Water Heather(IRE) Memorial to test filly long routers

Virginia will put female long routers to the test in this week’s highlight race, the Water Heather(IRE) Memorial. The race invites all females three years and older to run over a long thirteen furlongs of firm turf. A prize purse of $50000 awaits them at the finish line. This is the third annual running of the stakes, and you can never going to tell how this race is going to play out. In the first running, the overwhelming favorite got trounced, finishing nearly nineteen lengths out. Last year, however, race favorite Elephant(GB) closed from nearly sixteen lengths out to nip the longshot bid Big Farcough Horse by a scant three quarters of a length at the wire. This year’s race draws a field of five, and the oddsmakers are calling it a two horse race. The favorite goes off at even odds, with an 8/5 second choice. The field is rounded out by 4/1, 10/1 and 13/1 odds on the rest. Long turf is nearly always a bettor’s race, with surprises being the rule, rather than the exception. All it takes here is a surprise or two in the trifecta, and payouts could be decent for the smart players.

PP 1) Set The Clock(KY) Sired by Mineshaft, Trained by deantroops. Set The Clock(KY) is a three your old filly who seems to have everything going for her in this race. She is the race favorite, on the rail post, ridden by Virginia’s top jock. She drops in class for the first time since April of this year. She has three stakes wins to brag about, all of them this year, including a victory in the prestigious Oaks de English at Epsom earlier this year. Her last ten starts, mostly at graded level, have netted her a record of 2-1-2-1-1, with four 100+ speeds, capped by a 103.8 in Dubai earlier this year. Her last start was this year’s Breeder’s Bowl Distaff, where she never really found her kick, finishing thirteenth of fourteen by a goodly margin. After two dismal turf starts to start her career, her trainer switched her to turf and she responded by earning well over half a million dollars in the last fourteen months. This will be her longest run to date by a furlong. With the exception of her big Grade I win at twelve, the bulk of her success has come in the ten furlong range. This is not unusual for a three year old, though, when they just started seeing longer routes a few months in to this year. She is a deep closer, and her close has generally been good, but it has had trouble getting her there at the finish. The drop in class here could be an attempt to shake her up, as she has had problems over her last four against some very stiff competition. She is definitely posting some of the top speeds in this field, but she is in a field full of closers here. The extra furlong could actually work to her disadvantage here in a closer’s race. If she brings her graded quality speed to this field though, she will be hard to beat.

PP 2) Sarahalexandmaddy(KY) Sired by Tactical Cat, Trained by kfastno12. Sarahalexandmaddy(KY) is a three year old filly who is the polar opposite of her competitor to the inside. She takes a big jump up in class after spending the bulk of this year in the claim and starter allowance ranks, and comes into this race as the longshot, ridden by one of the lower ranking jockeys in the pool. This will be her first try at stakes level. She sports a nice 5-2-2-0-0 record in her last ten starts, albeit mostly in starter allowance races, with a top speed of 90.9 earned three starts back. Her last start was an A2x at this distance on dirt in Kentucky, where she appeared to stumble coming out of the gate and never recovered, finishing a long out sixth in a field of eight. She is primarily a dirt runner, running on the grass for only the second time here. Her only other turf start, though, was a career best speed for her, and she may have an upside on this surface. While she doesn’t have much turf experience, she is no stranger to distance running, with nine of her last ten starts coming at twelve furlongs or better, out to two miles. She has four wins and seven top three finishes in the claim and starter ranks at twelve furlongs and beyond. She is a deep closer, and her close has been good, but she has had problems at allowance level, never finishing better than fourth in three tries, with both of those fourths coming very early this year. She is in a field of strong, stakes level closers in this one, and that will make things hard for her. She seems to cycle rather regularly, and should be peaking for this race. The real wildcard here for her is turf. If she improves on her first turf start, that could put her right in the mix here.

PP 3) Barb’s Soda Bread(IRE) Sired by High Chaparral(IRE), Trained by heffbarn. Barb’s Soda Bread(IRE) is a four year old filly, taking the gate for her twentieth career start here. She is stll looking for her first stakes win. She has run to a 3-2-1-1-1 record in her last ten, with a top speed of 89.9 earned three starts back in an Illinois stakes. Her last run was a stakes race at this distance in New Jersey, where she gave up a late lead to finish third in a field of six. She’s a veteran turf runner, and reinforced that preference with a couple of lackluster dirt starts early in her career. She likes the distance as well, quickly climbing through her conditions in her last six, all of which have been at twelve furlongs or better, out to a long of sixteen furlongs. This filly has tried a combination of running styles. She really showed no inclination to move as a closer, and she is at her best when she is out front with an early lead. The three wins in her last six have all come on a fast break over long distances. That is her major advantage here, as it should allow her to set the pace and control the race early. With no early pressure, it should leave her with plenty of gas for the second half. The big concern is her overall speed numbers, being unable to breach the 90 mark in nineteen tries. With a field of hungry closers bearing down on her, she is going to need a lot more speed than she has previously shown to be able to hold them off in the second half.

PP 4) Rock Me Mambo Sired by Sadler’s Wells, Trained by kingfaust. Rock Me Mambo is a four year old filly, running in her nineteenth career start in this race. She boasts three stakes wins, all of them coming this year, all three in two mile races. She has been on an absolute tear this year, with a 7-0-3-0-0 record including a six race winning streak. Her top speed for the year is 102.9, which she put up in her last start. That race was a twelve furlong stakes race in Louisiana, where she hung tough throughout, finishing third in a field of six behind just stamina. She tried dirt earlier in her career, and performed well with decent speeds, but turf has been her bread and butter. This filly loves the distance, and the move out to twelve furlongs and longer is what led to that six week winning streak earlier this year. In eight career starts between twelve and sixteen furlongs, all at allowance and stakes level, she has an admirable six wins and two shows. She is a midpack to deep closer, and her close has been one of the most consistent in this field recently. She has shown she doesn’t mind a field of other closers around her, and has shown the capability to strike from just about wherever she is in the second half. In this field, I picture heading the pack behind the early speed, giving her the first shot at the leader in the second half. If she overtakes the leader early in the second half, it is going to be her that the closers are trying to run down in this one, and she has a very good chance of posting her eighth victory of the year.

PP 5) Love Quest(MD) Sired by Not For Love, Trained by hillhouse. Love Quest(MD) is a three year old filly, making her eighteenth career start in ths race. She looks to make a name for herself here in her first stakes start. She has run to a record of 2-2-2-1-1 over the course of her last ten starts, posting a top speed number of 98.5 in her last start. Her last outing was an A3L on the venerable Ascot turf track, where she smashed a field of twelve by three and a quarter behind a powerful second half close. She made one dirt run earlier this year on an off track, and it seemd to energize her. Since that point, her speeds have been improving with every start from speeds that would barely cut it in low level allowances up to speeds that put her in stakes contention here. The increase in speeds have also come with stratching her out to longer distances. This will be her longest start by a furlong, but her last two wins both came at the twelve furlong mark, and if those starts are anything to gauge by, she shouldn’t have any problems at all with the extra distance. She is a deep closer, and her close has been the picture of consistency this year. Her biggest problem has been running out of real estate late, and that shouldn’t be an issue for her here. She has exhibited one of the deepest power closes in this field, and it seems like the farther she is out at the half, the better she likes it. With the way her speeds have been improving, she could be poised to shatter the 100 mark here, and at this distance, that would be enough to be more than competitive in this field. If you are looking for a longshot bet in this one, she gets my recommendation.