SIX RUNNERS SEEKING THE FLY

Taiwan is running fast this weekend and we have just 5 3yo fillies competing for the $40,000 purse on offer over the 7.5 furlong dirt track.  Joint favourites head the betting in what looks to be a closely matched field as all 5 of them would expect a top 3 place at the very least.  Someone is going to be disappointed. The betting is:  

2/1 Oregeny(TUR)
2/1 Mambo On The Moon(SAF)
3/1 Thunder Belle(KY)
7/2 Attitudeadjustment(KY)
6/1 Bloody Drum(CAN)

Analysis

2/1 Oregeny(TUR) – #2
Trainer: verywide
(Mountain Cat x Gone West x Seattle Slew)
Bred by her trainer, part of Fastnfirm Stables, and based on an unimpressive G grade mare, this filly won her first 3 races in very easy fashion.  However her first race as a 3yo, which coincided with her first stakes start,  proved to be a disappointment as she only managed a third place with an sp# to match.  That was over the same distance as this race so doesn’t bode too well.  If she doesn’t improve here I can see her either dropping back to 6 furlongs or even getting a turf start next time.

2/1 Mambo On The Moon(SAF) – #4
Trainer: alces
(Victory Moon(SAF) x Danzig x In Reality)
The other joint favourite, part of the Jumpmoose Stables, already has two stakes wins to her name as a 2yo.  Like Oregeny(TUR) her first 3yo outing didn’t go quite as planned and she also had to settle for third place, but if her 2yo form holds up she looks the better over this distance.   

3/1 Thunder Belle(KY) – #3
Trainer: caddywampu
(Unbridled’s Song x Storm Cat x Raise A Native)
Bred by the trainer this filly has only 1 win from her 5 starts, a rather weak stakes race.  Although she has continued to improve subsequently she was beaten by both Oregeny(TUR) and Attitudeadjustment(KY) last time out, managing only 4th place and is unlikely to reverse that position.

7/2 Attitudeadjustment(KY) – #5
Trainer: super8
(Street Cry (IRE) x Nureyev x Bold Ruler)
A filly from the More Evil Than The Evil Empire! who began her racing life on turf, winning her first race well. Switched to dirt for her second win in an allowance and was runner up in her first race as a 3yo where she beat both Oregeny(TUR) and Thunder Belle(KY).  She should go well again here.  

6/1 Bloody Drum(CAN) – #1
Trainer: xfile
(Buie x Agile Shoebill x Shelter Half)
The most experienced filly here with 9 runs was a cheap breeding by the trainer who duly won her first two claiming entries on turf.  After switching to dirt she has won a further 5 races, including 2 stakes runs, and gets her first run of 2008 here.  Her only failures so far seem to have occured on turf or at 8 furlongs so she looks a lot better here than her odds may suggest.  Easily beat Thunder Belle(KY) a couple of races ago, albeit at 5.5 furlongs, so could be the bet of the race.

Summary

A nice race despite the small field which Mambo On The Moon(SAF) looks to have for the taking despite a disappointing result in her last outing.   There are a few here who are prepared to make the running so it will be a furious first 3 furlongs, especially with such fast going predicted.  Bloody Drum(CAN) could pull off a surprise if she has recovered from a poor showing on turf last time out .