Oh, Canada! Million Dollar ‘Mile Takes BB Contenders To ‘Xtreme’s

Ontario’s circuit has a Super Saturday of sorts happening this weekend, when they play host to a pair of graded stakes races designed to gear various contenders up for next month’s Breeders Bowl card.  The sophomore distaffers gear up for the Grade III Oaks, but our focus here is the incredibly contentious mile division, which gets a important Grade I race this weekend in the $1,000,000 Canada Mile.  With the Breeders Bowl Mile a very wide open affair this time around, this race will go a long way to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Among the gathered field of fourteen are:

• The top miler in the distaff turf division
• Two other fillies taking on the boys
• One other grade I winner
• The top sophomore miler
• One other three-year-old colt facing his elders,
• Last year’s Canada Mile champion
• The third-ranked older male turf miler
• Two horses wheeling back on only two weeks rest
• A horse currently with a seven-race winning streak
• A two-time Grade II winner from this year
• A Grade III winner this year, and
• A graded-placed colt looking for his first stakes win

Phew. 

There’s something for every taste in this bunch, and away we go…

Jolie’s Song holds the role of favorite for the catspaw stables, and that’s a lukewarm honor given the evenly matched field; she’s only 9/2.  This daughter of Buddha has based her four-year-old campaign on doing battle with the males, and she’s faced her own gender just once this year, where she finished second.  While the rest of the distaffers heaved a big sigh of relief, she’s had some modest success versus the boys, with a Grade II win in Japan, three second-place finishes (all in Grade I’s), and two third-place results this season.  She’ll be coming like a freight train late, her figures have remained constantly in the mid-100s and higher, and she returns to North America for the first time since last December.  If the trip across the ocean doesn’t affect her, she’ll be one tough dame here.

Xtremely A Fan is the third-ranked miler in the turf handicap division, and this late-developing son of A.P. Indy has left his mark on the lawn this year.  Trained by the ejdstables, the four-year-old has a pair of Grade III wins this year, was second five times and third once, and likes to close late as well.  He just missed last out in a French Grade I, ships back over for the first time since May, and gets a capable journeyman in the irons.  He’s experimented at different distances, but the mile is his ace in the hole, and approaches this one in the right fashion.  Of the older males here, he’s first among equals and his feet will have wings in the stretch.

Digging The Grave is lightly raced, with thirteen starts, and highly successful, with nine wins in his career.  Trained by zewango2, this four-year-old son of Silver Ghost is on one helluva tear, with a seven-race winning streak coming into this million-dollar race, which includes three graded stakes wins, all at sprint distances.  The numbers have constantly broke the century mark since the streak began, and he, too, has been splitting time between the two divisions, returning from his wire job in Victoria for this.  He’s likely the one to dictate the pace, but what might be a bit troublesome is the distance: he has won at a mile and a mile-and-a-sixteenth, but has been most effective going shorter, and with some fierce closing kicks in the field, wiring this bunch will be incredibly difficult.  How much success he will have in this Grade I will depend on how much company he’ll face up front early on.

Niner Connection is the top three-year-old miler on grass, and as a son of Forty Niner who’s never been off the board in his career, he’s aiming for a Breeders Bowl Mile berth here by facing older horses for the first time, at his best distance.  He’s trained by n2racing2, and has been battle-tested this year, with a pair of Grade I wins on both sides of the Atlantic in ’05.  It’s been feast or famine for him this season, with those two wins and six thirds in his past performances, and while his numbers against his own demographic have been very encouraging, they do fall a notch below the best speed figures of his elders here.  He comes from off the pace, but unlike the favorites, he’s not a really deep closing threat, which might give him a little advantage when the late charge begins.  If he can get to the front before the other closers kick into gear, his youth might work to his advantage.

Kiki’s Solid Rock, trained by gdfarm, is a four-year-old son of Forty Niner with some early speed in his genes, and he’s had an up-and-down campaign in 2005.  His two turf starts this year resulted in a pair of Grade II wins, two dazzling efforts, but his one dirt start in between these should be thrown out completely, as both the 14-furlong distance and the dirt conspired to get him eased.  He’s proven himself effective when sprinting, but this is a heady place to try going longer than seven furlongs on grass for the first time.  Turf sprints are where it’s at for him, and while he should press a swift early pace, it’s rather unclear how he’ll be able to fare here.  His figures on grass, though, sit snugly among these, and he’s only had three starts this year, so he should still be plenty rested for his best.

Satrustegui is a tongue-twister with a love of Canada.  This four-year-old son of Forty Niner won last year’s Canada Mile from off the pace, at 13-1, with a sparkling 115 to show for it.  He almost upset the ’05 Breeders Bowl Mile at 9-1 last October, but that aside, he only has one win since last year’s upset win.  This bagur trainee might have lost a step this year, but never count out a returning champion.  If Ken Jennings could be victorious repeatedly on Jeopardy, this returning champ could find comfort in the ’05 edition of this race.  He’ll be coming late once more, but his numbers need to get better in a hurry here.

Gingobell is the other three-year-old debuting against older horses in this field.  This notturna1 trainee got some career rejuvenation when he switched to the turf this spring; while on dirt his speed figures broke 100 a couple of times, his turf figs have been constantly over the century mark, with a pair of stakes wins.  He’s making his graded grass debut, though, in a pretty tough spot, against some truly mesmorizing speed numbers compared to his, and while his age is an advantage, he prefers to sit just off the lead, which, with a field with some vicious late speed, isn’t necessarily an asset.  Nevertheless, the mile distance seems to suit him well, and depending on how well he rates among these, he might hang around for a while.

Radke’s Revenge is a six-year-old son of Seeking The Gold with a lot of grass experience over his lengthy career, winning ten times.  He’s Grade II-placed, this joshua trainee, but has seemingly always come up a little short whenever he’s faced stakes-level horses.  He only one second-place finish and three third-place finishes in thirteen stakes efforts, and his best speed figures came about a year and a half ago.  The mile’s a good distance for him, and his late run fits well among these, but there are a few here who look to be more on their game this weekend.

Jungleland is wheeled back on two weeks of rest following his third in the Fivestarnick a couple weeks back.  Trained by estreet, this son of Danzig pressed the leaders between horses in that Grade II early on before fading late.  But a similar effort might not get the job done, because of the steamroller-type presence of some of the closers.  A little racing luck, and a bit more restraint, might serve him better in this field; yet it also might not help to have recent figures well below the favorites.  This comes up a little rougher than the Fivestarnick, alas.

Lyric Poet is a five-year-old son of Dixieland Band for the opinora stables, and he’s a veteran of the grass wars, having all ten wins come on the lawn.  This year, he went all out to capture the Grade III Strange Brew, earning a speed figure of 115 in the process, but it took an awful lot out of him, with only a second and a third in a Grade III since, with speed figures well below that earlier 115.  He’s a stakes veteran at middle distances, with a history of solid numbers backing his past performances up, but this is a hard place to, to borrow a phrase, regain his mojo.  One should never ignore back class in handicapping, but in this million dollar mile, he appears in tough.

Seespotrun is the other member of the field wheeled back from the Fivestarnick on just two weeks of rest.  This son of Rahy for the chaseadar stable was one of the early pacesetters stalked by Jungleland in New York, who faded after a half-mile to wind up sixth.  He’s usually better served by lying in wait in mid-pack than going towards the front, and it might not be a bad idea here; his numbers might fall a touch short of the favorites at their best, but when he picks up a head of steam, he too is a factor almost anywhere.  The short break should be a little disconcerting, but his run back to his Prize Winner form from three starts back could possibly make him a player.

Pop Culture is one of the other fillies taking on older males in this Grade I, and this five-year-old daughter of Rahy for lenny11 does have a win and a pair of seconds when she battles the boys.  Those efforts, though, have been in allowance company.  Her numbers are on the low end of being competitive versus these big guns, and she’s making her graded debut in a million-dollar race.  Her win in her restricted Smackdown race was very nice, and she likes to come from off the pace, but that’s a similar style to so many horses in here, and she would possibly prefer some extra ground, as well.

Sword Of Miswaki, for gdfarm, is a son of Miswaki who has only four starts this year.  Last year’s 2000 Guineas winner, he has a preference for middle distances, and likes to sit near the front end of things.  Plus, he has a ton of back class on the Grade I stage, picking up a paycheck in most of his races at this level.  Nevertheless, this four-year-old has been a touch slow to get into the game this year, and his speed figures in ’05 seem a bit off.  While the tendency might be to look elsewhere, his freshness might just allow him to pop at a price, and he’ll play a role in the pace scenario.  Breaking from the hedge, though, could prove the decisive blow.

Triestar, for goody5, is a four-year-old daughter of Old Trieste whose numbers fall off from the favorites considerably, but she’s giving the appearance of rounding into form.  In winning the Grade III Sportnwood Distaff, she broke from the outside, came charging down the lane late to score by three-quarters of a length.  In the Grade III Philly Cheesesteak next out, a similar sweeping move late almost got her an upset win against the boys.  She’s capable of running with the big ones here, has a serious late move, and the boys don’t scare her too much.  She may be the longest price on the board, but she’s worth looking at when contemplating a trifecta wager.  It’ll take a major bounce upwards, but if the pace to chase is swift enough, keep your eyes peeled for her move.

My selections:

1. Xtremely A Fan
2. Niner Connection
3. Jolie’s Halo
4. Digging The Grave
5. Triestar
6. Satrustegui

Good luck, and happy racing!