What is the measure of a horse’s legacy, its domination over its peers, the ease of the victories, the number of Grade1 wins or how many track records it holds? No matter what criteria you use, Horseshoe Bay scores top marks in every category. His campaign this year is bearing a strong similarity to Sunnybank Memorial’s unparalled sequence of wins in 2004. ‘Memo ran up a sequence of 7 graded wins incorporating 6 grade ones. On Saturday, Horseshoe Bay will seek to emulate part of that record by attempting to annex his 6^th grade 1 in a row. He is the 2/1 favorite to succeed.

Horseshoe Bay                             Trainer – texasace

(Red Ransom x Woodman x Raise A Native)

Forget anything this horse achieved prior to the Sydney Derby(G1) this year. This horse is a machine over 12 furlongs on turf and his record of 5 runs and 5 grade 1 wins over the distance is testament to that. He has broken or equaled 3 track records in that sequence, 2 of them previously held by Sunnybank Memorial. He is raising the bar to new heights and we still have no way of knowing just how good he is. As luck would have it, I bumped into his trainer texasace in the hotel lobby this morning and asked him about the race and how his charge was faring.

“Since arriving in France, Horseshoe Bay has been a little lackadasical in his training.  We had him scoped, and found a slight infection.  It was nothing real serious, but caused us to lose a few days of training. In all likelihood we would have skipped this race, but we wanted to get a prep over the course before the “Ark” to see if he liked the course. Longchamp is a tough course for horses to get adjusted to as the mile and a half turf track comprises an uphill and downhill slope with a challenging rising straight as you come out of the final bend. The winner will be an animal with speed and stamina in equal measures. I really like the chances of Sip of Saki, he seems like an improving horse, and trained by a quality trainer, who’s shown great patience with him.  I expect a huge effort from him this weekend!  He’s going to be really tough to beat, but I do like our chances, I was also saddened to see Horseshoe Bay’s great rival Jupiter’s Moons go for Man Of War against Sunnybank Memorial.  I really respect that horse, and he’s given my horse some tough challenges during this unforgettable run.  He’s a quality horse, who I expect huge things from in the future!

As he was leaving the lobby he turned and winked at me saying: 

“I see that Horseshoe Bay’s outspoken critic, stoners, has entered two horses to try and take him down.  It’s nothing more than a publicity stunt, to use in his constant propaganda in the racing press.  First of all he enters a rabbit, when there’s already going to be a strong pace set by Wild Trips, so that horse is useless in the race, and Rapid Grey with his inferior breeding likely won’t get 12 furlongs.  Only time will tell, but I don’t like their chances.”

Sip Of Saki                                         Trainer – bjbandit2

(Sakhee x Forty Niner x Buckpasser)

Former top-class juvenile on the dirt, he has translated his ability to the lawn with devastating effect. But for a neck defeat in the Roy Rogers Handicap(G3) over a mile he would be undefeated on the grass. He has subsequently gone on to add 2 more graded races to an already stellar resume in which he boasts 4 graded successes in total. Looks to be the main danger to the favorite and could be anything at this point in time.

Sir Romulus                                        Trainer – jberg                                    

(Generous x Lear Fan x Tom Rolfe)

Talented horse who was able to run 3^rd in the All Your Base Are Belong To Us Cup(G1) over 9 furlongs earlier in the year. Disappointing last time out when only 9^th in the Big Red Stakes(G1) over 10 furlongs and tries this longer trip for the first time. I have my doubts over whether he will benefit from the step up in trip as he looks best at around 9 furlongs. I have been proved wrong in the past though.

Wild Trips                                           Trainer – graywolf6

(Forest Wildcat x Sadler’s Wells x Pacific Native)

This guy is fast becoming a standing dish in graded races over 12 furlongs. A perennial front-runner he always gives his best and generally finds a couple too good in this grade. Maybe a change in riding tactics might bring about a slight improvement. Seems nailed on for a place.

Testing Positive                                   Trainer – slades2

(Cats And Dogs x Sadler’s Wells x Unbridled)

Former top-class juvenile who ran 2^nd in the Nationwide Stakes(G1) last year. He has inexplicably changed hands twice this year, most recently for $3.4 million, and new connections are on a learning mission to expose any distance limitations. Sire generally throws sprinters so this one staying the 12 furlongs is a long-shot.

Eat A Bowl Of Puke                            Trainer – targetplay

(Linamix x Limit Out x Go And Go)

A singularly unattractive name for this chestnut son of Linamix. 3 runs over a mile have yielded 3 victories, the last in an open allowance race over 10 furlongs. It certainly is a class hike here but it’s possible he may perform better than one or two others in here. Not a forlorn hope.

Dales Hollandia                                Trainer – rosemont

(Noverre x Unbridled x Sir Tristram)

Top-class miler who has managed to stretch his speed to the longer routes. The shortest of short-heads separated him and rival Wild Trips in The Seventh King Eddie Stakes(G2) in June and following a disappointing run in the SimSports Irish Derby(G1), he bounced back with a good 4^th in the Big Red Stakes(G1) over 10 furlongs. That might be the trip where he will be seen to best effect in the future.

Red Loop                                            Trainer – noia

(Red Ransom x Nashwan x Key To The Mint)

Interesting breeding, being by Red Ransom out of a full sister to sire Swain. His main claim to fame is his 3-length defeat of Horseshoe Bay back in March in a stakes race over 9.5 furlongs. He has subsequently struggled to make his mark over further and it would appear his optimum trip would be around 10 furlongs.

Rapid Grey                                         Trainer – champions4

(Tactical Cat x With Approval x Bold Ruckus)

7: 4-1-1-0-1 is this guy’s record on the lawn and incorporates a stakes win over 7 furlongs. A closing 5^th last time out over 9 furlongs to rising star Puppet Regime could mean a couple of things, he needs more ground or he wasn’t up to the class of the race. I will reserve judgement on his chances here as it will be interesting to see how he reacts to having a further 3 furlongs to travel.

Summary

The old maxim is back ’em ‘til they lose. With that in mind, Horseshoe Bay has to be the pick to continue an incredible sequence of victories. To usurp two of Sunnybank Memorial’s previous track records shows the quality of this outstanding horse. I fancy Sip Of Saki to run him close though, with Wild Trips and Dales Hollandia fighting it out for the minor places.

1. Horseshoe Bay
2. Sip Of Saki
3. Wild Trips
4. Dales Hollandia