Machu Picchu Too Tough To Call ?
Machu Picchu
4 yr olds and up 8 Furlongs on the Turf
Let’s have a look at the field
STREET STAY
MINNESOTA TESTBARN
Waiting Stables
Jockey T Ace
Street Stay, so far this 2020 campaign, seems to be struggling somewhat to find his form of last year, and his results have shown it, as he has failed to find the top prize, He has been badly beaten in some of those races. Starting off the year in the G1 Kegusus Upper Deck, he stalked the early pace and seemed to be in good position to pounce, but when the push came, he faded with no answer.
In The G2 Double M Memorial, he tried a new tactic, taking an aggressive lead from the gate. He ran an imppressive 119 SP that day, but
another stole his glory at the wire.
Without much rest, waiting stables decided to capitilize on his latest good form, and popped him into a G3. Less than a month later. Interestingly enough, the winner of the G2 Double M ,also was entered in this race ,and the short amount of time between both races appears to have been a factor, as neither did anything in this race. You can say they just came Unglued !
After a much needed 2 month layoff, he entered the G3 Texas Turf, where he met up with another in this race, Blind Trustee, and although he did put that one away, Street Stay only managed a distant third in an ok 110 sp.
He has since taken another layoff to freshen, and did have a nice breeze to an easy win in a HOT over CPU horses.
I have noticed that although I think the jockey is a very good one, the horse just may not like the jockey.
If he runs to his G2 run, he has a shot to be on the board, but I am not keen on his recent patterns.
ELHMAS
UNIVERSAL RACING CLUB
Newmarket Stables
Jockey D Matas
Coming ,Coming, Coming,
this horse is always coming and may just be the NOW HORSE
Lightly raced in his 2020 campaign but still impressed by his will to make you work for it
Coming off a 5 month layoff, he was entered into a G3 Marcy’s Fort by the newmarket stables and bombed a 116 first out but came up just short for the payday to another who ran his eyeballs out.
In his next, and also his latest back in June, in the G1Queen Sam, he would run up against many of the horses he is running against in the Muchu Picchu, and proved that he is definitely the one to watch out for, winning going away, whille keeping the highly regarded Yo Bo at bay
Elhmas is fresh and consistent,and definitely the NOW HORSE.
TOP CONTENDER
POLL QUESTION
EAST WEST CONNECTION
Rubiano12 Stables
Jockey T Loesch
Poll Position has yet to run at this level, and his last attempt anything close , was last season in The G2 Central Park Stakes and this did not go well at all.
This year though is a bit of a different story. He has been consistent in his scores down in a more tolerant levels for his speed type, and even dappered in the Gaded levels when in the G3 Diolated Stakes and finished quite well, to be on the board , which I am sure not only suprized the ownership, but made them quite happy with the effort. He ran a career best that day 114 SP an I am sure they were estatic with the progress forward the colt had made.
Unfortunately for this one it looks like the dream was short lived when entered right back in the G3 Hess Mile reality settled in and he was near the bottom of the field this day running a more sober 101. That day he also met another Muchu Picchu entry, in Bite Sized Banana ,who did do decisively better.
Every Horse has a shot, but not liking this ones chances
YO BO
EMPIRE STATE RACING
Oilspill Stables
Jockey H Harzheim
Yo Bo is no stranger the Graded Levels, and in fact has banked more than 2 Million dollars lifetime for the Oilspill stables.
Yo Bo seems to be the type that relys on a super fast pace, and a super fast speed breakdown on the front end, as he just loves picking up the pieces.
He has already ran 3 G1’s ,and a G2, in this seasons campaign which does make him a fairly busy dude. He has run against many of the Muchu Picchu entries , and beaten most of them, so he is a sure bet to be in the mix somewwhere up front. You know he is coming.
In the G1 Road Kill Mile, Yo Bo had the plan working when he made his move from way back, and just missed getting the leader, who held on the whole race, only to be beaten by another, who came from even further back than YO BO, keeping YO BO in third spot.
In the G1 Sydney Mile, he once again used his deadly closing power, but again was beaten by one who made his move just a little earlier to settle for second. That winner was We Look Hard, another in the Muchu Picchu
Next was the G1 Queen Sam. Many in here also in the Michu Picchu and as is the norm for Yo Bo finishing 2nd just barely , coming from way out, and putting We Look Hard behind him this time, only to have Elhmas steal the pot.
Finally in his last, the G2 Sunny Mile, oilspill stables made a jockey change, and he did not seem as keen, and was somewhat disinterested, coming from behind, but at a more temperate pace finishing 4th in a much slower time. Possibly fatigue setting in.
For the Michu Picchu Yo Bo has retained his jockey pal H Harzheim. Yo Bo is sired by personal favorite Awesome Again who I can say, I have won more money on in real life betting, then any other horse in all my years.
So The Question is Can This Horse Be AWESOME AGAIN?
HAACK’S ARROGATE
LATINOS DEL MUNDO
Oahaack Stables
Jockey B Orazio
The 5 Million Dollar Horse Is Back !!! Maybe
Haack’s Arrogate seems to be having a little bit of a tough go of it regaining his old form from the past ,and well it might just be that he has seen his best days. Having said this he is still a very dangerous horse just waiting to capitilize on your bad day.
We will do a bit of a 2020 recap on him.
He has hit the board 3 of the four races, but all scores were in allowance level, where he seems to be puttering around more often now, and the one G1 event he stuck his nose in ,did go well at all, staying near the rear,with the highly regarded Mowbray running near the top most of the race.
I was gonna go into a whole thing on this horse , but decided I could not do him the justice he deserves.
Best to put it this way.
He can do it, has done it, and still might be able to. End of story
STELLA LUMINIOSA
MIDAS
Stormboot Stables
Jockey D Evans
Stormboot Stables may have a firecracker here. If either of his last two races are indication, then the whole field best beware.
Have you been Arazied lately ? Ask Bertrando what that might feel like .
Horses that do what Stella Luminosa has done in his last two, is what makes me fall in love with horses. Anyone can take a lead and never look at the pack, but to literally run by them as if they were not moving at all has got to be the ultimate in intimidation.
Looking at his last 4 in which he has won 3 and was 5th , he was a combined average of roughly 9 lengths out at the 3rd call. Even in the race where he finished virtually tied for fourth, he picked up crazy lengths in the stretch to get as close as he was . His sp times have improved by 10 or better as well in his last two romps, and this definitely puts him in the talk..
This is my pick for this race.
OVIEDO
HISPANO PARLENTE
Xpletives3 Stables
Jockey P Harzheim
If the Xpletives3 stables were looking to help their colt with its endurance issues, then where he raced last makes sense, but only if K Ledwith , who is a good jockey, was given the instructions to just go for the run and not push the colt. He was literally annihilated as were most in that race in which he went off as the heavy favorite. Back to this race in which he drops to a more likeble distance will definitely be a big helper.
He has not run a graded race this year, but he did however run a G3 back last September in which he finished a movig 4th and was only out by 3 lengths running a decent 116 sp.
He also ran a stakes race right after posting the same sp with a win, in which he was opening significantly near the end of the race. He did go off as the skight favorite in that one.
His races of late have been bantering around in the allowance companieswith not so grreeat resullts.
Oviedo probably is not up to speed with these ones right now, but I will tell you this if he comes out and smokes the field, I am going to change my training style completely.
PIRATE DANCE
NORTHWEST RACING CIRCUIT
Udoways Stables
Jockey C Winter
Pirate Dance so far in the 2020 campaign has decided to run longer distances, and in his two 10 plus furlongs, things have not gone well, finishing well out of the money both times.
In the two allowance races squished in between at distances more to his liking, he was a player, running decent numbers, but never quite getting the top prize coveted.
In the G1 Movieland Turf he got off well, and mid packed well watching the front end get well away from him. He seemed to have some show in him picking up multiple spots late, but really they were just those who were tiring.
This was his first attemt at the graded levels, and I would think it turned out better than he probably thought , so why not try again.?
This lot is much much tougher.
Top 8 here would be a real good show for him
MOWBRAY
GR SIMSTERS
Liam28 Stables
Jockey J Seldon
Supersaver colt, Mowbray, has been a star for a couple of years now, and shows no signs of giving it up. He epitimizes the terminology “ Has a bullsye on his back “. Mowbray loves to run on the lead, and is not always an easy one to pick up late .
In the G3 Road Rash the plan was simple….Take the lead and never look back, which he did flawlessly, winning with a 119 sp cruising into the wire.
In his next he tried the G1 Sand Castle Fee Duty, and took off with a large lead, seemed to be cruising there as well, only to have another catch him right at the wire. He did run a spendid 121 sp that day.
In his last he was once again in the G1 Woody Ford. Took off for the lead, but another , Unglued would not allow that to happen, and the two duoed themselves right out of the big prize, as Unglued surcumbed big, and although Mowbray finished in second this day, there were many coming his way, and fast, and two more strides probably sees him no better than fifth. He still ran a 116 sp ,but I can see he has not really had a break for awhile. This could be an issue.
Of course he is my choice to finish top 2, but would not be surprised to see a very bad race by him.
HOLY CORNHOLIO
ALL STARS RACING
Manzarek Stables
Jockey A Jolly
On early look into the racing past of Holy Cornolio, one would probably come under the impression that he is just a notch or so under this lot. He has seen plenty of action against many in here, and has never faired well, generally well behind them.
On second look though however, he may also just be an unfortunate soul who seems to get to race against these at the wrong times, and what I mean by this his sp ratings are good but his race results are not. Lots of ways you can determine this, but will let the results speak for themselves.
In ther G1 Locksmith he had everything go right for him. Only one horse took the lead and faltered badly, no one coming from behind with a rally, and a real good 117 sp to help win the big prize.
In the G1 Queeen Sam he had no chance, everything he could not handle was there against him, including 5 super fast colts. and one very good super closer, and although he to was making moves towards the leaders in the end, he actually was just keeping pace with those who were on the lead originally and were getting sniped. That combined with a 111sp real cooked him.
Maybe hits top 8 on best
BITE SIZED BANANA
ELITE RACING CLUB
Jbcri24 Stables
Jockey J Sands
This 5 year colt, sired by Cat Thief, has been very consistent in his runs at all levell, and generally will give you something to yell about down in stretch.
In The G3 Hess Mile he had his worse result since 2018 while finishing 5th by only 2 lengths, closing while 3 other closers in that race also made good, beating him out at the wire.
The race before that the G3 Bad Things Mile he ran even stronger, and finished with the big win, running a 117 sp coming from well back, which certainly makes him one to contend with in here.
He steps up in class here, but he can be a factor, problem is with the super closers ,and front runners in this tilt, and many very consistent horses, maintaining a top 5 will be very hard, but has a chance for the board as well.
WE LOOK HARD
BLAZING SADDLES
Eminc6 Stables
Jockey R Harzheim
I am calling this horse a top 3 in this race regardless of how it happens which is high praise for the diligence this horse brings. We Look Hard is 14 for 16 lifetine on the turf and his only real blemish was in the G1 The Suffix coming at the same distance as this one where he was 11th and never a player in that one way back in July 2019. Since then this horse has been no worse than third.
He has run only 3 times this season and in the G2 Al Tahiti he was every much the one stalking the pace for much of the race before pulling away in the stretch to win wasily. He ran a 119sp that day
In his second to last the G1 Sydney Mile he did nuch the same coming from just a little further back but scoring just the same holding off Yo Bo and leaving Blanco Gold well behind.
IN the Queen Mile there were a few in there which will also be here and he put in a gallant effort finishing third behind once again close behind closer Yo Bo and eventual winner Elhmas
Hard to not like this horses chances with a little bit of luck.
BLIND TRUSTEE
HOOSIERS RACING
Yykewlsavaged24 Stable
Jockey J Wilson
Hoosiers sends out a strange one in here, with his unpredictabilty on how he may try to run.
Blind Trustee at the beginning of the campaign for 2020 came out flying with a smashing win in a stakes Prince Bold Turf Route running 9 and half, stalking the lead, and never looking back. He ran an impressive 115 sp that day and if you consider his last two races of last year were both in the 70’s this was remarkable !
He once again tried staked company in the Dom Tendancies Turf where for whatever reason he just was not ablo keep up to any of the front runners, which discouraged him terribly, and as he started droppeng back, the lead collapsed, and the closers took over.
A learning curve perhaps.
He then gave himself a jump in class trying the G3 Texas Turf, but once again could not get it going, and the class showed as he faded.
He still ran his steady 106 that day.
In his last the Local Championshops Stakes , he went for the gusto and took the early lead ,and never looked back, even when being contested, which is an encouraging sign. He also was lucky there were no closers in the race, and an improved 108 helped with the win.
Unfortunately I just can’t see him getting away from the bottom 3 in this one, even with his best.
( Sorry Hoosiers….my res representative )
BLANCO GOLD
ONLY STAYERS
Tarton9 Stables
Jockey MJ Kelly
Blanco Gold started off the 2020 campaign with a nice G2 win in the Gas Station Mile. He kept close to the early pace, and when asked for more, he ignited to get the score. He ran a nice 117sp, which he will need to do this race to have any chance against the likes of these.
He decided to drop back down to the G3 Intercontinental Trophy, and deployed his usual style finishing second this time to a horse, Gary The Elf, whom he had beaten previously.
His 113 may have been the cause for the loss, but a good run just the same.
He then decided to try his luck in the G1’s, both the Sydney Mile and The Queen Mile where he finished 8th repectfully as I figured he might anyhow.
This one he is in now is even tougher, and he will need to be at his very best to get a top 8.
Don’t be discouraged by this though….just being here is a victory in itself !
Machu Picchu Predictions
Stella Luminosa
We Look Hard
Yo Bo
Mowray
Elhmas
Bite Sized Banana
Haack’s Arrogate
Holy Cornholio
Blanco Gold
Pirate Dance
Street Stay
Blind Trustee
Ovieda
Poll Question