing out at 114.8 in a Maryland stakes victory three starts back. His last run was the Grade 3 Rambling Stakes in Kentucky, where he finished a relatively close in sixth in a tough field. After suffering a slight injury in his 2 year old debut on dirt, he came roaring back as a turf racer, earning well over a half million dollars in his next five starts. That was enough to keep him on turf for the duration, and it has paid off well for him. This is his money race, with twenty three of his career starts coming in this distance range, and resulting in seven wins and fifteen top three finishes. He generally runs as a midpack closer, and outside of a mid season stumble last year, his close has ben reasonably consistent. His last four starts have all been flirting around that 110 speed barrier which makes him a threat here. The question I see here is his response to the six place finishes in his last. In the past it has taken him a couple of starts to respond after a lower finish, and without his best effort here, he won’t bring this one home.

PP 5) Sip Of Saki Sired by Sakhee, Trained by bjbandit2. Sip Of Saki is a six year old horse, gracing the track for his thiry fifth career start. He wears a target in this race, for several compelling reasons. Could be he is favored here, could be the twelve career stakes victories, nine of them graded, could be the number 2 divisional ranking, or could even be the Eclipse nomination last year. Over the course of his last ten starts, all Grade I or Grade 2, he has posted a mark of 5-1-0-1-1, cracking 100 in all ten starts, and breaking the 110 mark seven times. He last raced in the DCPD Penn Mile, where he finished a hard closing fourth in a tight field. He is truly versatile, with graded wins and 110+ speeds on both surfaces, but turf has been his claim to fame, with a 33% winning percentage and over three million in earnings. He has been good at anywhere from eight to ten furlongs, but this has been his distance of choice. In thirteen career tries in this distance range on turf, he has ten top two finishes. He is a midpack to deep closer, and outside of a stumble in last year’s World Cup race, his close has been very consistent. The speed he has been showing, combined with the drop in class here definitely makes him the one to beat, and if he runs like he has been, he’s going to make that a tough feat to accomplish.

PP 6) Dumber Then A Rock(IRE) Sired by Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE), Trained by gum. Dumber Then a Rock(IRE) is a four year old colt, seeing action for the nineteenth time in his career here. After being picked up by his new trainer in a 13.5K maiden claimer last June, he as rewarded his new trainer with five wins in seven starts, including two stakes wins. Overall for his last ten, he has a mark of 6-2-0-0-1, with three 100+ speeds, capped by a 113.8 in a stakes win three starts back. His last race was a stakes at this distance in Pensylvania, where he bested a field of eight by two and three quarters, taking them wire to wire. He tried dirt once, trying to beat a maiden jinx, but it only went to prove that he was much more comfortable on grass. Thirteen of his career starts have been in the eight to nine furlong range, and in seven starts in this distance range, he has four wins and six top three finishes. He is a firm believer in early fireworks, loving to be out front where he can control the pace early. He likes it on his own up there, but he can also handle himself with competition up front early. Though his one try at graded level was a bitter disappointment, he has been showing some graded quality speed. If you are looking to make a longshot bet here, you could do much worse than to place some money on this colt.

PP 7) Forever Quest(KY) Sired by Johannesburg, Trained by kino. Forever Quest(KY) is a four year old colt, seeing action for his twenty first career time in this race. He has one previous stakes victory, coming last June. He’s posted a record of 3-4-2-0-0 in his last ten runs, topping the 100+ mark six times, with a best speed of 109.5 earned in an allowance race three starts back. His last run was an eight furlong turf stakes in Mississippi, where he closed hard late to capture third place honors in a field of fourteen. He has been running turf since his second career start, and after reeling off wins in four of his next five, he’s never moved back off the grass. This is his preferred distance range, and he boast eleven top three finishes in fourteen tries in this distance range. He is a deep closer, and his close has been very consistent, but it has seen him fall just short more often than not in his last several starts. He could most likely find himself in a deep hole at the half, with some fast speed out in front of him in the second half. Look for a good effort in the second half, but it won’t likely be enough to get him there in this high calibre field.

PP 8) Leo’s Jewel(IRE) Sired by Galileo, Trained by bicuspid. Leo’s Jewel is a four year old colt, racing in his nineteenth career start here. He has two previous stakes wins, one of them a graded victory back in his two year old season. He has produced a 5-2-0-1-1 record, with six 100+ speeds, capped by a 109.7 in a takes victory two starts back. His last run was a seven and a half furlong stakes in Massachusetts, where he finished third in a field of twelve, unable to dig himself out of a first half hole. Like many, he has a dirt start just to say he’s been there, but turf has been his surface of choice. The bulk of his races have been sprints, with his best success coming in the seven to seven and a half range, but in six starts in this distance range, he has posted his two career best speeds, and four top two finishes. He is a midpack closer, and with a couple of exceptions, his close has been great over his last several starts. Unfortunately, those aforementioned exceptions have both occurred when he finds himself out deeper than eight lengths a the half, a situation he could likely find himself in with the speed around him here. If he can hold the early pace, he could collect a check here. His position at the half will tell the story for him in this race.

PP 9) Mambo Dexter(DEN) Sired by Dexterity, Trained by bad. Mambo Dexter(DEN) is a four year old colt, set to make his eighteenth career start here. He has one career stakes win near the end of his two year old season. His last ten starts have watched him run to a 2-1-3-0-1 record, with three 100+ speed, topped off by a 109.0 in a stakes race late last year. His last start was in the Grade 3 Strange Brew Turf Handicap, where he finished a fading twelfth in a field of fourteen. He has one dirt start for his career, by far his worst outing, and he has wisely stayed on turf since that point. Eight to nine furlongs is his preferred race, and in this distance range, he has five top three finishes in seven tries. He’s a deep closer, but his close has been rather a mixed bag, either quite good or quite bad, with very little gray area in between. He has not fared well facing fields of this calibre, and this race doesn’t look to be much of an exception. He’s going to need his career best, and some luck besides to be any real kind of factor in this race.

PP 10) Toss Power Trap Sired by Vindication, Trained by boomerslew. Toss Power Trap is a relatively lightly raced five year old horse, making only his nineteenth career start here. He is still seeking his first stakes victory as he gallops into this start. His last ten starts have left him with a record of 3-2-1-0-0, with six 100+ speeds. His best speed was 107.3 posted in a stakes at this distance three starts back. His last outing was a seven furlong dirt allowance on a tough Delaware track, where a sterling stretch run earned him a quarter length victory in a short field of five. His career has been an even split between dirt and turf, and he boasts victories and 100+ speeds on both surfaces. His average speeds and his race earnings both favor turf, however. He is primarily a sprinter, with his best turf success coming in the seven to seven and a half furlong range. He has three turf starts in this distance range, resulting in a pair of second place finishes, though his career best speed by a fair margin came right at the distance he faces here. He is a deep closer, and while he usually manages to pick up at least a little ground, outside a couple of stellar runs, all at slightly shorter distances, it hasn’t been enough let him bring it all the way home. With the speed he faces here, he is going to be hard pressed to make up any real ground in the second half, and the slightly longer race seems to be a downside rather than up. I don’t expect he will be threatening down the stretch in this one.

PP 11) Maverick Sired by Gone West, Trained by desperado2. Maverick is a five year old horse, who will make his twenty ninth career appearance in this race. He has one career stakes victory coming into this race. Overall in his last ten, he has run to a record of 4-2-0-1-1, cracking the 100+ mark seven times, with a best of 111.8 coming three starts back. His last run was an eight furlong A3s on dirt in Rhode Island, where he finished eight in a field of eleven. He has three career dirt starts, none particularly impressive, and his payday has been classic distance turf races. He’s done well anywhere from eight to nine furlongs, and in fourteen career runs in this distance range, he boasts six wins and eleven top three finishes. He is a midpack closer, and on turf his close has been relatively consistent. The dirt start in his last seemed to be an attempt by his trainer to shake him up a bit after failing to collect a check in a tough field at the Minnesota Festival Days. He has been posting some very good turf speeds, but they have been up and down a bit over his last eight. If he brings his A game, he can be competitive here, but he faces another very tough field. His last race was a controlled bounce, and he usually comes back quite well after an outing like that. He’s a possible trifecta shot with his best, but I don’t see him pulling off the win here.