Juveniles concede the field to sophomores for the Air Moe(IRE) Stakes

The juveniles yield the field to their elders this week in Virginia, in the Air Moe(IRE) Stakes. The race is for all three year olds, over ten furlongs of turf. The wet weather has left the track a bit spongy, and it has been rated as good for this week’s races. The purse is $60000, which is on the high side for Virginia stakes runs. Four colts have taken up the challenge, and the oddsmakers have divided the field down the middle. Two favorites are going off at 3/5 odds. The other two have been written off as also rans, though this is Virginia and there is also an off track to consider. As our racers have proven over and over, you can’t write off anyone.

PP 1) Incinerator Sired by Kingmambo, Trained by cheapo. Incinerator is the first of the two favorites in this race. He takes a step back down in class after making his last two runs at Grade I level. He has posted a record of 3-1-1-0-0 in his sophomore season, including two stakes wins, in eight runs. He comes off a third place finish in a full field Grade I in his last outing, defying the 24/1 odds assigned to him by the oddsmakers. Turf is his preferred surface, with his only dirt run being a sloppy track disaster at the end of his two year old season. He is at his best distance range here, with his best speed numbers coming in this range. He has also shown the stamina to post decent numbers out to 12 furlongs. He runs as a leader/stalker, and must be tight on the lead to have success, showing very little inclination to close if he breaks too slowly from the gate. He can be vunerable to a good closer, but he has the speed and stamina to make it tough to catch him. He’s posted the best speeds in the field, and at this distance, he should be right in the mix at the wire.

PP 2) Bluff The Bride Sired by Pine Bluff, Trained by acote2. Bluff The Bride started his career as a three year old, with no two year old starts. He has a 2-1-1-0-1 record this year, mostly at claim and CPU allowance level. He comes off a career best 81 speed in his last outing, and open Claim-7500 where he finished a hard closing second place. His speeds have been markedly better on turf, though he will still have his work cut out for him to compete here. He is still trying to lock in a running style, with one win coming wire to wire, and the other closing from midpack. Both ways, he has shown flashes of talent, but other times has been less than stellar. His best runs have been his last two starts, which were his longest to date, at nine furlongs. The distance here could very well suit him. His trainer was obviously licking his/her chops at the short field in this one. He is going to need the performance of a lifetime to be a factor here.

PP 3) Giant’s Son(IRE) Sired by Giant’s Causeway(IRE), Trained by lrisquez. Giant’s Son(IRE) is the longshot in this one, going off a 31/1 odds. He is another that has started his career as a three year old. He is 1-0-1-2-2 in nine starts this season, mostly at allowance level, with a couple stakes runs. His last start he finished a long out fifth place in an A2n in Utah. His career best speed was an 82.1 in an open allowance early this year. His speeds are fairly close on either surface, not evidencing a marked preference for either surface. This race is going to be a bit on the long side for him, with eight furlongs looking to be at about the outside of his distance range. He would probably like something a good deal shorter than what he is looking at here. He is a fast starter, with his only victory coming wire to wire. He is unlikely to be able to gain that early lead in this one. Unless he has a lot more than he has been showing this year, look for him to pack this one in by the halfway mark.

PP 4) King’s Gift(IRE) Sired by Generous(IRE), Trained by tatty2. King’s Gift(IRE) is the co-favorite in this field, and has displayed some of the most consistent speeds here. He sports a 3-2-3-0-0 record in eight starts this year. He steps back up to stakes level after a third place finish in a 12 furlong dirt allowance in his last outing. This will be his first turf start since the middle of his two year old season. His best speed is a 99.2 at nine and a half furlongs on dirt early this year. His speed with his switch to dirt last year is considerably increased, and that may not bode well for him, especially with the off track here in his return to turf. On the other side of the coin, the distance suits him quite well here, and he has more than enough stamina to be a real factor here. He has been posting low to mid 90s at twelve furlongs on dirt. His running style is to close from just off the pace, letting the early speed tire, then picking them off in the second half. The combination of turf and the off track will probably give him a bit more to make up than he prefers, but with his stamina, he should be able to at least make a race out of this one.