9 Up for Paunchi’s War Challenge
This is the third running of The PAUNCHI’S WAR Challenge. Retired 4 years ago, PAUNCHI’S WAR (STALWART X MR. PROSPECTOR X HIS MAJESTY) earned over a half a million dollars during his career, getting all his wins on dirt routes. Although Trainer Madjag never got a win with Puanchi’s War in an elusive graded stakes, he does have 7 stakes wins to his name and posted a career high 109 twice, (Lake Como stakes and Caribe stakes). Before we take a look forward to Saturday’s race, let’s take minute to remember what happened in the previous two runs.
There are some striking similarities and some obvious differences in the first two runnings of the PAUNCHI’S WAR Challenge. Both WATERGATE SCANDAL and BOB’S ORCHESTRA posted a speed figure of 97 in their win as they raced the mile and one sixteenth in 1:43 and 1:43.2 respectively. That is where the similarities end. Watergate Scandal went wire to wire last year on a fast track, coming out of the gate with an early lead which he maintained through a strong finish, 3 lengths ahead of STORM HERD for his 5th win. In 2005 Bob’s Orchestra stayed back until the last turn of the race where he made his move to finish just ahead of GLENELG BEACH to claim his second stakes victory on the wet, slow track.
If we trust the weatherman we should have a fast track on Saturday, but will the 2008 Paunchi’s War Challenge be like 2007 with a wire to wire, decisive win or like 2005 with someone making a late move for a close finish? Will we see the 97 speed figure topped this Saturday? Will one of these three year olds finish the race quicker than 1:43? Let’s have a look at who will be vying for the win and to take home the $55,000 purse.
PP 1 BREAKING WINDOWS (KY) (ROCK HARD TEN x CATEGORY 5 x BLUSHING GROOM) bred by willyam40 and trained by Ziploc (Sunshine Stables, 11%) Odds: 12-1
Breaking Windows will be making his stakes debut here in the third race of his career. In his previous two races he posted speed factors of 84 and 94 and finished in first place both times. Although he is the only horse in the field that hasn’t raced in stakes race he only knows what it is like to come out on top, will he take home his third win here?
PP 2 MAJOR A.P. (KY) (MILITARY x SEEKING THE GOLD x A.P. INDY) ) bred and trained by mmstable5 (Millerfarm Stables, 9%) Odds: 9-2
This scratchbred has not placed worse than second in his 5 starts with a win percentage of 60% and an ITM percentage of 100%! He likes to start fast and run at the front of the pack, only racing less than third once in at all points of call in his career. Major A.P. has responded well each time trainer mmstable5 has increased his distance, posting increasingly higher speeds. Look for him to start strong and finish strong here this weekend.
PP 3 BACK TAX (MD) (FANTASTICAT x IN REALITY x CARO (IRE)) bred and trained by bigzac (Lsumark Stables, 14%) Odds: 10-1
Back Tax returns to Maryland where he was foaled and in his 9th start he will try for his 4th win. He experienced quite a speed jump when his trainer moved him from sprints to routes. If he can post a similar speed figure he should be right in the midst of the competition here. He has been in the money in every race has started except stakes races. He usually starts strong, so the question is will he be able to stay strong the whole race and take his first stakes win, justifying his place in this class?
PP 4 JESUS WALKS(KY) (CAME HOME x PULPIT x MEADOWLAKE) bred by queer and trained by milesuis (CVBear Racing Empire, 8%) Odds: 5-2
Wow – this is an impressive horse! Coming off a graded win at the G1-eruption handicap, Jesus Walks has put up an impressive 4 wins, earning over $437,000 in his 6 starts. The only time Jesus Walks did not finish in the money was in his graded debut at the G-3 Cryogenics Juvenile where he place 4th, just one length out of 3rd place. This is his first start at a distance longer than a mile. Posting the highest speed figure in the field, and the only to hit triple digit mark, I expect Jesus Walks to post a high speed here, most likely above the 97 which is the previous high in this race.
PP 5 SNARKY REMARK (IRE) (INVINCIBLE SPIRIT (IRE) x DIESIS (GB) x LYPHARD) bred by sunshine87 and trained by loonylopo (Sunshine Stables, 11%) Odd 10-1
Sunshine Stables’ second horse in the field is Snarky Remark who is starting his third race on dirt. Putting up an impressive 2 wins and 2 places in 5 starts on turf, trainer loonylopo decided to see what he could do on dirt. He delivered a win and show on his first two tries on dirt, putting up his highest speed figure of 98 when he brought home the win at the SEEKING SLEW Handicap in his last race. With an 87% ITM percentage, I think we might see Snarky continue his success here.
PP 6 SHOOT FOR THE GOLD (ENG) (CACIQUE (IRS) x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred and trained by super5 (More Evil Than The Evil Empire!, 16%) Odds: 7-1
Shoot for the Gold’s last race was a second place finish at the Horn Knee Sal Handicap where he put up an impressive 97 speed figure. Super is hoping for an improvement over that here in Maryland for his first stakes win and not a repeat of Shoot for the Gold’s showing at the DelPenn Breeders Cup Juvenile RESTRICTED where he placed 15th. Both of his wins were in sprints, but he has also placed 2nd in his second route. His will be ridden by W. Smith who has won 25% of his races this year. Maybe In his third try at a route Shoot for the Gold will find his third win.
PP 7 KIRBY’S WARRIOR (KY) (A.P. WARRIOR x MINESHAFT x ALYDAR) bred and trained by kirby55 (OJAI Valley Stables, 15%) Odds: 5-1
He is only one of two horses who have raced two turns twice and he comes into Saturday’s race with 4 wins in his last 5 races, posting increasing speed figures with each race. This 34th ranked horse has already won $146.231 in his 9 starts, finishing in the money in all but his very first stakes race where he placed fourth. G. Parker (7.8%), who is looking for his first win this year, will ride Kirby’s Warrior in his 6th start in a stakes race (the most experienced horse in stakes races in the field).
PP 8 SMART START TED (KY) (SMARTY JONES x JUMP START x MISWAKI) bred and trained by youngnhung (Tsyndicate Stables, 8%) Odds 18-1
Smart Start Ted is indeed off to a smart start in his two career starts, although he is the least experience in the field (along with Breaking Windows). He won his first race and took 4th with an impressive speed figure of 90 in his second race, in The PHAT SEATTLE Memorial (his first stakes race). This will be his first time running a route.
PP 9 FOXY MESA (KY) (SKY MESA x FORTY NINER x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by docpmg (Dentition *No Do Claima’s* Stables, 19%) Odds: 4-1
With a 60% win percentage and a 80% ITM percentage, Foxy Mesa is one of only two colts here to have a graded race on his resume (Jesus Walks is the other to have raced in graded stakes). Foxy Mesa will likely make his presence known early. In his maiden race he posted a speed of 85 and for the most part it has just been increasing since then. This will be his first time running a route, but he has proven that he can handle himself in this class and has the speed figures to win.
In summary, we have an impressive field of colts this year that will battle it out to win Paunchi’s War Challenge. I expect Major A.P., Back Tax and Kirby’s Warrior to be fighting for the early lead, but they will need to watch for Jesus Walks, Shoot for the Gold, and Foxy Mesa to come from behind and fight for the win. I expect Jesus Walks to walk away the victor here with Foxy Mesa and Kirby’s Warrior close behind.
Kloie J