14 Three-Year-Olds to take one more chance at making the Derby in The Take Your Final Shot

It may not be Europe, but we are in the “Final Countdown” before the big one in about one month.  14 trainers and 14 three-year-olds will be looking for their chance to run for glory in The Take Your Final Shot Grade 1.  This is one of the last prep races before the Bluegrass Derby one month from now and the winner will be able to cement their spot in the race.  You want a story line; we have it for you this week.  One filly will be looking to take down the boys, multiple horses will be running on one-week rest, and a few other horses will be looking for just that one chance.  Only one will come out on top.  Who will it be?  Let’s meet the field and you can decide.

PP 1- Chain Town (Speightstown X A.P. Indy X Deputy Minister)- 9/1

This brown colt out of the Given stables will be making his 11^th start of his career.  He last ran on March 21^st where he managed a first place finish in a listed stakes race over 9.5 furlongs.  That was on a wet track, but it didn’t slow the son of Speightstown down as he ran a career best speed figure of 106.  He’s yet to miss the board in all six routes holding a 4-1-1 record in those six races.  He certainly likes to come from the back as he has sat anywhere from 4 ¼ to 12 lengths off the pace before coming back to hit the board.  In talking to trainer Given, he mentioned that the dam loved the 10-12 furlong distance during her career and that has been passed down to her son who has found his step with more distance.  While it will be his first test against Graded competition, Given did mention that this was the horse with the best speed figure in his entire three-year-old crop.

PP 2- Marking Defense (First Defense X Giant’s Causeway X Awesome Again)- 9/1

The light grey colt out of the Atthewire stables will be making his first start since falling in his first career Grade 1 attempt on March 13^th.  The step up in competition has been a bit of a climb for this three-year-old as he has managed to hit the board just one time in his four Graded attempts.  Compare that with his 5-5 in other races, and you can see just how hard that jump from allowance races to stakes races is.  He will come in looking to repeat his performance from December 28^th of last year where he managed a third place finish in a Grade 3 while also running a career best speed figure of 102 in his last race as a two-year-old.  His three-year-old campaign hasn’t started as he had hoped when his comeback fell short by three lengths in a Grade 3 in February.  His other three-year-old start was a 7^th place finish in the Grade 1 The Funky Buddha back in March.  He will sit well off the pace and the increase in distance could mean that he either falls too far behind or could give him that extra ground to catch up.  It’s important to note that he has yet to hit the board over 9 furlongs in his career.

PP 3- Hide The Snitzel (Snitzel X Oasis Dream X Sadler’s Wells)- 7/1

An interesting prospect in multiple ways comes to us out of the Dixiedotco stable this weekend.  Just by looking at the pedigree, you would think that grass might be to this one’s favor.  You would be right in assuming that is where he started his career. Winning four out of his seven starts including a Grade 2 race back in November of last year.  The trainer decided to give the dirt a try in his next race to start the three-year-old campaign and he responded with a career best 103 speed figure in a 2^nd place finish in a Grade 3.  He would follow that up with another 2^nd place finish in a Grade 3.  He last raced on the 28^th of March where he would falter to an 11^th place finish in the Sand Castle Derby prep.  He will be coming in this week off of two weeks’ rest which, believe it or not, is more rest than others in this field.  How does that affect him?  He too loves to sit well off the pace and has come back in all races outside of that last race in March.  The grass still might be the favorite for this one, but one more shot at the Derby will take place before that decision is made.

PP 4- A Ghost For Gold (Ghostzapper X A.P. Indy X Mr. Prospector)- 7/1

The three-year-old bay colt out of the Kingab stables is coming off a career best 103 speed figure and has over a month of rest.  He won his first start in a maiden before missing the board in a 4^th place finish his second career race.  After that, he has not failed one time to hit the board hitting it in all six of his last races.  Those races were all against conditioned allowance races outside of his March start.  He made the jump to the graded ranks well in March running a career best speed figure and finishing 2^nd in his first Grade 3 attempt.  He missed the win by just ¼ length and came from mid-pack to do it. That is where you can probably expect him to come from today.  I don’t anticipate him to sit as far off the pace as some and that could work to his advantage as he makes the final turn.  This will be his first attempt above the 8.5 furlong distance and it will be interesting to see how the added distance either helps or hurts him as he makes the turn for home this weekend.  The odds makers like him as the co-second favorite at 7/1.

PP 5- The Poisoner (Tonalist X Giant’s Causeway X Mr. Prospector)- 20/1

The longshot in the race today comes out of the Given stables as well.  With 8 career races under his belt, you wouldn’t think that he would be sitting at 8/1 odds as he has failed to hit the board in just two races and he is undefeated at the 9.5 furlong distance.  He will certainly be one to have on those exotic tickets this weekend.  He failed to hit the board in a conditioned allowance back in July of last year and again in his only turf attempt.  Other than that, he has managed to hit the board in all dirt races and has yet to miss the board in dirt routes.  As previously mentioned, he is undefeated at the 9.5 furlong distance besting a conditioned allowance field and listed stakes field in those races.  Career best speed figures don’t jump off the page as he ran a 95 and 97 in his last two races.  Given was quick to mention that this dam “hadn’t produced a stakes winner in her first 9 foals” prior to The Poisoner.  He doesn’t seem too bothered by the fact that he’s yet to run a 100 speed figure in his career stating “while he hasn’t run nearly as fast as Chain Town, I think he has a fighting chance in this one.”

PP 6- Dixie Terrie (Territories X Dixie Union X In Excess)- 14/1

The next horse in line will be coming out of the Lightng99 stables and making his first start since the middle of March.  His two-year-old campaign featured just two races outside of the Graded ranks in which he bested a maiden in his first race and ran 2^nd in an open allowance in his second.  After that, it was right into the Graded ranks he he would win his first Grade 2 shot in May of 2019.  While he has yet to find the winners circle since then, he has increased speeds and finished in the money in 3 of his 7 starts after his first Graded win.  His three-year-old campaign has been up and down as he ran a career best speed figure of 100 two races back and narrowly missed a Grade 3 win before finishing 9 ¼ lengths back in the Grade 1 last time out.  Look for him to sit near the front of the pack, though a wire-to-wire is not expected here.  It will be his first attempt over 8.5 furlongs though his career best speed came at 8.5.

 PP 7- Third Man In (Blame X Awesome Again X Kingmambo)- 12/1

Another horse out of the Dixiedotco stables is the seven in this weekend’s race.  He is our first true wire-to-wire contender in the field and has hit the board in each career race outside of the 5^th place finish in his first career race.  He bested three out of the four conditioned allowance fields he faced and ran a career best race last time out.  That race actually came against Grade 1 competition in March of this year where he ran 3^rd in the Grade 1 The Funky Buddha.  He led most of the race in that won and just didn’t have enough finishing just 1 length behind the winner.  I expect all 13 horses to be looking at the back of this bay colt out of the gates and someone will have to pass him if they want to win this weekend.  His career best speed figure of 104 came last time out as well in that Grade 1 race.  He has all of the tools to compete in this race and should be right there in the end.  How does he handle another increase in distance?  Will it be too much for him or will he respond like he did with the increase to 9 furlongs?

PP 8- La Plaza Tequila (Empire Maker X Seeking The Gold X Pleasant Colony)- 13/1

The eight horse will come out of the Given stables and will be running against his other two stable mates in this one.  He will be looking to improve upon his first Graded attempt were he ran just 11^th and faltered greatly after leading out of the gate.  That race was his only attempt at a Graded race though he almost took down a list stakes last time out in running a career best 104 speed figure.  Like a lot of Given horses, the increase to 9.5 furlongs did him well and he will certainly be a contender today.  It will be interesting to see if he battles it out early with Third Man In or if he is content with sitting a little off the pace.  Given was quick to mention that he came off hot after a break winning an allowance race by over 10 lengths.  He ran in the same race as Chain Town and ran a “gutsy second” as his trainer said.  Given also mentioned that it looks like it will be him and Third Man In to compete for the pace.  He hopes that he can contend this weekend by setting that pace.

PP 9- Sheriff John Stone (Alderflug X Dansili X Storm Cat)- 11/1

The Nextbonus stables will be sending out the nine horse in our 14 horse field today.  While routes have been to his liking, the 9 furlong distance was not in his last race.  After starting his career on the grass, he made the switch to dirt and broke his maiden first time in July of his two-year-old campaign.  He would best a conditioned allowance field in the following race and proceed to run three straight listed stakes where he would finish 1-1-1 in those three races.  The first race of his three-year-old campaign was probably his best career race in which he ran a career best 102 speed figure and bested a 13 field listed stakes race in February.  He would then run in the Funky Buddha in March and finish 12^th.  He was never better than 10^th in that race and this will be his second run against Graded competition.  Can he take a step forward this time?  It will be another tough field and he will probably have to sit closer to the front than 9 ¼ lengths off as he did in his first attempt at the Grade 1 level.

PP 10- Associate Minister (Valiant Minister X Alternation X Empire Maker)- 14/1

Oldmoonfarms will be sending out the ten horse today.  One of the more lightly raced horses in the race today started his career in a claimer.  He easily bested that field and was immediately gelded.  He responded well to the geld and ran third and first in back to back starts to wrap up his two-year-old campaign.  To start his three-year-old campaign, he would make the jump to the Graded ranks and he would run a 2^nd place finish in a Grade 3.  His last time out, he would run a 103 speed figure—his second in a row—though he would manage just a 5^th place finish in a Grade 2.  I was able to speak with his trainer and he stated that he seemed to “keep wanting more distance.”  He does note that he “has to win to get into the Derby” though he didn’t seem too optimistic about his chances.  I loved his finishing quote though where he stated “when a horse qualifies for a big race like this, you must give them the chance to see what they can do so you can modify for the future if needed.”  He will get his chance today and will probably be sitting mid-pack before trying to make the comeback.

PP 11- Magician’s Blood (Good Magic X Bernardini X Deputy Minister)- 8/1

Padrebri is the trainer of the eleven horse in the race today.  This will be the second race in the month of April for this colt even though the race will be run on the 11^th.  That’s right, this colt is coming off of just one weeks rest and will be running his third race in a month along with his fourth race this year.  This will be an interesting experiment as he ran in the California Derby just last week.  He finished 11^th in that race and ran a 97 speed figure.  His best career race came two back as he ran a 104 speed figure and finished 2^nd in the Grade 2 Felipe Alou Stakes.  It took him three races to break his maiden, but he ran well in all three races and the only race he has struggled in was his last race.  The big question here will be how much juice is left in the tank as he ran on March 8^th and April 4^th.  He loves coming from behind and just didn’t have it last Saturday.  He’s shipped across the country and will be running on 6 days rest.  Is that too much to overcome this weekend?  The other question remains—if he does pull it off this weekend, how much would be left for the Derby just one month from now?

PP 12- Into Being Bad (Into Mischief X Unbridled X Alydar)- 6/1

The favorite in the race this weekend comes by way of Lenny271 stables.  Like Magician’s Blood, he will be coming into the race today off of just five days’ rest.  He ran in California last Sunday and fared a little better than Magician’s Blood finishing 3^rd in the Grade 1 Partnership.  That performance produced his career best speed figure of 103 and he was 11 lengths back before making a valiant effort on the comeback.  His career has been pretty consistent as he has hit the board in 9 of his 10 races.  His only miss came three back in his first Grade 3 attempt where he finished 5^th though he was making a strong comeback in that one too.  This will be his fifth race of the year and 3^rd in the last month of racing.  The same questions from Magician’s Blood apply here and he made the same trek from California to Kentucky for the race this weekend.  There is a lot of late speed in this one and you have to wonder if Into Being Bad will have the guts to make a late comeback just six days after his first attempt fell short.

PP 13- Moland (Uncle Mo X Grand Slam X Dixieland Band)- 13/1

The only filly in the race this weekend will come out of the Graywolf6 stables.  This will be the second time that the filly has taken on the boys and her first attempt did not go as planned as she finished 13^th in a 14 horse field.  She was never a factor in The Hopeless Stakes back in September of 2019.  She has had an up and down career where she won first time out and then ran second in three straight attempts in a listed stakes and two Grade 2 races.  Then came the attempt against the boys where she faltered.  She has hit the board just once since that race against the boys where she would best a Grade 3 field in November of 2019.  All other races have been against Grade 1 company since that try against the boys.  She has comeback in a lot of those races, but has fallen short of hitting the board in many of them as well.  She’s hit the board just one time in five attempts over 8 furlongs though she did match her career best speed figure of 97 last time out at 9 furlongs.  There is a lot of late speed in this one and she will be one that is looking to make a comeback late.  Does she have what it takes this time around to take down the boys?

PP 14- Hard Rock Jungle (Rock Slide X Harlan’s Holiday X Danehill)- 11/1

Rounding out the field today, we have a colt out of the Fastnfirm stables.  One of the more lightly raced horses in the field comes in with seven starts.  In those starts, he has hit the board in five though his last two Graded attempts have been two 10^th place finishes.  He started his career on the dirt with a win and two 2^nd place finishes before attempting the Grade 1 Merry Chirstmas.  He ran 10^th in that race and made the switch to the grass for his first start in his three-year-old campaign.  He won that listed stakes race with a 98 speed figure—a career-tying best.  He would then make the switch to the dirt last time out in a Grade 3 where he would run the previously mentioned 10^th.  He is one that looks to sit just a little bit off of the pace and in his wins he has managed to make the comeback.  He will be in a tough spot today with the two early pace setters and all of the late charges.  This will be his first race over the 8.5 furlong distance which could help or hinder his chances this weekend.

That wraps up our fourteen horse field.  I expect two clear pace setters this weekend with a lot of late speed.  I will be watching three things this weekend.  The first is how the two horses running on just a week rest will perform.  That is such a daunting task for the two.  Second, will be whether the early or late speed wins out.  There is some of both this weekend though the majority will be coming late.  Lastly, I will be interested to see how those trainers with multiple horses in the race perform.  Overall, you have to like this field that will be looking to take this last chance and make it their first Grade 1 win.