The Little Momma Debutante
Although titled “The Little Momma Debutante”, I am sure that all the trainers with entries in this Grade III Stakes race are light-years away from viewing their 2yo fillies as broodmares. The temperature will be warm enough this weekend in
(PP1 – 6/1) Deb’s Empire, of the Elprofit1 stable, is a big question mark in this one. This Empire Maker X Shareef Dancer X Slew City Slew filly has only 2 races to-date, both at 6 furlongs and both in MSW company. So, what not to like? I don’t think the jump from MSW to stakes company while changing distances is in her favor. I also don’t like the fact that she won her 2nd try at the same distance in MSW company while taking a huge step down. This is a huge step up at a different distance against horses that have shown they can handle stakes company. What do I like about Deb’s Empire? I like the fact that she has shown a small improvement in her SP #s so far. Unless she proves, like others have to in this race, that she can handle the distance and the company, she will have a tough race.
(PP2 – 8/1) Marmaria, of the Fernando2 stable, is an interesting choice in this race. Although she is very lightly raced (only 2 races), and has yet to try stakes company this seems to be her distance. This Bahri X War Chant X Shirley Heights(GB) filly, clearly showed in her debut that she was not a sprinter on the turf. So what does a good trainer do? Fernando2 showed the way when he switched her to dirt and stretched her out 2 furlongs. Marmaria improved by 21 in her SP #. If she shows an improvement over her 2nd try at this distance and shows that she can handle tougher company than MSW, she should challenge in this one. Good placement by Fernando2.
(PP3 – 9/5) Moon Queen(SAF) of the Sprinter stable, is the other experienced filly in this one. In her 5 races to-date, Moon Queen(SAF) has never finished worse than 5th, and she has been running in some big fields. After her 2nd place finish in her debut, missing the winner’s circle by a head, she came out with a vengeance in her 2nd race going to the front from the start and wiring the field, while firing an 82 SP #. Although she finished only a 3rd in her first try at stakes company, this Victory Moon(SAF) X Giant’s Causeway(IRE) X Kingmambo filly was only ¾ of a length back of the winner. Although she won her next try at stakes company, the thing that stands out to me was her last out where she finished 5th in a full field of Grade I fillies, firing off an 83 SP #. She may not be the ever improving filly that Crimson Express(IRE) clearly is, but Moon Queen(SAF) is stepping down in company and looks to be very consistent in her races. Look for the field to be chasing this go-to-the-front filly as they come into the final turn.
(PP4 – 7/1) Momma Used To Say, of the Willyam38 stable, is another filly making the jump from MSW to stakes company. Although she has only one race under her belt, this Action This Day X Personal Hope X His Majesty filly won with authority in her debut, firing off an 80 SP #, winning by 3 ½ lengths. Some may say she was not really tested in that six horse field, but this race is only ½ length further than her debut, so this is a distance she seems to like. Momma Used To Say is a front running filly so look for her to be up there with Moon Queen(SAF) coming out of the gate.
(PP5 – 7/2) Crimson Express(IRE), one of the most experienced fillies in the race, of the Socko stable has been the most successful filly to hit the track in this race. Out of 5 races, this
(PP6 – 6/1) Eagle Wolf, of the Graywolf17 stable, could break some hearts in this one if some things fall into place for her. She has the best SP # to-date behind Crimson Express(IRE), but rather than steadily improving, Eagle Wolf is going the other direction. She has taken two steps back in her SP #s since her first time out, falling from an 84 to her last race of 71. Her first time out was at 6 ½ furlongs, as was her last race where she took on Grade I company. She was clearly overmatched in the Grade I field, so she steps down to Grade III company today. I think in order for her to do better than a 3rd she must like the distance, be able to come off the pace better than Crimson Express(IRE), and not let Moon Queen(SAF) get to far out in front.
(PP7 – 5/1) Indian Whiskey, of the Quietgrind stable, will have to like the longer distance to win this one. This Indian Charlie X Cure The Blues X Hail To Reason filly broke out of the gate with a dominance in her first race firing off a 73 SP # to win by 1 ½ lengths. She continued that success in her first stakes race coming off the pace to win by 1 ¼ lengths. Since her first two races, however, Indian Whiskey has not enjoyed the same success. She has been stretching out from 5 ½ furlongs in her debut to 6 ½ furlongs in her last two races. I am not sure whether the added distance over 6 furlongs has affected her or whether she has just been facing tougher fields. It could be either one, since her SP # are all very consistent. She is stepping down from her Grade II race last time out, but I think she will need to show us that she likes the distance to finish better than 3rd in this one.
I look for Moon Queen(SAF) and Momma Used To Say to set the pace in this one while trying to hold off the rest of the field going into the final turn and coming down the stretch. I don’t think there is truly a proven stakes horse in this field other than Crimson Express(IRE), who will be flying around the final turn and down the stretch. I think Crimson Express(IRE) will be taking pictures in the winner’s circle with Moon Queen(SAF) and Marmaria battling for 2nd and 3rd.
Bigbaba