Triple Crown Musings
Covid 19 has disrupted racing world wide but perhaps the biggest change is moving the Kentucky Derby from the first Saturday in May to the first Saturday in September. This has wide ranging repercussions from the entry point system to the early Derby wagering and of course what happens to the rest of the Triple Crown races? I thought it might be interesting to discuss possible scenarios and get your opinions on what could happen.
To being no one knows how long the novel coronavirus will continue keeping the population indoors and some racetracks shuttered. Just this week the Stronach Group was forced to close Santa Anita, postponing the Santa Anita Derby and NYRA was forced to close Aqueduct as it has been turned into a makeshift hospital for New York’s sick. In addition many backstretch workers in New York have tested positive for Covid 19 making the future of racing in New York uncertain. When racing at each venue reopens is anyone’s guess. On the other hand Florida has continued live racing and just last week ran the Florida Derby, won by Tiz the Law one of the early favorites for a May Derby. In addition Tampa Bay Downs in Florida ran the Sam F. Davis Stakes which was won by Sole Volante. He returned to run second in the Tampa Bay Derby but was upset by 50/1 shot King Guillermo. Another Derby prep was run recently, the Louisiana Derby which was won by Wells Bayou. The Fairgrounds abruptly shut down racing the day after the Louisiana Derby. Still running is Oaklawn Park which hosts the Arkansas Derby. That race was moved to the first Saturday in May, offering a bridge race to future starts. Indeed King Guillermo’s connections had planned on training up to the Derby in September before altering their plans to head to the Arkansas Derby and then see what happens.
But what do we make of the winners of these prep races? Many horses peak early in their three year old season while others get better as the year goes on. And do these horses continue to race at the tracks still open or should they get a break until normal racing resumes? It likely depends on when the other Triple Crown races are scheduled. At this point in time racing in Maryland is canceled so it seems unlikely that the Preakness will keep it’s spot on the calendar in mid-May. But by June will NYRA have a viable shot at running the Belmont Stakes? The Triple Crown is a loosely organized grouping between the three organizations. Will Churchill Downs insist that they Triple Crown be run in its traditional order starting with the Derby in September? Will the other organizations agree to that? Certainly it would make a big impact on the Breeders’ Cup which is currently scheduled for November sixth and seventh. But what if the risks from the novel coronavirus are lessened by June? Or if NYRA is allowed to run races at Belmont without spectators?
If the Belmont were to be the first race of the Triple Crown series would the current top runners want to go for it? Asking a three year old to go a mile and a half for the first time with preps of only eight and a half or nine furlongs is a lot. You also have to consider that in a traditional year many of the prep winners don’t make it to the Belmont anyways. Yet the chance of winning the Triple Crown is tempting. Running in the Arkansas Derby and then getting five weeks off to run in the Belmont Stakes follows the pattern of several recent Belmont Stakes winners who ran in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness to point to the Belmont Stakes. Do trainers today know how to put stamina into their training regimes to get horses prepped for a mile and a half race? Might Belmont run it’s traditional Belmont prep the Peter Pan at a mile and a quarter to give horses a chance to stretch out should racing be resumed in New York by then? All intriguing possibilities.
Then comes two dilemmas – when will the Preakness be run and will traditional summer races award points to get into the Derby field. Most horses who run in the Triple Crown take time off before coming back in the July Haskell or Jim Dandy and the August Travers Stakes. Certainly it makes sense for horses peaking later in the year to be given the chance to run in a late season Derby. Imagine Arrogate’s Travers triumph and then not seeing him make the cut for the Kentucky Derby. But first we have to consider how the racing calendar would change if the Triple Crown starts with the Belmont. The biggest question would be whether the Preakness moves to the summer or its more traditional timeline of two weeks after the Derby. In addition the Travers is usually run in mid-August. We would need to see at least that race moved up a week or two if it is to be a final prep for the Derby. NYRA would almost certainly change the date for the Jim Dandy to accommodate that but other horses might choose to prep for the Derby in the Haskell and then train up to the Derby.
The last issue is Kentucky Derby Future Wagers. The first pool started in late November and the final pool is scheduled for this weekend. Some horse players have demanded that all wagers be refunded due to the move in the Derby schedule. Others are looking forward to playing this weekend’s pool knowing of the change in schedule.
So what are your thoughts? How do you think this season will play out? And do you think with all these changes we may yet see our third Triple Crown winner after a thirty seven year drought? Please feel free to comment with your speculations!
The Triple Crown races have been run out of the now standard and with different gaps between them many times before. (Gallant Fox, 1930: “That year, the Preakness came first on Friday, May 9, with the Derby on May 17, and the Belmont on June 7. For the first two, starting gates replaced the tape barrier for the first time. Belmont Park, on the other hand, waited until 1931 to switch to the stationary gates.”)
Many years there was just a one week gap between Derby and Preakness and horses would often run between the Preakness and Belmont. If they can get all the races in whatever order and whatever gaps between them don’t really matter, at least to me.
This the second straight year Churchill Downs has crapped all over the Triple Crown. Moving the Derby into September no longer makes it the Kentucky Derby, its a G1 one race in September. And – does anyone think they are going to allow 100K crowds in September? So the Derby, which was moved because Churchill didn’t want to lose the gate, will have been moved for nothing.
We all know virtually no horses from March/April are still in good form come fall. I suspect maybe 3 will be. There won’t be 20 starters in September for a variety of reasons (hurt, out of form, can’t go 10) – at least not 20 quality starters.
Why would NYRA blow up their entire Saratoga schedule (Travers and the fake Derby would be 2 weeks apart) to accommodate Churchill? They wouldn’t. Only way they move is if NBC applies TV money pressure. But then who runs in a Belmont held in October? That little thing called the Breeder’s Cup has that month. So NYRA basically would lose the Travers and Belmont to satisfy Churchill’s fake Derby. In the grand scheme of things horse racing means very little now but the Derby could have been a highlight come May after what looks to be an extremely dark April. Instead, for the second straight year, we have no Triple Crown.
We’ll all be dead or dying by then so it doesn’t matter. If, somehow, a small segment of the population survives (think the Wests, Max, two Derby hopefuls and whatever honest trainer is in their employ living on a secluded desert island), Churchill Downs, who will have outdueled NYRA in court, will race the Derby sans fans the day after Thanksgiving. Preakness cancelled. Belmont on New Year’s eve.
Thanks for the article, Spinround!
I think we all have been collectively kvetching about the Triple Crown sequence – a little too much.
Think of it this way… the Triple Crown only became a thing because of the natural sequence of these important races for 3yo. I don’t believe they were initially coordinated between the various tracks and jurisdictions. There were and are certainly other important races inbetween – it’s just that modern racing – with its 35+ days between starts – eliminated the idea of any preps for the big 3, between starts.
I don’t think NYRA should capitulate to CDI at all. If the races are run out of sequence, or even in competition with each other for entrants, the net effect is only that some of the hype about ‘potential triple crown winner’ is lost.
Considering what else is going on in the world, I am not going to mourn for one of the 4 or 5 Baffert horses who might be denied a historical achievement (we all assume he’s the only one who can win it).
Let’s say Baffert did win another Triple Crown in 2020. That’s 3 in 5 years.
Frankly, that would diminish the significance of Justify and American Pharoah, in my mind.
Imagine that, a Triple Crown Winner who is not even in the top 5 of all time horses the guy trained.
I think it makes it interesting. The Belmont will be what the Belmont is every year when there’s no Crown on the line. Move the Preakness, and it might turn into an interesting 3yo prep for the BC Classic, assuming they run it in October.
College kids will drink in the infield no matter what time of year you run this thing.
If I am a trainer, heck yeah I will run in the Belmont first. That is the most grueling of the three races, so if I could get that win out of the way first, I will do it.
There will be a different 20 horses in September than there will be in May, but there will still be 20 horses.
There will also be a lot of eyes on the tubes in September with college football, so I could see some turning to NBC for 5 minutes to just watch the Derby.