Open betting in the The MURF CLOSET Memorial Stakes
Longchamp experiences a sense of Deja Vu as this weeks stake race has identical conditions to last week – 11 furlongs on turf for mares and fillies 4yo+. Thankfully the course is still riding firm so no problems are envisaged with the ground. Seven runners have turned up this week for a much more open betting race where the 4yo’s may just have the adavantage over the odler mares. The betting is:
2/1 Alpine Wings(IRE)
5/2 Botjeu Tete(IRE)
9/2 Humor Kirby(KY)
5/1 Bunny Ranch Crypt(KY)
5/1 Kid Thunder
6/1 Tiz Fresh(KY)
16/1 Loud Gator
Analysis
2/1 Alpine Wings(IRE) – #2
Trainer: foxon4
(Azamour(IRE) x In The Wings(GB) x Rhythm)
A 4yo filly from Foxon Stables which was bred by paschal as a 3yo. She has scored 8 wins from her 16 runs including 1 stakes win and, although she only finished 4th last time out in her first race as a 4yo, she managed to put ip a great sp# over 10 furlongs. Despite only managing a 3rd place in her only previous Lonchamp start she’s proved herself over this distance as a 3yo and looks to be a good choice for favourite backers. A front runner who will be hard to catch.
5/2 Botjeu Tete(IRE) – #3
Trainer: sabbath5
(Montjeu (IRE) x Kingmambo x Irish River(FR))
A 5yo mare from one of the sims most experienced stables, and Ireland resident, Sabbath Stables. Another 3yo breeding she has been fairly lightly raced and won 6 of her 18 starts but despite a 4th spot in the G1 World Cup Ladies Turf Classic has yet to find her first stakes victory. Quite often likes to make the early running so will have a real battle with the favourite right from the start. Managed a 4th place in her only previous run here at Lonchamp.
9/2 Humor Kirby(KY) – #5
Trainer: kirby55
(Distorted Humor x Kingmambo x Mr. Prospector)
A 4yo filly from Ojai Valley Stables who runs at this distance for the first time. Has 6 wins from 18 runs including 2 stakes victories at much shorter distances, and is another one who will by vying for an early lead. Ran well in her only graded entry despite finishing only seventh, so she obviously has the ability, but I have serious doubts that she will get this distance.
5/1 Bunny Ranch Crypt(KY) – #1
Trainer: tyr
(Cryptoclearance x Carson City x Pine Bluff)
A 4yo from Tees Stables who is a nightmare example of what can happen when you run a 2yo in a claimer too early. Originally bred by vegasjef her 2yo career was mostly on dirt, although she did win her maiden in an off-turf race. It seems her trainer was losing patience with her and subsequently entered her in a $5000 claimer, which she easily won and was snapped up by her current trainer who immediately switched her to turf. Since then she has won 3 stakes and the G1 World Cup Ladies Turf Classic, beating Botjeu Tete(IRE) in the process, and has won over $500k in prize money. Not bad for a $5k claimer! She easily won an allowance in her first race of the year so will be sharp here, though as yet another one who likes the early lead may find it tougher going than that race.
5/1 Kid Thunder – #6
Trainer: bountyhawk
(Thunder Gulch x Lemon Drop Kid x Dayjur)
A 5yo from Eaglehawk3 Stables bred by rhinos from a reasonable class E mare. She struggled as a 2yo and was dropped down to claimers as a 3yo, changing hands a couple of times before being snapped up by her current stable, winning a few allowance races before gaining her only stakes win over 12 furlongs. She’s already run twice this year including a second place last time over 14 furlongs, but I am not sure she is quite good enough to have much of a say here.
6/1 Tiz Fresh(KY) – #7
Trainer: tiznice
(Dynaformer x Forty Niner x Auction Ring)
Yet another 4yo, this time from Pierchinski Stables and bred by infinity from a good class E mare who has produced other good offspring. 4 wins from her 11 runs but no stakes wins as yet, but she can’t be far away from success, despite a disappointing run in a G3 race last time out. She has won here over 10 furlongs so should probably not be overlooked and at 6/1 looks a reasonable each way bet.
16/1 Loud Gator – #4
Trainer: greynomad
(End Sweep x Vigors x Tentam)
The outsider and oldest mare of the race, this 8yo comes from Tulloch Stables. Just 5 wins from her 27 races, with no stakes wins, probably gives the game away and I think she will struggle here in this company. Lost her last race by 23 lengths and will be trying to reduce that significantly.
Summary
With so many proven front runners in this field it’s hard to see that anyone will manage to come with a late run at the end – surely they can’t all fade. On balance I think the favourite, Alpine Wings(IRE) may just about manage to snatch the win here but I am expecting a very close finish and it will be a case of leaving enough gas in the tank for that final sprint finish.
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LAST WEEK
The LOGJAMMIN’ Stakes went pretty much as predicted with the favourite, 4yo filly Hello I Love You(ENG), being forced to make much of the early running before being beaten in the final stretch by experienced 6yo Getaloadofthis. Both managed to post excellent sp#’s however – 108 and 106 – so both trainers will be looking forward to their next runs, and perhaps preparing for something a little special in the future. 3rd placed Kgbeast sadly never got a look in and had already come under pressure by the halfway mark, whilst veteran and 9 times graded winner Fat Free Car finished a long way back in what proved to be her last ever race.
1st GETALOADOFTHIS
2nd HELLO I LOVE YOU(ENG)
3rd KGBEAST(IRE)