Sharp Pinky Challenge to test turf marathoners

Virginia turn over the track to the longer routers this week in the card’s highlight race, the third annual running of the Sharp Pinky Challenge. The race, for all horse four years old and older, runs over thirteen furlongs of firm turf, and carries a $45000 purse. Last year’s race was a no contest, with even odds favorite Surgeon Tubes simply crushing a field of five. Closing from nearly twelve out at the half, he owned the last quarter of the race, running away down the stretch to an eight and a quarter length victory. This year’s race draws a field of six, with a single four year old running against a field of five year olds. Odds are relatively tight, with an 8/5 favorite, backed by a 2/1 and 3/1 choice. Two more horses weigh in at 8/1 or better, with the longshot coming to the gate at 16/1 odds. That doesn’t leave much for that big strike at the betting window this week. After the nice success at the betting window for the past two weeks, handicappers can just sit back and enjoy this one.

PP 1) Expected Yield Sired by High Yield, Trained by super8. Expected Yield is a five year old horse coming into his thirty third start proudly carrying a ranking of 30 in the older Long Turf division. He has a pair of stakes wins to his credit, the most recent coming July of last year, as well as a pair of in the money finishes at graded level later last season. His last ten starts have seen him run to a 2-2-1-1-1 record, with three 100+ speeds, capped by a 102.2 earned in a Grade 3 outing in Dubai earned two starts back. His last race was the DCPD Turf Classic, where he started to close at the half before being overrun by the deeper closers, finishing seventh. He started his career on dirt, suffering seconditis through his first four, but broke his maiden on turf in his next start, and never seriously looked back. He really blossomed when his trainer was able to stretch him out into longer routes, posting four of his six career victories, and staying competitive up through graded level. He has eight top three finishes in eleven tries at twelve furlongs and beyond. He has been experimenting with his running style over the last several races. He has shown brief flashes of hope as a midpack closer, but his last two victories both came wire to wire with a fast break from the gate. This race looks to be front loaded with a lot of early speed, and it could be a stalker’s day. If he can sit just off the lead, he should pick off some late in this one.

PP 2) Dane Experiment(AUS) Sired by Danbird(AUS), Trained by leiter. Dane Experiment is a realtively lightly raced five year old, taking the gate for only his twentieth career run in this one. He has plenty of stakes experience, but is still looking for that elusive first win at this level. Over the course of his last ten, he has posted a 2-3-1-2-1 record, with a top speed of 98.0 earned in an allowance victory last August. His last start was at the Minnesota Festival, in the turf marathon at sixteen furlongs, where he finished third after succembing in an early speed duel. His hooves have never touched dirt over the course of his career, but with eleven top three finishes in nineteen starts, who needs dirt? He has six top three finishes in eleven tries at twelve furlongs and beyond, and that has been his money maker recently. He is a fast starter and he is at his best when he can put up a big early cushion. He won’t have that luxury here, with the abundance of early speed. He hasn’t fared his best when he is challenged early. His stamina will generally hold him in the race though. Look for him to finish this one in just about the same position he finds himself at first call.

PP 3) Storm’s Gone Sired by Strong Hope, Trained by boldruler. Storm’s Gone is a five year old horse, stepping to the track for his twenty ninth career start here. His run in a number of recent stakes outing, but he is still looking for his first taste of glory at stakes level. His last ten starts have left him with a record of 1-1-1-2-0, with a top speed number of 101.3 earned on dirt two starts back. His last race was a sixteen furlong dirt stake in Michigan, where he had his worst outing since early in his three year old season, finishing a distant sixth in a field of seven. His career has been a fairly even split between surfaces, and while his top speed is on dirt, his turf average speed is nearly 10% higher. At twelve furlongs and beyond on turf, he has three top three finishes in eight tries, but has never broken the 95 speed barrier in these longer routes. He generally runs as a midpack to deep closer, but his close has been spotty at best over his last several starts. This race is begging for a strong closer, but his speed figures and lackdaiscal perfromance in recent outings tell me he’s not the one here.

PP 4) Dinobonesaur Sired by Dehere, Trained by lilthunder. Dinobonesaur makes his thirty fifth career start, running here in his five year old season. This will be only his third stakes start for this former claimer, and he is still looking for his first stakes victory after a pair of near misses. He has gone 2-3-1-1-0 in his last ten starts, posting a best speed number of 102.2 earned in a stakes at this distance two starts back. His last race was an A2s outing in Maryland, where he went gate to wire to best a field of eight by four lengths. His career has been a mix of both dirt and turf, and he has wins on both surfaces, as well as 100+ speeds, but his average speeds on turf have been significantly higher. He has run well anywhere from ten furlongs and beyond, but has only two turf starts at twelve and beyond, both resulting in second place finishes, indicating he might prefer something a bit shorter. He spent the first half of his career as a midpack to deep closer, doing quite well, but under his new trainer, he has never failed to break for the lead from the gate and he has proven successful at that, as well. He prefers a big cushion if he can get it, and early speed duels have been a mixed bag for him. He’ll have plenty of company up front in this one, and the question for him will be whether he can hold out in a race that seems to be longer than he generally prefers.

PP 5) Tycoon Celebre(IRE) Sired by Peintre Celebre(IRE), Trained by togaparty. Tycoon Celebre(IRE) is the youngster of this field at four years old, and he steps to the track for his fifteenth career start. He is making only his second career stakes start here after being picked up in a high level claim after his last run, and he is seeking his first stakes victory. He boasts a 2-0-2-3-2 record in his last ten runs, with a top speed number of 90.2 earned in July of last year. His last start was a 50K claim race at twelve furlongs in Delaware, where he finished third in a field of eight, sitting just off the lead throughout. Turf has been his home through most of his career, with his single dirt start only serving to reinforce the fact that turf is where he belongs. Both career victories have come at eleven furlongs or better, and in four starts at twelve and beyond, he has three top three finishes. He generally breaks as a stalker or midpack closer, but his close has been virtually non-existent. He has had better luck breaking out near the front early, but in this race that could hurt him more than help, as well. Unless he experiences a serious jump in speed figures here, look for him to throw in the towel early.

PP 6) Cortez(IRE) Sired by High Chaparral(IRE), Trained by slipknot22. Cortez(IRE) is a five year old horse, gracing the track for his thirty third career race. He comes in at a divisional rank of number 40, with ten career stakes wins, including five Grade I and two other graded victories. He enters this one as the odds on favorite. He has put up a record of 3-1-1-3-0 in his last ten starts, with six 100+ speeds, topped off by a blazing 110.5 in a Grade 2 victory last July. His last run was a stakes at this distance in Illinois, where he gave up a four length lead down the stretch to finish a relatively close fourth in a field of nine. He has tried dirt, pretty much simply to say that he has, but he has undoubtedly been at his best on the grass. Marathons have been his bread and butter, and in twenty starts at twelve furlongs and beyond, he has seven wins and eleven top three finishes. He has performed well as both a stalker and a midpack closer, and either pace should serve him well in this race with the early speed up front. His speeds have been fading in his last two starts, but when this has happened in the past, he has turned around and put up some impressive numbers in his next starts. This race should give him a perfect setup for his style, and if he posts the speed he is capable of, he will walk away with this one down the stretch.