The CLAUDIA Memorial

This week in Alabama features another field of 4yo and up mares, but they will be tackling the dirt course this week. They will go a mile and a half in this ungraded stakes and the winner will take home $36,000 of the $60,000 purse.

1- BELEM(IRE) 20-6-5-3 M McKyer 9/1

ID # 123683 4 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Stable maruxa THEATRICAL(IRE) x JADE HUNTER x BOLD BIDDER

Belem(IRE) likes to hang out in the back of the pack at the beginning of most of her races. She has been in the bottom three after the first call and in the bottom half after the second call in every race of her career. She has never broken 100 SP, but has run her two best SP’s (98 and 95) at 12F on the dirt. She likes the distance and will probably swallow up some horses at the end of this race, but her SP’s are not competitive enough to win. She is out of the grade “C” La Rotonda who has produced two stakes winners and four winners in four foals.

2- A.P. PRINCESS(KY) 19-7-4-3 E Sharp 7/2

ID # 124526 4 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable sharood TOUCH GOLD x KINGMAMBO x A.P. INDY

A.P. Princess(KY) comes in to this race ranked ninth in the division, because of a Grade I win last time out at 11F. She ran a career high 109 SP that day and will be hard to beat if she follows it up with a repeat performance Saturday, but she has only tried 12F once and she ran fifth in an ungraded stakes, (92 SP) so I think that may be unlikely.

3- BAD BLACKBERRY(IRE) 20-7-3-1 E Fricke 7/1

ID # 30886 6 Year Old Homebred Dark Grey Mare

Stable shredder BARATHEA(IRE) x GRAUSTARK x ALLEGED

BAD BLACKBERRY(IRE) is 3-0-1-0 at 12F dirt. She did match her career high with a 102 SP when she ran second in a Grade 2 race at this distance in August. She is still 27^th in the division, but has run out of the money in four of her last five races. I would steer clear of her at the windows on Saturday.

4- POINT BREAK 32-7-9-2 B Barger 9/1

ID # 59132 5 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable lacostra POINT GIVEN x ROAR x DANEHILL

Based on the grade “C” he mare Raw Emotion, who was a six time stakes winner (all dirt routes); Point Break is a very well bred mare. She has tried 12F on the dirt twice in her career with mixed results. In the first attempt she posted a 76 SP and ran ninth in an A-9900nw2x race. In the second attempt she won an ungraded stakes last September and posted the first triple digit SP of her career (100 SP). If she improves slightly on her September effort, she could pull a big upset here.

5- FORTHCOMING 45-15-8-6 R Pollard 5/2

ID # 27796 6 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable whodrwho25 A.P. INDY x SEEKING THE GOLD x SECRETARIAT

She has great breeding, SP’s, and finishes (mainly at 12F on the dirt). She is the morning line favorite for good reason. She is 13-9-3-0 at 12F on the dirt and she ran her two highest SP’s (107 and 105) at this distance. She is suited for the distance and class and her jockey R Pollard is hot right now (he also won the stakes here last week). I think she should win by at least 3 lengths on Saturday.

6- BIG BROWN(KY) 10-3-1-1 W Stowe 8/1

ID # 76470 4 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable flurgen5 STORM CAT x CHARISMATIC x KRIS S.

Big Brown(KY) is based on the grade “C” mare Matfly’s Krissy who did all of her damage in routes on the dirt. Matfly’s Krissy won two stakes at 16F (including one in AL) and one stakes at 11F. Big Brown (KY) has also won an ungraded stakes at 11F. Her last four efforts have all been at 12F dirt, she ran a second in an ungraded stakes (98 SP) and a third in Grade 1 race (103 SP). Those recent performances have propelled her to 28^th in this division. She has run consistently good SP’s recently and will easily finish in the top 5 here on Saturday.

7- RALLY THE QUEEN(KY) 14-6-4-1 A Timpson 15/1

ID # 24676 4 Year Old Homebred Chestnut Mare

Stable queenab KINGMAMBO x STORM CAT x SEATTLE SLEW

You can argue with her breeding, because she is out of the well bred grade “E” mare Rally Cat. Interestingly enough, Rally Cat was much more successful on the turf than on the dirt (all 10 of her wins were on the grass). I would say 15/1 is a pretty good value on this horse, she is 1 for 1 at 12F, winning by 5 lengths in an A-52300nw4x race. Her speed figures are lower than most in this field, but they are consistent. I think she could round out a big trifecta behind the two favorites.

8- LOST WITNESS 27-11-3-4 C Riddle 4/1

ID # 97455 5 Year Old Homebred Light Grey Mare

Stable salamander ROYAL ACADEMY x EL PRADO(IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD

You can not ask for a more consistent runner than Lost Witness; her last nine SP’s have all been between 95 and 99. I think she simply needs to finally crack the triple-digit barrier to win here on Saturday.

9- PAY NO HEED 28-4-3-4 G Blinn 10/1

ID # 101574 5 Year Old Homebred Brown Mare

Stable mav1761 APTITUDE x GO FOR GIN x PLEASANT COLONY

Pay No Heed has only gone 12+ furlongs twice in her career. Last time out, she ran fourth in an ungraded stakes at 14F (90 SP). She also ran fourth in an A-52300NW2t (88 SP) in November 2006. She has been running consistently since a rough trip last February and she posted a career high 99 SP in an A-40500NW4x two races ago in NY at 10F. The distance and class might be a little too much for Pay No Heed to handle on Saturday, but she may be consistent enough to run fourth or fifth.

FINAL ANALYSIS

Another strong and talented field comes to Alabama this week. My selections are a little chalky, but expect a longshot to run at least third or fourth. My top 5 picks are as follows: 5-2-7-6-1. My longshot pick is the #7 Rally the Queen(KY) at 15/1.