Special field in the G1 Topicount

When you look at Bones’ record, you wonder what he might have accomplished had he started running at a 2 or 3yo. The horse debuted just over a year ago at the grand old age of 4. After posting seconds on turf and off dirt, he met the main track and has not looked back, vaulting up to grades very quickly. H took the G2 Brooke Lynn and nearly stole the CA Classic with a hard closing run. Unlike nearly every other horse here he did not go in the Breeders Bowl, but he did notch a G3 last out in fine fashion. The 115 he earned in the Queen of the County is his best ever and may signal he’s ready to earn his first G1.

It’s rare to have the #1-ranked horses from multiple divisions in the same race, but we get that here with the presence of both Intenttodistribute and Ermington Pegusus. Intent actually has the rare distinction of being one of the few horses to ever beat SuperPeg during his reign of greatness. She took on the boys in the G1 Movieland Shiny Cup and came out top mare, wiring the field by a half-length. Her top speed isn’t up to the best of the boys, but she’s shown she can handle the challenge, and her natural speed must be considered a strong threat. Downside is her lack of wins since that Movieland shocker – has she started her career downslide?

The Gangster is the newest horse in this field to the graded scene with just four stakes (three of those grades) on his record. He wowed in his stakes debut with a huge 110, then settled for fourth in his graded debut (the Travelers). Second try was the charm as the LA Derby was Gangster’s G1 triumph. He rolled to a 2-length win over A Vow To Be A Slew. The colt must have needed some time off as he took a 2-month break and came back for the G2 Lewis & Clark, but the return trip was lackluster, as he failed to hit the board for the first time since March. He should be in better shape this time around. Another horse that likes to come from way back.

After struggling through the first half of the year, the old boy finally relearned how to win in Smackdown in July with that huge 118SP courtesy of a major challenge by Awegustus. A second straight Breeders Bowl Classic win put him within striking distance of breaking the all-time sim earnings record held by the legendary Joe Cayenne. Solar Song needs a fourth or better to hit the mark in this race. He ran in the Topicount Special back in 2005, but had to settle for third. Would thrill me to get this win, but he won’t have an easy time of it.

While many in this field have gone the conservative route since the Breeders Bowl by taking the time off, this horse comes in with two races since the big dance. From those two starts he’s got two lovely wins at 10.5f , each earning a 104SP. Risk can often be counted on to play a factor in graded races, but he rarely wins. Still, 8 graded placings (including seconds in the Jockey Guild Gold Cup and Gotta Fix The Sprinklers) is pretty darn good. Hard to imagine him stepping up for the win, but don’t count Risk sneaking in a placing.

SuperPeg looked a cinch to round out 2007 undefeated until he ran into Intenttodistribute in The Movieland Shiny. Still, the half-length loss was no great shame, and he trained well heading to the CA Classic. Inexplicably he ran third, running well but missing that special spark. The trainer was completely unfazed and sent the prize colt on to the Sim World Cup, where he returned to the winner’s circle with a dazzling 2-length score (for that impressive 118SP) over Passing Stone. It certainly put him in great position to avenge his 2006 Breeders Bowl loss, but alas, the colt got moving way too late to be effective and finished out of the money for the first time since July 2006. He’s been resting since October and rumor has it SuperPeg is back and ready to close out the year with a big race.

Passing Stone has developed form a wunderkind of the young 3yo crew into a mature and polished classic division contender. He took the G1 Travelers in fine style, nearly pulled off the Sim World Cup upset in his first start against elders, and was fourth in the fastest running of the Breeders Bowl Classic ever. The 116 he earned on SWC day stands as one of the highest speed figures ever posted by a 3yo. If Stone is sitting in the first three at the half, he’s got a great chance to pull off his second G1 win.

The King was a handy allowance runner through his 4yo season, but at the grand old age of 5 he finally started putting it all together. Oh, sure, he was stakes placed at 3 and 4, but that’s small potatoes in comparison to his sole graded victory, the G1 CA Classic, or his third in the Movieland Shiny. He’s suddenly getting good, and that 113 last out, despite being earned in a 4-horse listed field, says this race is right up his alley.

By now I know most of the likely classic runners at least by name, but this horse was a new one for me. He’s been running almost exclusively in stakes since 2005. In grades he earned two wins in spring 2006, both at 9f. Since then he’s placed in one grade, the Maryland Special this May, and placed in a few listeds. He’s been rather inconsistent this year, popping SPs all over the board. His last race says maybe he’s back in business. the 2+ length win at 9.5 earned him a 111SP, quite competitive in this field.

AVTBAS is slowly making a name for himself in the big leagues after showing off in GR Simsters-restricted races. His record includes a 2-length GR Simsters Derby win, second in the Simsters Belmont, and a win in Smackdown at 10f over fellow Simster Passing Stone (who ran third). His G1 debut in the Travelers was a letdown with a tenth-place finish, but the colt made up for it with a lovely second in the LA derby behind A.P. Gangster. The trainer wisely gave him a confidence-restoring win in the GR Simsters Classic on Breeders Bowl day. The 109SP was his best ever, but it came on a muddy track – can he duplicate the huge effort against these excellent horses on a dry track?

Prayer is already a multiple graded winner, but he’s not yet won any of the premier dirt classic division races. He’s come close, however, with a place in Sim World Cup and he’s posted some huge speed figures of the 110+ variety several times this year. There are so many deep closers in this race, Prayer should have lots of room to settle in towards the front and try to steal the race. Also been resting since the Breeders Bowl. He’s definitely due for his turn in the spotlight.

If You Dare is a clone of the excellent racemare Xtremely Gold. Like many of those clones, IYD likes dirt and can run pretty fast. He’s graded-placed a couple times but has yet to win anything of note. In his favor is a perfect record against older horses at 10f. Odds might actually be shorter than he really deserves. He’s my horse, and thus I must support him, but it’ll be a shock if he hits the board in this crowd of top runners.

Awegustus may just be the best horse that no one knows about. His owner kept him in 11-12f races for much of his career, but finally back down to the 10 range in June and the horse has really improved. His true talent level was exposed in Smackdown when he hit a huge 117SP. The Jockey Guild Gold Cup was really Awe’s first big win, and the 112SP set a new stake record. He turned around for the Breeders Bowl Classic and nearly nailed Solar Song at the wire, falling short by just a half length with another 117. Awe does very well when prepped two weeks out, so keep a close eye on this horse. He could well steal the show here. Was third in last year’s Special, though it was run at 12f rather than 10.