Galileos and Frankels Dominate Juvy Turf Field
The final race on Friday’s big Breeders’ Bowl card is the Juvenile Turf. The one mile race is a mixed showcase of hot two year olds with those that are just starting to show their potential and may go on to do well in the three year old classics. There are four grade one winners in the field and four horses looking for their first stakes win, an interesting anomaly. The other six runners are all grade two or grade three winners. As mentioned in the headline five of the runners are either by Galileo or his son Frankel, showing the potency of this line. In addition a sixth runner is by Galileo’s half brother Sea the Stars. While those sires are certainly among the elite in the game we all know that pedigree only gets you so far and it does not guarantee that any of these will be the winners. Let’s take a look at all the runners.
#1 NYSP Stands 8/1
Breaking from post position one is our first son of Frankel. NYSP Stands has won two of three starts. After an impressive and dominating maiden win in June going seven furlongs he was immediately jumped into stakes company. Nearly two months after the maiden win his connections upped the distance by a sixteenth of a mile in a listed stakes race. He got good position early on, running fifth by about four lengths before making a sustained run around the far turn and coming up just a half length short at the finish line. On shorter rest (only about five weeks) NYSP Stands moved up to a mile in the Grade Three Summertime Stakes. His running style changed drastically as he battled for the lead early on before taking the lead around the turn and grinding away to a three quarter length win at the finish. The horse he battled early finished a gallant second and the two were three lengths ahead of the third place finisher, indicating they are both quality runners with bright futures. He ran a very strong 93 SP in that spot, a very good number for this field. NYSP Stands is a scratchbred with a Sadler’s Wells x Giant’s Causeway backend. Sadler’s Wells is the grandsire of Frankel so this colt is inbred 3×2 to him. Interestingly the superstar mare Enable is bred on a similar cross, being by Galileo son Nathaniel out of a Sadler’s Wells mare.
#2 My Thoughts 14/1
The first of the four grade one winners in the field is My Thoughts. He is also the most experienced colt in the race with seven starts. Four of those races resulted in wins and two with seconds. His only off the board effort came when he was fourth in his debut. My Thoughts has never tried a route which may be concerning. The son of Dark Angel was produced by a grade two winning Myboycharlie x Forest Wildcat mare who won all of her races in sprints and sire Dark Angel is best known for his sprinting offspring. My Thoughts scored the biggest win of his career in his most recent start, the Grade One Middlepark Stakes at six furlongs. In that race he battled for the early lead before taking it around the turn and holding off the closers to win by a length. He ran a 90 speed in that spot, a career best. He showed a bit of versatility in his previous start, the Grade One Nonethorpe at five furlongs where he sat sixth early on and was over three lengths off the early pace before making a sustained run to lose by just a half length. In this field that does have several horses who may gun for the lead that ability to rate will be useful for him but whether he can make the same late run going a mile is a question mark.
#3 Neon Galaxy 9/1
Neon Galaxy’s owner Nextbonus has two runners in the field (the other being Giant’s Starway). Nextbonus is worried about this colt running on just three weeks rest but he reminds us of that old saying ‘no guts, no glory’. And certainly that applies to this colt. He’s won four of five starts with the capper being his last start and only route, the Grade Three Winter favorite. In that race he really dominated the field. After sitting in second (but five lengths off the early leader) he ran down that horse and opened up to win by two and a half lengths with a 90 SP. He ran an 88 speed in his previous start, a seven furlong listed which he again won by open lengths. His only loss came in his stakes debut at six and a half furlongs but the feeling is he learned a lot in that race and it certainly seems he wants every bit of that mile distance. He’s a son of the German stallion Adlerflug who was upgraded several years back out of a grade two winning Danehill Dancer x Giant’s Causeway mare. He is her second foal to win a stakes race out of seven to race. If there is any chink in his armor it is that she did her best running under a mile although her pedigree along with the stamina Adlerflug provides suggests that a mile should be in reach for their offspring.
#4 Angaston 8/1
By the speedy sire Choisir out of a Zoustar x Lonhro mare comes Angaston. He is another of our grade one winners in the field and he scored that win in the six furlong Blue Diamond Road. He was also second in the Grade One Firebird at the same distance and has a grade two win going five furlongs. Overall he’s got a 6-4-2-0 record so he is a strong contender. Although his biggest win came at six furlongs his most impressive is probably his last race, the Grade Three Wooden Reserve at a mile and a sixteenth. He scored a facile win in that spot, sitting third early (over three lengths off the early leaders) before making a closing rush to win by two and a quarter lengths with a 93 speed. He’s less than three thousand dollars away from getting a million dollar badge, easily the richest horse in the field. He’s co-second choice in the field and deservedly so. If he can improve off that last race he’ll be right in the mix.
#5 Quarter Drafts 10/1
Quarter Drafts is an interesting horse. He’s only got one win from five starts but he has twice finished second in graded stakes races. He broke his maiden in his second start going seven furlongs in June, the first month that races that long were carded. He ran an 82 speed there and immediately jumped into the Grade Three Golden HandGrenade at the same distance just a month later. In that race he battled for the early lead but could not sustain his speed and was run down by fellow entrant Giant’s Starway late. Again off only a months’ rest he was entered in the Grade One Blue Diamond Road at six furlongs where he never got close to the early lead and ran a fairly even seventh. Stretched out to a mile in his most recent race he sat in fourth early on before making a good closing run to be second in the Grade Two Bedford Stakes again chasing home a fellow entrant, Break Away Dunk. He ran a 92 speed there which is right up there with some of the best in this field. Interestingly that race was run at the end of September so he’s got an extra couple of weeeks’ rest compared to his previous starts which may be a big benefit for this colt. He’s a son of Galileo out of a graded place / stakes winning Dansili x Unbridled’s Song mare. She did her best running sprinting but won her only route start. Her only other foal is the grade one winning Uncle Mo filly Pabst Blue Ribbon whose biggest win came at a mile and a quarter. Second ‘dam’ is the Champion Three Year4 Old of 2014 Quarter Water whose biggest win was the Breeders’ Bowl Turf Sprint.
#6 Giant’s Starway
The second entrant from the Nextbonus stables is Giant’s Starway. Nexbonus believes this is the stronger of his two competitors for two reasons – the first is that he is bred to be a major player and the second is that he has had six weeks since his last start, leading Nextbonus to believe he’s sitting on a very big race. Giant’s Starway is a son of Sea the Stars out of a stakes winning Giant’s Causeway x Awesome Again mare who has also produced a grade three winner by Frankel from three foals to race. She is a half sister to a grade two winner by Frankel. This colt has three wins from four starts, all in sprints. In his sprint starts he sat midpack early on before pouncing on the leaders and holding off the closers, winning both a listed and the Grade Three GoldenHandgrenade by a length and a quarter. In that second race he ran a very strong 90 SP in July, a very strong number for that time of year. Giant’s Starway had two months off before tackling his first route race in the Grade Two Royal Lodge at a mile. Instead of sitting midpack he was way back in twelfth at the first call but he had a very strong finishing kick, coming from seventh at the stretch call to finish second by only a length and three quarters. If there are two question marks for this colt it is that he only improved his SP from a 90 going seven furlongs to a 91 going a mile. Also even though his dam is a quality mare she did her best running sprinting and that can often transfer over to a foal’s preferences (although Sea the Stars does impart a good amount of stamina).
#7 King Zous 9/1
Equinics winner King Zous is making his route debut in this spot. The Equinics of course was a six furlong race which is the longest distance this colt has ever run. Indeed his last four runs have all been at that distance. In addition to the Equinics win he also took a listed stakes and a grade three stakes. This colt tends to come from midpack early on and his late runs saw him win his first four races. He lost that undefeated status in his most recent start, the Grade One Middlepark Stakes. In that race he was a bit closer to the pace early on than he was in the Equinics race running fifth by a length at the first call and finishing second by a length at the finish behind My Thoughts whom he faces again here. His speed dropped off from a 92 in the Equinics to an 88 in the Middlepark. He had a two month layoff between the two races and will only have about a month off for this race so perhaps he needed a sharpening race. He’s a son of Zoustar out of a grade three winning Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy mare. He is her fourth foal and first stakes winner. She was a pure sprinter who won her biggest race at seven furlongs.
#8 Darkside Dream 13/1
The second son of Frankel in the field is Darkside Dream. He is looking for his first stakes win in this spot but he was very unlucky to not win his most recent start. That was the Grade Two Knick Knack Juvenile at a mile (his first try at a route) which saw him finish second by a head after making a closing move. He ran a 92 SP in that spot which is very competitive in this spot. What may be his greatest asset is his pedigree which suggests the mile distance may just be the sweet spot for his family. His dam by Will Take Charge was a stakes winner at six furlongs and a mile but her grade three winning dam by Tiznow did her best running at a mile. She is a half sister to three graded stakes winners, including a grade one winner who all won their best races at either a mile or a mile and a sixteenth. Darkside Dream had four sprint races prior to his stretch out and he won three of them including an allowance at seven and a half furlong prep for the Knick Knack Juvenile where he ran an 86 SP. His only off the board finish came in a grade three. He doesn’t seem to have a strong turn of foot, he’s more of a grinder who uses his early speed to sit close to the front runners and then slowly move up.
#9 Break Away Dunk 7/1
The favorite in this spot is Break Away Dunk. The son of Frankel is out of a grade two winning Street Cry x Danzig mare and is her fifth foal, her second graded stakes winner and fourth stakes winner. His dam ran almost exclusively at a mile which is where she scored her biggest victory and also was grade one placed. Break Away Dunk has won all three of his starts and his last two starts came at a mile. The first saw him sit second but allow the early leader to open up a substantial lead before making a middle move and putting the field away to win by nearly three lengths. That race was a local bred allowance with only a seven horse field so the quality of competition was dubious. Still he ran a very strong 88 SP and was enough to encourage his connections to jump straight into the Grade Two Bedford Stakes. In that race he was fifth early on but actually closer to the early lead than he had been in the allowance. Again he made a strong middle move and won by a length and a half with a 94 SP. It’s hard to play against an undefeated horse with this type of speed and versatility.
#10 Exbourne’s Siykel 13/1
Ten horses in this field have been in the money in 100% of their races and that includes Exbourne’s Siykel. He owns a 6-3-2-1 record and has earned over $400,000. The son of Siyouni is out of a graded placed / stakes winning Frankel x Woodman mare and is her first foal. She was a stakes winner at a mile and three sixteenths (ironically on the dirt) and was three times graded placed at routes including up to that distance. So stamina should be no problem for this colt. Ironically though his worst finish came when third in the one mile Grade Two Champagne Mile but that race was back in July which was very early for two year olds to start running routes so it is perhaps forgivable that he was not able to step up in that spot. It was also his stakes debut which is always a difficult step up for a horse of any age, particularly when they skip the listed step. That certainly seemed the case for Exbourne’s Siykel who bounced out of that race to run a banger of a race in the Grade Two Future just one month later. That race came just a month later but he improved his SP by 7 points to run an 89, a career best. Both the Future and his most recent start, the Grade Two Boone’s Farm were at seven furlongs. He finished second in the latter race but he was running back on just three weeks rest and he will have over six weeks rest between that start to this. In his sprint starts Exbourne’s Siykel has sat midpack before making his run but in that lone route he was a bit further back early. Again with all the asterisks surrounding that start it is difficult to say if the mile distance will see him come from further back or if he will use his tactical speed early on.
#11 Brazen Nile 20/1
The longest shot on the board may offer the most value of any horse in the race. He already has a grade one win to his credit and he’s never been off the board in six career starts which includes four wins. He earned his grade one back in early August going six furlongs in the More Nay Stakes where he came from eleventh early on to win by a solid length with an 84 SP. That was one race after a grade three win at the same distance that showed an almost identical run. He was given two months off after that start and came back to run third in the Grade One Middlepark Stakes, also at six furlongs where he made his patented late run only to come up a length and a half short to run third with an 86 SP. He’s running back now on just a four week rest which may see him a bitter sharper than in his last run. The obvious question mark is can he route? He’s a son of Brazen Beau out of a Pioneerof the Nile x Gone West mare. He is her fourth foal and second stakes winner (first graded winner). She also has a stakes placed offspring. Ironically the stakes winner is by Tiznow who most associate with stamina but the foal is a pure sprinter. The stakes placed runner is by Sebring but runs very well at middle distances, as does her fourth foal, an allowance winner by Declaration of War. So pedigree doesn’t give us a great clue as to what Brazen Nile will do at a mile. But certainly at 20/1 he is a proven class horse and his speeds are competitive here.
#12 Rockbone’s Ironside 13/1
Three horses in this field are seeking their first stakes win in this spot, the least experienced of which is Rockbone’s Ironside with only four starts to his name. The New Zealand bred son of Dundeel out of a graded placed / stakes winning Giant’s Causeway x Tapit mare comes from a very strong family – his second dam is a grade three winner and both his third and fourth dams are grade one winners. Rockbone’s Ironside has certainly made the most of his four starts as he has never been out of the money. His last two starts have come at one mile in graded stakes races. Back in July he was second in the Grade Two Champagne Mile where he stalked the early pace, took the lead at the stretch call but tired late to be beaten by two and a half lengths. He returned two months later to finish third in the Grade Three Summertime where he was closer to the early lead and again was run down late. He did run an 89 SP in that spot which is close to the tops in this field. He’ll also run back on a bit shorter rest in this spot. There is a fair amount of midpack runners here so it will be interesting to see if his jockey sends him early or tries to take him back further to make one big run at the end. If the latter he will certainly be gaining ground late but if he goes too fast early on he may not have the stamina to better his last finishing runs. It also may be that this colt prefers sprint distances. Difficult call.
#13 Exbourne’s Turnon 11/1
Exbourne’s Turnon and Exbourne’s Siykel obviously come from the same connections but impressively they are also in the same barn. This colt is a son of Dark Angel based on a Giant’s Causeway x Kingmambo hemare. That horse was only an allowance winner but he won fourteen starts overall including eleven wins routing. He’s a good example of why taking a well bred solid runner makes sense to pay extra to use as a hemare as his son is already a grade three winner. He earned that distinction in his most recent and only route race, the Looking Forward Stakes. That race was run at the end of August and his speed of 94 is among the tops in this field. In that spot he sat fifth off the early lead by three lengths before making a sustained run and winning by a length and three quarters. Exbourne’s Turnon’s only non-winning effort came in his prior start the Grade Two Vintage Stakes at seven furlongs. That was his stakes debut and as has been discussed jumping straight from allowance to graded stakes is a difficult ask for any horse. It also represented a big change in running style for the colt. In his two previous races he battled for the early lead but in the Vintage he found himself in seventh at the first call. He responded well in the stretch, closing to finish third beaten just a length and three quarters. It’s always encouraging to see a horse change tactics so drastically and not get discouraged by the kickback he endures for the first time. It’s important to note that in the Vintage he was a bit further back early on than he would find himself in the Looking Forward and that early advantage likely made a big impact on his final finishing positition, although the move to a mile certainly didn’t hurt either.
#14 Kick the Ace 8/1
Kick the Ace is the last horse in the field looking for his first stakes win. He does have three wins and a second from five starts. Kick the Ace started his career in a residency restricted maiden where he ran an 81 SP which was very strong for early April. He went on to win an allowance as a prep to represent his residency in the Equinics. Unfortunately he just never lifted a hoof in that spot, resulting in his only off the board effort. His connections rightfully believed their colt would improve at a route as he is a son of Galileo out of a graded placed Kingman x Kingmambo mare. She was best as a two year old on the dirt and really came alive when moved from sprinting to route. She earned a spot in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly by finishing second, beaten only three quarters of a length in a grade two stakes but her Breeders’ Bowl run saw her finish tenth. She is also a half sister to a grade one winner by Dansili who did his best running at a mile and a quarter. So it was no surprise to see Kick the Ace move forward big time when he made the move to a mile. Five weeks after the Equinics he destroyed an allowance field at that distance, coming from next to last to win going away by two and a quarter lengths. He ran a bang-up 91 speed there, a number he would repeat in his next race, the Grade Two Grand Critter Stakes. In that spot he was last early on and again made a big closing run but it was not quite enough to get the win. Often horses who repeat speeds in two consecutive starts are signaling that they are sitting on a big improvement next out and of the three non-stakes winning entrants here this colt probably has the best shot to change that status in this race.
Good luck to all!