California hosts San Valenzuala Breeders Bowl Stakes
In nine runnings, a favorite has won the San Valenzuela Breeders Bowl Stakes a mere two times. Which means the owners of Downplaying Ted and A.P. Precedent are hoping that their charges will buck the trend and somehow take home the winner’s share of the $250k purse this weekend. The Grade 2 on the California main track will be run at 8.5f once again, and has drawn a superb field of horses including one highly-ranked4yo filly continuing in her quest to beat up the boys on the big stage.
The stakes record is held by the legendary Buda With The Slew. He covered the distance in 1:40 flat in 2002, on a sloppy track no less. While none of the thirteen running this year have matched or beaten that time, Automation has come darn close. We just might see the record fall this weekend.
At 5 years of age, Downplaying Ted might just be entering his best raceyear yet. The Touch Gold son just won his first grade in November, the G2 Lewis and Clark at 9f. Ted has only gone 8.5 twice, but he’s got a nice win and a second there, suggesting this race is a good one for him. One thing to watch for is whether the Stakes-trainee gets the lead – he needs to be at or near the front to have a chance, so if he’s more than a couple lengths out he’s toast. Speed figures of 110+ in his last three starts put him among the best of his division. 5-1 cofavorite.
The other cofave is my own horse, A.P. Precedent. He’s a G3 winner at this distance, and won several listed stakes. After a nice second last out in the G3 Gravestone, he should be ready to roll. The big question is whether he can close well enough to win. The A.P. Indy 5yo prefers to close from well back. Hmm, maybe next time I’ll have to set him to run close to try to grab another big win. At this distance, his fastest time is 1:41 flat.
Automation, running out of the Simsters6 stable, most recently won the G3 Gravestone by three-quarters of a length of A.P. Precedent. The wire-to-wire victory was good for a 118SP, just .1 points off the stakes record. At 5 years old, the Kingmambo son just entered stakes company in the last few months, and this will be just his second lifetime graded start. Like Downplaying Ted, Automation likes to be up front, but Auto’s advantage is his ability to start a bit slower if need be yet still make his way to the front by the wire. 6-1 odds are very attractive.
Speightsband is a multiple stakes winner, and once placed in graded company, but is still in search of that elusive graded victory. Stoneface’s 5yo son of Speightstown just posted his lifetime high SP of 109 in the Gravestone last out, but the sixth place occurred while tiring in the stretch, making one wonder if the horse has the goods to win here. If he’s within three lengths of the lead at the first call, he has a fighting chance. 7-1 odds.
At 8-1 is Stellar4’s Ancestral Vision. The 4yo Smarty Jones colt is twice a stakes winner but in two graded tries has yet to finish better than sixth. Is it a class issue? Will his birthday offer the extra oomph he needs to get his big win? In his favor is a preference for closing; with several of the faster horses needing to be closer to the lead, that offers Vision a chance to sneak up late and steal the win.
Muchalucha has All Flags Gold in at 9-1. The 4yo son of Seeking the Gold just completed three very nice turf races, making his return to the main track a bit unusual. Then again, Gold did win a 9f G3 last year, and placed in a Derby Lock Prep, so his dirt credentials are not to be scoffed at. With carefully spaced races and the turf-to-dirt angle, Gold just might be sitting on a fantastic dirt return. Prefers to come from midpack.
The 10-1 Smart Quest gets the rail post for the first time in a year. The 6yo son of Smart Strike is the senior horse in the field at 40 starts. His best graded finish is sixth, making one wonder why Bizor bothered to enter the horse, but one look at his last two starts tells the entire story. Both were solid wins at a mile, one in an open stakes one in the EAAA Inter-Residency Challenge.The open stakes was a deep-closing win, and the other much closer to the pace. That kind of dominating versatility is lovely to see in this kind if horse. Hard to say if he can make it work at 8.5f, but it’ll be interesting to watch him try.
Pye enters BOC Angelic at 10-1. The 4yo Trempolino colt is a perfect 1 for 1 in graded company, but strangely after that win 3 back (in the Hudson Hawk at 8.5f) Pye chose to drop back for a couple of allowances. Nice to see the colt back up where he belongs. He’s gone against elders three time, finishing third twice. Will need to step it up this time, but top SPs of 107 and 108 are good enough to place here.
The third 10-1 horse is Hoshaba’s 4yo colt Highasakight. He’s had a few graded tries, never finishing better than fourth, but the 2007 season-ender signaled that the colt might just be ready to go for big stuff again. It was a DelPenn restricted race, but the High Chaparral youngster beat several top graded-winning elders in fine fashion with a 113SP. The distance should suit him well, but can we expect another huge effort on the heels of that December win?
Ravencraft Castle goes off at 13-1, mostly to his lack of wins since April when he took the G2 Federico Stakes. The 4yo Castledale colt has been off since October, so he’s making his debut against elders at a time when most of his peers have already had a chance to face them at least a couple times. The colt’s generally been closing but coming up short, suggesting trying longer than 9f again might be a good idea in the near future. Bluehaze has to be hoping for a decent run here in preparation for a big effort next out.
Also at 13-1 is the Saint Liam filly All The Riches. Her trainer Flagdown has not been shy about sending her in big races. She finished fourth in the Middle Jewel last May, and notched a third in the Eddie Haskell in August. She’s been closing well at 9f but never quite getting going soon enough to make a difference, suggesting she might need to try 10f again one of these days. Her best SPs are a good 10 points under her competitors’, but this is one of the better fillies running today in terms of her chances against the boys, so don’t count her out.
Sha La La has a tough challenge in this race. Eirann’s 5yo son of Fleet Foot is a stakes winner, albeit in restricted company, but in start #37 will be debuting in grades. But hey, he ran his second highest SP ever last out (a 104) in winning a 8.5f allowance, so his entry isn’t that farfetched. Would like to see him take on open stakes company successfully before trying the bigger stuff, however. 17-1 odds.
The final entrant at 20-1 is Gogo Gizmo. Congaree2’s Midas Eyes colt won a G3 at 8.5f almost a year ago, but hasn’t done a ton since. Sure, he won an allowance in August, and placed third in another allowance in November. Other than that, nada. Might be time to give the grass a try for kicks. While the 4yo can post speed figures in the low 100s, he just can’t be trusted to actually hit the board.
Automation, Downplaying Ted, and A.P. Precedent look the best to me, but watch out for that sneaky filly All The Riches. All Flags Gold looks like he’s a good candidate to steal the race too.