Seeking Stephen Headlines Prancing Ferry

For the second straight year, rain promises to soften up Japan’s turf course for the eighth running of the Grade II Prancing Ferry Stakes. 

Ten fillies and mares, including two top twenty sprinters will compete for the $250,000 purse, going six furlongs.

Here is a look at the field:

PP 1  MAKING ME GO(IRE) (ROCK OF GIBRALTAR (IRE) x CAPOTE x FORTY NINER) bred by kaif, trained by kaif012 (Kaif Stables, 16%) Odds: 6-1

She comes off an allowance win.  This is a move Kaif has tried with her many times before.  Five times already she’s won a sprint allowance on the turf and followed that win with a stakes try.  Her record in those five starts is a second, two thirds, and two lasts.  That’s not a bad record.  However, now in her 37^th start she makes only her second graded try.  Her first was an undistinguished race sixteen months ago.  Her two starts on wet grass do not inspire confidence.

PP 2  LA SANTA CRUZ (ALDEBARAN x MR. PROSPECTOR x DANEHILL) bred by pata, trained by santacruz3 (Penamacor2 Stables, 11%)  Odds: 9-2

She ran into a surprisingly tough field in her start last time in a listed stakes and finished an even seventh despite posting a triple digit figure.  A repeat of that performance here is likely to put her in the money or better.  She’s run well on off tracks before, with a pair of seconds in three outings, and owns a graded win, though it came early in her three year old campaign.  She is likely to sit just behind the early runners, and if the pace breaks down she may be the one.  Alderbaran’s get have done slightly better on the dirt than the turf.  This filly has a nice turf record and has never tried the dirt.

PP 3  CREDIT CLOCK(KY) (FUSAICHI PEGASUS x RED RANSOM x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by brentuk1 (Oasis Racing UK, 23%)  Odds: 15-1

High percentage and crafty trainer makes what looks like a bold entry here.  The only three year old in the race makes her first sprint start since her debut.  Besides her disadvantage in maturity and sprinting experience, her speed figures lag behind many in here.  She was selected for a World Cup race for her only graded experience, and that was a debacle.  Yet, when a 23% trainer makes an entry on a Wednesday, after seeing almost the entire field, you have to be suspicious that he knows something that’s not obvious in the Past Performances.

PP 4  SKY BEAUTY (LEMON DROP KID x ALYDAR x STORM BIRD) bred and trained by sdmf (Black Label Stables, 20%) Odds: 7-2

SDMF makes the entry move that catches your attention.  Stablemate Tequila Shooter was entered Sunday evening, yet Sky Beauty wasn’t entered until just before the time entries closed.  We assume this elite trainer was shopping around to find the perfect place for this filly, the 20^th ranked turf sprinter.  She’s on a streak of five straight triple digit speed figures, by far the tops in the field and why she merits her favoritism.  What she’s missing is a graded win.  She’s tried twice before.  A year ago she tried the 10 furlong Flower Pot, and she ran poorly.  That, understandably, was her last route.  Three races back she tried the Grade III Scuzzy South and finished third.  She’s an obvious choice.  She has the best figures and barn managed to enlist the 30% K Ledwith to ride.  She should be able to handle the off track with three finishes in the money in her four starts.

PP 5  THE NEUTRAL ZONE (PINE BLUFF x MISWAKI x LINE IN THE SAND) bred and trained by indigo1 (Wenlock Stables, 26%)  Odds: 5-1

This filly has tried a graded sprint only once before.  A year ago she ran in the Grade III Scary Movie Special and dispatched that tough field with ease.  Since then she’s consistently in the money for this incredible barn, but she hasn’t repeated that performance.  She’s the best of the deep closers in the field.  There is a legitimate front running threat here, but rumor has it that one of the trainers has purposely entered a rabbit in order to benefit his closer.  Neutral Zone might be the one to benefit the most.  After 35 starts, she gets her first start on an off track.

PP 6  TEQUILA SHOOTER (ALDEBARAN x DIXIELAND BAND x UNBRIDLED) bred and trained by sdmf (Black Label Stables, 20%) Odds: 6-1

Any rumor that she is just a rabbit for Sky Beauty is preposterous and anyone spreading that rumor deserves prosecution.  After all it is this one that leads the field, by far, in lifetime earnings and earnings per start.  It’s true she hasn’t run a triple digit figure since February, but she’s still more than competitive after 43 lifetime starts.  She’s always a factor and almost always earns a piece of the purse.  But there’s no denying she’s lost a bit.  She won nine of her first ten races, but none of her last seven.  She won a Grade I stakes on a “good” turf early in her career, but lately she doesn’t seem to like it when the grass gets soft.

PP 7  SEEKING STEPHEN (STEPHEN GOT EVEN x SEEKING THE GOLD x STORM CAT) bred and trained by eathsong  (The Dog Pound, 15%)  Odds: 6-1

In the history of the Prancing Ferry, every winner was stakes placed in her previous start, and three of the past four winners went wire to wire.  Seeking Stephen is one of only three in here that were stakes placed last time. (Sky Beauty and Crossland Drive are the other two.)  And while there is some other early speed to pester her early, she seems to be the speed of the speed.  The rain is a Godsend.  She is been in the money in nine of her ten starts on off tracks.  Barndog did his homework in picking a jockey for this top rated filly.  G. Arnold has won this race two of the past three years.  Her odds are depressed only by a late July melt down.  She’s more than recovered from that race, as evidenced by her race-best 106 speed figure last time.

PP 8  CROSSLAND DRIVE (SOUTHERN HALO x GONE WEST x SO BLESSED(ENG)) bred and trained by ssj4vegeta  (Bigrick Stables, 15%) Odds: 8-1

She’s the only one coming to this from the same Grade II class level.  Last time she was a close third in the Numbers Don’t Lie Stakes.  The field in that race was very comparable to today’s, and it would be no surprise to see her get at least a share.  In the first race of her three year old season she won a turf sprint on a “good” track.  Her more recent wet track experiences have not looked as good though.  In mid August she finished behind both Sky Beauty and Tequila Shooter in the Scuzzy Stakes.  Tough to make her your top pick on that basis alone.

PP 9  PRABHA(AUS) (TESTA ROSSA (AUS) x WARNING(GB) x MR. PROSPECTOR) bred by totheright, trained by united (Stretch Stables, 11%) Odds: 13-1

She makes her 20^th graded stakes start today.  She has three wins in those 20 starts, but the last of those came over a year ago.  Wear and tear may be taking its toll.  In her last eleven races, even though she has a couple of wins, she hasn’t broken a 100 speed figure and is only averaging 90.6.  Her only start on a wet track came in an Equinics stakes as a three year old.  That was, of course, a much tougher field than this so her poor performance can be excused, but it’s harder to forgive her last start where she was 11^th against a field not much better than this.  On the bright side, veteran jockey N. Tippins won the first three Prancing Ferries.

PP 10  LIKEADOELIKEADEER(AUS) (RUBITON(AUS) x SAUMAREZ(GB) x BEVELED) bred by db, trained by robin3 (Cloudkye Stables, 5%) Odds: 14-1

She was claimed in August for $50,000.  In her two starts since she’s been out of the money in allowance races.  Earlier this year she picked up a couple seconds in listed stakes, running in times that would make her competitive here.  Her most recent race was substantially better than the one before, so barn is taking a flyer that she may be about to return to her March form.  It may not be likely, but it’s not as crazy an idea as it may appear at first glance.

Summary: If Seeking Stephen gets loose, and I think she can, the race is over.  Cash your $14.00 win ticket.  If the early pace is too much, Sky Beauty looks like a play, even as the chalk.  Let’s say third most likely is Crossland Drive.