On the Fence
A full field of 14 has shown up for one of the first graded races of the year for Derby hopefuls. These sophomore colts will be running 8.5 furlongs on the dirt in this Grade III affair for a purse of $150,000.
1 HENRY CLAY 8/1 Gipper8
Bottom line: I need to see this colt do more before I can back him in a graded race. Beautifully-bred son of Indy is 2-for-2, but winning a maiden and an allowance with speed figures in the 80s doesn’t tell me much about what he can do here. He won both those races handily, so he certainly could be a graded-caliber colt, but there’s not enough evidence yet to make any predictions.
2 PYRALIS 8/1 Kbsweet
You’d think the colt who finished second in the BB Juvie would earn more respect at the windows, but apparently you’d be wrong. The case for him is that he has been off the board in a graded race only once, and he has competed in some of the toughest races around. The case against him is that his last race was truly terrible and he’s been off seven weeks since then. I expect him to run a tough race, but he could need a tune-up after that last race. Excellent shot at hitting the board, but may not quite have it in him to win this time around.
3 WILD TO THE TOUCH 8/1 Fortywalt
This guy’s record is all over the place, from a graded win, to an eighth place in his most recent outing. He’s only routed once, running a weak sixth. On the one hand, that wasn’t a good race; on the other, his pedigree says a mile should be no problem. He’s not Mr. Consistent, but he’s quite capable of hitting the board in a graded race. Will he do it this time? Really hard to say. Just wait and watch on this one!
4 SARDINI 5/1 Punter41
Exploded onto the scene by winning the Grade I Movieland Futurity in his first graded attempt last time out. He’s had only one false step in his seven outings – a fifth place finish in a residency stakes. Toss that minor clunker, and he’s a brilliant young horse who’s been improving as he stretches out. He’ll have a very good jockey to guide him; watch for this guy to stalk the early pace and make his move in the stretch. One to keep an eye on as the spring progresses.
5 JOE SHMURPHY 13/1 Hannibal
Solid Johar colt has hit the board in six of eight starts, but this is a big step up for him. He consistently posts speed figures in the mid 80s, which isn’t going to come close to getting the job done here. A useful, consistent guy who’s shown no sign as yet that he’s up to this kind of field.
6 FASTEST PLUMBER 12/1 Wolves
This son of Jump Start really perked up in his first route attempt last time out, earning his first 90+ speed figure. But an easy win in a five-horse allowance doesn’t really tell us much about what he can do against a graded field. If he can continue to improve, he’ll have a shot at the board, but this is such a big step up he may not be quite ready to excel this weekend. He’ll try to pour on the speed early and steal it from the front.
7 FINS 10/1 Parrothead
Sky Mesa colt has lost a ton of steam late in his recent races, despite finishing respectably and posting good speed numbers. Might be one who could benefit from being held back just a bit. This will be his first graded race, and he’s finished no better than third in two overnight stakes, so don’t expect him to win this one. Still, he’s fast enough to be very much in contention for a paycheck. Those looking for exotic bets should take a closer look.
8 ZABEEL WARRIOR 14/1 Hewett
14/1 is a handsome price for a grade I winner with the third-highest speed figure to date in the field. Winner of the Grade I Sparkling Wine flopped last time out, but that was on an off track. Ig nore it. The bigger question is whether that Grade I win was a fluke or a sign of things to come; it was certainly his best race so far by a lot. Given that he’s won a Grade I and has been off the board only once (and that one on an off track), I’d say this guy is a heckuva bargain. Though he wouldn’t deserve to be the favorite, I won’t be a bit surprised if he runs quite well.
9 RED BUDA 12/1 Joanneb
Joanneb’s newcomer has only three starts under his belt, but they’ve been awfully nice runs. The son of Awesome Again debuted with a second place, then won broke his maiden easily and followed up with an overnight stakes win. His numbers are good, but those two wins were against very small fields. It’s reasonable for his trainer to try him here, but it’s very difficult to predict whether he’s going to be able to handle a big, tough field. We’ll know a lot more about this guy after this race.
10 EXBOR 23/1 Connor
This Borrego colt has never been worse than second in five attempts, including two overnight stakes against small fields. He’s taking a big step up here and is stretching out to two turns for the first time. He’s been improving nicely as he gains experience, but this is a big step up. He’ll need to continue improving and he’ll need to like two turns. Doesn’t look like a horse who’ll want to go real long, but he handled 7.5 furlongs just fine. Has a decent shot at earning a paycheck this weekend.
11 RIVERBENDER 8/1 Lankajoe2
Son of Borrego has been improving steadily throughout his 8 starts and has been off the board only once. The bad news is, that one misstep was in his only graded attempt so far, where he finished fifth. Still, fifth earns a paycheck and is pretty respectable for a first shot at the big time. If he can improve off that, he’ll be in good shape here. He’ll need to continue his race-to-race improvement, but that’s certainly a possibility. Watch for him to come flying late.
12 PERMITTED 29/1 Cjt3
One of the few colts who looks to be thoroughly out of his depth here. His record of 2 wins from seven starts is respectable enough, but he hasn’t shown anywhere near the speed he’d need to compete in this field. A perfectly nice, useful horse who would be better off in another race.
13 PLAYOFFS 9/1 2totango
Royally-bred A.P. Indy colt started off with a bang, winning a MSW and then an overnight stakes easily. Very understandably, he next headed to a graded race, where he ran a dismal 13th. There’s nothing wrong with trying him in another graded field, but I’d hesitate to back him off that flop. See how he does this weekend and if he performs well, keep an eye on him this spring.
14 RHYMENOCEROUS 8/1 Sam812218
Sam’s colt is a very promising newcomer who has won 3 of his four starts. Starting off with a mediocre debut, he won his second race handily, then won an allowance and an overnight stakes. He’s improving dramatically with each start and has the second-highest speed figure in the field. While it’s impossible to know for sure how he’ll perform in a graded race, he is really looking impressive so far. Keep a close watch on this Forestry colt and don’t be surprised if he makes some noise on the road to the Derby.