Glorious Sunset Gives EAAA Betting Edge

The racing challenge continues here in Ireland with race 14, the EAAA Division Inter Residency Challenge for three year old mile turfers.

We’ll take a look at the market, before working our way down through the betting order

9/2 – Glorious Sunset

5/1 – Septic Squall, Night Signal

6/1 – Double Malted

7/1 – Hit Sugaya

8/1 – Ten Stone Five

9/1 – Kela Indy

12/1 – Zedital

13/1 – Spirit Seeker

14/1 – Alpine Wonder

21/1 – BPB Markane

65/1 – Outta Ransom

9/2 – Glorious Sunset – # 12 – (EAAA) – He’s earned the top spot in the early market with half a dozen impressive, and improving, performances. He’s never gone home from the track without a cheque, and although he’s yet to win at black type level, he’s run second and third in ungraded stakes races at each of his last two outings. From the beginning, each run, with just one exception, has shown an increase in speed ratings, so it’s only natural to allow for yet another personal best here. His route record stands at 1-1-1 from 3, a point in his favour, with several of his opponents attempting the mile for the first time. A son of top rate sire Mineshaft, he’s the first foal of the beautifully bred Misty Sunset (Danzig / Alydar), a lightly raced winner of three from fourteen, who also raced exclusively in the londoner colours. Drawing wide has been of no consequence in a couple of previous races, and his top jockey will probably elect to settle Glorious Sunset midfield, saving the best for last.

5/1 – Septic Squall – # 6 – (Qld) – This colt is no stranger to quality opposition, having bypassed the usual maiden start, winning an allowance first time out, then progressing to black type contests, where he’s proven more than capable in seven subsequent starts. The highlights of his career include an ungraded stakes win, second in the Coventry Stakes-G3 and third in the Bad Deal Stakes-G3. From his eight starts, he’s failed to finish on the podium just twice, both in Graded company, but that includes a sixth in on World Cup day when beaten just two and a half lengths in a Grade 1 event. Septic Squall is a son of Septieme Ceil from Bart’s Son (Summer Squall / Alleged), the strangely named mare twice victorious in stakes races from a brief career of just eight starts. Of some concern is the colt’s most recent outing, when he failed to run out the trip at his first route attempt. He’s likely to settle just beyond midfield, and sozzled will be waiting expectantly for the late finish.

5/1 – Night Signal – # 11 – (Qld) – A veteran of nine starts as a juvenile, he’s never gone home empty handed, and lines up for this off an ideal preparation, having tasted black type victory at his most recent outing, when most convincing over the eight and a half. The 93 speed rating he posted seven weeks ago is the highest number on the form guide, and with that speed figure scored over these conditions, he’s perhaps the runner which other trainers will be using as their benchmark. It’s only early in his three year old campaign, but he has been given every opportunity to establish him as an allowance runner before retuning him to the higher competition. He races in stakes company for just the fourth time this week, have run third and first at his two recent starts. Night Signal is a son of Night Shift, from Storm Signal (Lear Fan / Seeking the Gold), the first foal of a canismajor ‘exclusive’ winner of four from eighteen. Likely to settle back in the field, and with a top hoop aboard, connections can confidently expect a big finish.

6/1 – Double Malted – # 5 – (EAAA) – A more than smart young colt with an excellent record to date, this fellow boasts three wins and three seconds from seven starts, with the only minor glitch coming on World Cup Day when he was outpointed by a very smart Grade 1 field. The trainer is not afraid to mix his racing classes, as, perhaps unconventionally; he comes into this off a morale boosting allowance win, after having tasted victory in the Grade 3 Coventry Steaks at just his third career run. That may well prove to be a training master stroke from demon123, as the 1.36.6 he ran that that day is equal fastest mile winning time of all of today’s contenders, matched only by Ten Stone Five. Double Malted is a scratchbred son of Elvstroem / Caerleon / Manila. He’s proven himself competent at allowance, ungraded and graded level and has every chance of keeping his impressive one-two record intact. He won’t be far off the pace in the early running, and he’s done more than enough to justify the confidence of connections.

7/1 – Hitsugaya – # 4 – (Ireland) – The first in the betting of the unknown quantities. He hasn’t done enough in his three runs to instill fear into his opponents, but he’s done more than enough to command their respect, having finished on the podium at each outing, and showing substantial improvement in speed ratings every time he steps onto the track. While his two stakes runs have been a tad disappointing at first glance, third of four and beaten in a field of six, the actual runs point to this race being more suitable. In both those stakes runs he was doing his best work towards the finish, and appeared to be screaming out for more distance. He gets only half a furlong more this week, but that may be enough, and if it’s not, he’ll only benefit as the races get longer. A son of War Front, he’s from Cherokee Sea (Seattle Slew / Medieval Man) a winner of eight minor races in a career of forty runs. Hitsugaya is her fourth foal and the pride of the fleet already, as the other three were all consigned to the claiming ranks. daedalus will expect to see him languishing rearwards early and working home when it counts, and although he still has questions to answer, I expect to read of him frequently in the not too distant future.

8/1 – Ten Stone Five – # 8 – (Ireland) – This colt more than underscores the depth and equality in this field. As already mentioned in the review of Double Malted, these two runners share the fastest time for a winning effort over the mile.  You can’t ask for more than that when lining up form over the same trip, and yet there are five runners ahead of him in the betting. There are a number of concerns with him however, and perhaps these have influenced the oddsmakers. He’s won just twice, in maiden and allowance fields, and lines up here against opponents with solid Graded class form. The other question mark creates both the potential and the concern for analysts of this race. He ran that smart time on an affected track. We know that most horses will go faster on a firm surface, but that some save their best for the wet. If he fits the former category, he’s a second to none chance here, but if he’s a dead set wet tracker, he may well be run down easily in this. Ten Stone Five is by the rarely used, inexpensive sire Lorofino from Damage Control (Pulpit / Danzig) a six figure earning winner of four from forty one, and dam of one earlier runner, a stakeswinner by Rahy. He’s the likely leader here and eirann will be hoping he can dig deep enough to bring glory to his home track.

9/1 – Kela Indy – # 9 – (Qld) – With ten juvenile starts from last season, this colt lines up with the most experience of the runners in this race. It’s probably fair to say he was plodding for his first half dozen runs, before taking that next step. His four most recent runs have seen him develop into a solid stakes quality runner. Four starts back he won an owner restricted allowance against nineteen opponents, quickly to follow it up with another, over the mile he faces this week, in the impressive time of 1.37.0. Elevated to stakes racing, albeit in small fields, he recorded a third and, most recently, a second placing at this level. A son of the unheralded Kela, from A.P. You (A.P. Indy / Youth), his dam won four minor races from 33. Kela Indy is her fifth offspring, and the first to earn black type. Likely to settle two or three lengths off the pace, he’ll need a significant personal best to be a winning chance, but he’s answering the challenges as they are presented by graywolf6 and is not without a chance.

12/1 – Zedital – # 2 – (Alpine) – Another who makes handicapping this race almost impossible, this colt would ordinarily been seen to be jumping too high, too soon. However, his debut run was so impressive it is impossible to dismiss him as a genuine threat here. He beat a couple of black type performers in his only run to date, and won with such authority that there was clearly plenty in the tank which was not called upon. Very nicely bred, he’s by Pivotal from Fear Seeker (Zeditave / Seeking The Gold), a stakeswinner with seven black type podium finishes and a bank account in excess of $400k. The dam was also owned and trained by hellafied, and although I’m not game to tip a second starter against proven Graded class opponents, I’m not brave (or silly) enough to suggest that Zedital cannot run a monster of a race

13/1 – Spirit Seeker – # 3 – (Ireland) – it’s a big ask to expect a last start maiden winner to be competitive in a field boasting several runners with Graded credentials, but this colt has looked good in his three runs, winning one with seconds at the other two, and he also does look as though he’ll appreciate the extra half furlong. His sire, Songline, has worked well in the sim, while the remains of the scratch breeding, Mill Reef and Roberto is absolute top quality turf route, boding well for this first attempt over the longer trip. ebbe will be expecting Spirit Seeker to race handy, two or three lengths off the lead, before working home late. He’s taking a substantial leap by tackling this event, but his solid, improving formline combined with unknown potential adds yet another element of mystery to this exciting race.

14/1 – Alpine Wonder – # 10 – (Alpine) – The only filly lining up for this event, her formline is difficult to assess, given that her entire career of eight runs has been conducted in the somewhat sheltered environment of Alpine Turf Club restricted events. That’s the question mark. The other side of the coin is that the opposition in those events is generally of a high quality nature, and she’s won five of the eight, with seconds in each of the other three. Her last start 1.37.5 over this trip won’t be enough to get her home ahead of her more fancied opposition, but as she’s still on the improve, she wont have to improve by much to put herself into a position to add value to the exotic bets. Alpine Wonder is a daughter of premier sire Sadler’s Wells, from La Troubadour (Exploit / Conquistador Ceilo), a winner of 4 from 22 for this filly’s owner trainer stlcards. She’ll settle beyond midfield, with a real chance of unloading her customary finish against this stronger field.

21/1 – BPB Markane  – # 1 – (EAAA) – Connections must be astounded at the lack of respect being shown to this unbeaten colt. What more does he need to do? He’s three from three! He’s won at stakes level (albeit against a minimum sized field) and he is improving at a rate which signifies that there’s still plenty more improvement in the tank. OK, so he’s never tried the mile. But he’s finishing off his races in a manner which makes it obvious that it won’t cause a problem. His breeding is unfashionable (Markane / Royal Anthem / Touching Wood), but try a telling the horse he should go slower because the other breeders spent more on their animals. bpboost3 and stable followers are sure to put substantial wagers on BPB Markane, simply because, no matter what he hasn’t done, he’s one of only two in the race who’ve never been beaten. This is not a good race to bet in, but for those who must, this colt is far and away the best value runner.

65/1 – Outta Ransom – # 7 – (Alpine) – Sadly, there is a phrase which jumps to mind on checking the form of this colt. Making up the numbers. Looking for positives, he does boast a second placing in an ungraded stakes just two starts back, but that was in a slowly run race and in a small field. Every other runner can lay some sort of claim to his or her chances in the race, but, search as I may, I can’t mount any sort of argument for this one.  Outta Ransom is a son of Hansome Ransom from Down and Outz (Blackfriars / Big Burn).  His dam won one from seventeen, and as a stakes placed runner, this hawkzbarn owned and trained colt has exceeded mum’s achievements. Unfortunately I can’t see him adding any more glory this week.

The Challenge: The market has this looking like a competition between EAAA and Queensland, with each of the residencies represented twice in the first four fancies in the betting. Ireland then fills fifth and sixth spots in the morning line, with Alpine first appearing at number eight.

Finding a winner : This race is almost impossible to handicap, with virtually every runner having some sort of chance, and most of the field having questions to answer. Favourite Glorious Sunset has never won a black type race, a statistic shared with Ten Stone Five and Kela Indy. Septic Squall failed at his only route run, Hitsugaya tries the trip for the first time, Zedital lines up for just the second time, Spirit Seeker makes a huge jump, Alpine Wonder has led a sheltered life and Outta Ransom hasn’t done enough. That leaves Night Signal, Double Malted and BPB Markane. Greedily searching for value in a very tough race, I’m going to reverse the order, so it’s:

First – BPB Markane – EAAA

Second – Double Malted – EAAA

Third – Night Signal – Queensland