BB Juvy Filly P-2

#6 Crafty Novel 14/1

Race Record – 6-1-1-1Craft Novel broke her maiden in a five furlong listed stakes back in April. She has since run in nothing but graded races and has not had the best results although with added distance she has been improving. Two starts ago she ran a mile for the first time in the Grade Three Chicago-DC Lassie. She finished fourth that day and earned a respectable 84 speed. It is difficult to gauge how well she might have done if the race were not on an off track. It was her first try on the off going and she did rebound well to be third last time out in the Grade One Darley. She ran an 89 speed that day, just a touch off what the top fillies have run coming into this race so even though one might dismiss her off a lone win she could be dangerous.

Running Style –

This filly has seemingly tried every running style in her brief career. She was on the lead in her first start before being run down to finish second. Her stakes win saw her close from seventh in a ten horse field. Most recently she’s been just off the pace early on, running third at first call in both her route races before fading.

Pedigree –

Crafty Novel is a daughter of Novellist out of a Crafty Prospector x Storm Cat mare. She has nine other siblings, one of which is also a graded placed stakes winner. That colt by Midnight Lute was a confirmed sprinter on the dirt.

#7 Explosive Road 12/1

Race Record – 6-3-2-1

Explosive Road enters the race off a third place finish in the Grade One Walnute Tree Stakes where she ran an 88 speed. It was her first effort in a route and possibly showed distance limitations for the filly (more on that later). She had previously run into Bowlegged Mule in the Grade Two Hoserhead Juvenile Fillies and finished a really good second running an 87 speed at six and a half furlongs. She started her career in Februrary and won a listed in June.

Running Style –

Explosive Red has pretty explosive speed from the starting gate. She was on the lead at first call in half of her races – her maiden and allowance win and the Walnut Tree Stakes. She did manage to win her listed race by battling in second for the early lead before taking over and digging in against the closers. She’ll have company on the pace in this start and that’s when her stamina will come into play.

Pedigree –

Explosive Road is a daughter of Quality Road out of the grade one winning Bernardini x Forty Niner mare Explosive Nine. Breeder/trainer given described Explosive Nine as a grade one winner at a mile who struggled at distance past that. For that reason he has concerns as to whether her daughter will have similar distance limitations. In reality she did lose an open lead in the stretch in her only route race. But sire Quality Road should impart enough stamina to get a little extra distance. It may be that this filly turns out to be just a sprinter or miler but only time will tell.

#8 Stopping Traffic 10/1

Race Record – 7-3-3-0

Stopping Traffic began her career in February against males in a residency contest race, a maiden for foals of sires by Unbridlded’s Song. She defeated some well bred sons and daughters of more fancied Unbridled’s Song sons like Arrogate and Liam’s Map but as yet she is the only stakes winner to come out of the field. Three starts later she earned that distinction by winning a listed going seven furlongs. She followed that up with a July allowance run going seven and a half furlongs and running a strong 87 speed in it. That race was meant to set her up for route tries. She was second in the Grade Three Chicago-DC Lassie in September where she ran an 89 speed over a good dirt surface. Back a month later she was only fifth in the Grade One Frickazee Stakes over a fast track where her speed regressed to an 86 – slower than that allowance win. Both races were run at a mile.

Running Style –

Stopping Traffic is a closer and there’s no way around it. She’s been last or next to last in five of her seven starts. She’s been ten lengths back or farther at points in her last three races and in two of them she was able to close and it the board. In the Frickazee she wasn’t even as far back at the second call as she was in her two prior runs but somewhere between the second and third call she picked up the pace in those other two races and she came up empty in the Frickazeee. She did eventually start closing and ran up to be fifth but one wonders if that four week break between starts may not have been enough for her.

Pedigree –

As mentioned Stopping Traffic is a daughter of a son of Unbridled’s Song, in this case Crossing Traffic. She’s out of the graded placed Tapit x Rock Hard Ten mare Toogoodforyourhome. That mare was a solid sprinter and her only other foal is a three year old winner by Tapit. Second dam Rock Solid Star was a stakes winning sprinter.

#9 Smoking Red 9/1

Race Record – 6-3-2-1

Smoking Red made her first route start in August in a listed stakes – her stakes debut and passed both tests with flying colors. She had looked solid as a sprinter, starting her career in March going five and a half furlongs. It took her three starts to break her maiden but once she did she also added an allowance win before that listed score. The allowance also was at a longer distance than you might expect for the time of year, it was a July seven and a half furlong race. What was very impressive though was that she went from a 73 winning speed in that allowance to an 89 in the listed. Both had short fields for their class, four horses in the allowance which was a very easy win and only eight horses running in the listed but that race too saw a fairly easy win. Smoking Red prepped for this start in the Grade One Darley at a mile and a sixteenth and she ran a really solid second with a 91 speed. Trainer given, who has had several run second or third in grade one juvenile races this year without winning so far was very encouraged by that second and is “hoping she can take a step forward here.”

Running Style –

This filly likes to come from the back-middle of the pack. She’s not going to be in the top flight but she won’t be languishing with the real closers either. She’s got a great turn of foot but her style makes her vulnerable to horses in front of her moving first. In the Darley winner Ruler of Justice got first jump on her, making a move from fifth early on while Smoking Red was making her move from seventh. Even still she was still making up ground on Ruler of Justice at the end but there are some nice fillies who will be in front of her early on in this race.

Pedigree –

Smoking Red is a daughter of Candy Ride out of the graded placed stakes winning Malibu Moon x Deputy Minister mare Blood Sacrifice. Blood Sacrifice is a scratchbred mare and this is her second foal. Given reports that although Blood Sacrifice was grade one placed going a mile and an eighth that he feels she was probably better at a mile and he wonders if that will be passed along to her daughter.

#10 Arrokaza 8/1

Race Record – 6-4-1-0

Arrokaza is the third of three fillies sent out by trainer given and is both his and the oddsmaker’s most fancied runner. She’s the only one who is a graded winner already (the other two are graded placed stakes winners) and she did that when second in the six and a half furlong Grade Two Lean Machine Stakes back in July. She had previously won a listed at six furlongs as well as an allowance and a maiden way back in March. Her first loss came when she was fourth in the Grade One Getaway Stakes at seven furlongs. Given said that, as this filly comes from the family of two Hall of Fame mares “the expectations have always been there for this one. Then she goes and wins her first four races, including a G2 at 6.5f, and the expectations increase.” Most recently she tried a route for the first time and was second in the Grade One Frickazee at one mile.

Running Style –

Arrokaza won the Lean Machine Stakes and two of her other victories going wire to wire. Her listed stakes victory saw her battle in second for the early lead before taking over and storming to victory. She battled for the lead early on again in the Getaway but was unable to go on to win. In the Frickazeee she was sixth early on before making an early move towards the lead. She could only get second and seemed to flatten out a bit in the stretch but it was her first route and she was taken way out of her preferred style so there are a a lot of questions about where she will be early on here and how it will work for her.

Pedigree –

Arrokaza is a daughter of Arrogate out of the graded placed stakes winning Giant’s Causeway x A.P. Indy mare Garukaza. Garukaza’s dam is the Hall of Fame mare Arawaza who was also produced by a Hall of Fame mare, Kamikaze. Garukaza was a solid runner, winning eleven races and earning over a million dollars. She did her best running on dirt going a mile and an eighth but she didn’t win her first stakes race until she was a four year old so it is somewhat surprising that her daughter is so precocious. Garukaza’s only other foal is a stakes winning colt by Speightstown.