Black Type Bugler

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Black Type Bugler

eHorseracing.com’s Official Online News Source

Full field for the CARLTON FISK Handicap, 1 1/2 miles firm turf California

One week on from the thrills and spills of the Breeders Bowl, in what is a quiet week of sim action, California is one of the few lucky tracks to be hosting a stakes race this week. We have a full field of 14 for what is their highlight of Saturdays card, the grade 3 CARLTON FISK HANDICAP, to be run over a mile and a half on the firm turf for all horses 3 yo +. We have a prize fund of $150000 and it looks a competitive event on paper. Lets have a look at the form on offer and see if we can make any predictions.

 

1) SPANISH HARLAN fleet1 143454 S Beach 10/1

3 yo Colt

Harlan`s Holiday x Conquistador Cielo x Storm Bird

16 runs 3 wins 2 seconds 4 thirds $204795

Winner of 2 3 yo stakes races earlier in the season, both over 9.5 furlongs. He was also grade 2 placed over a mile in New York back in April of this year. Ran a pb last time out when finishing 4th in a 3yo Grade 2 over 10 furlongs in New South Wales, beaten 5 1/4 lengths with a 101. Whilst he is consistent I cant be sure that this 12 furlongs trip is his best, although he has ran a respectable race over 13 furlongs 4 runs back, and also he is stepping out of his own age group and taking on older horses, a few of which have superior times on their resume. It might be a tough race for the Harlan

 

2) AMERICAN ELECTRIC bewitched 513140 O Brim 7/1

5 yo Horse

Trempolino x Woodman x Green Dancer

14 runs 5 wins 2 seconds 1 third $270165

Very lightly raced, having only 1 run as a 3yo. After having his first 4 races on dirt, the switch to the lawn has looked a good career move for this one and he has rewarded the boss of AJM Racing with a win in the Grade 2 Bluegrass Cup in Kentucky in his penultimate run in September. He produced his best ever speed figure that day of 107 in what was a convincing victory. He suffered a blip last time out in the Grade 1 Canada Cup, and his trainer has allowed only 3 weeks to get over this, On the other hand he has hardly been ran into the ground over his career and if anything in this race is likely to show improvement, it should be this one.

 

3) BANE samurai 303122 R Simcox 5/1 fav

5 yo Horse

High Chaparral x Danehill x Pleasant Colony

32 runs 9 wins 7 seconds 4 thirds $922825

Bane has been a Stakes Class performer for a long time now, back in his 3 yo career he was a regular winner of Stakes races. As he has aged it is more likely to be a placed effort in the class, but with winnings of just under a million, he doesn`t owe anyone anything. He is running right up to his best at present, and raised his pb speed figure up one point last time out , finishing 2nd in a 10 1/2 furlongs stakes races in Idaho, beaten a couple of lengths with a 105. I would give him a better chance if todays race was over a furlong and a half shorter, but in his current form he may still be capable of running a good race over this trip.

 

4) ELYSIAN isolde 121422 E Land 6/1

5 yo Horse

Sadler`s Wells x Kingmambo x Cozzene

32 runs 13 wins 6 seconds 2 thirds $509818

This one has a lot going for it, a bona fide stakes performer who is presently in fine form having broke 100 in 3 of his last four runs, a big win to stakes ratio, top class lines and a good trainer to boot , having been sent from the much respected Chilcoat stables. No doubt about the trip either, this mile and a half is right up his street. it looks like Elysian has a big chance of adding to his 4 stakes wins. It wont be easy with horses like American Electric in the field, but this one has a leading chance.

 

5) DEPUTY MON rowdy 521110 P Incay 17/1

4 yo Colt

Maria`s Mon x Deputy Minister x Big Spruce

22 runs 6 wins 3 seconds 6 thirds $190087

Versatile stayer who does it on both sand and turf, albeit probably not in this level. Consistent enough, usually running in the nineties, he would have to step his game up to another level if he wishes to takes prize money back to Ace Stables. Last time out he ran his usual race in a 14 furlong stakes in Portugal, the KING POGO Cap (a wonderful name for a race, shouldn`t it be a grade 1 ?) never close enough to challenge and beaten 10 lengths in the end with a 94. The surface switch and the drop back to 12 furlongs might help his chances, but I cant see him being good enough.

 

6) EL FREDO fwcltd 133615 T Bates 6/1

4 yo Colt

El Prado x Trempolino x Stage Door Johnny

21 runs 8 wins 3 seconds 2 thirds $647817

Double grade 2 winning colt who has rewarded his trainers tender handling with some fine runs, the pick of these coming back in March of this year when he slewed through the yielding turf to win the Pan American Cup in North Florida by a couple of lengths. 2 runs on in April he achieved his pb when running third in the GEO Classic in Victoria with a 104. He has just slipped under this standard in 3 subsequent outings, failing to break 100 in his last 3 runs and needs to get back to previous form to have a chance of gold here. No doubts about the distance though, and we know he has the talent if he puts his best hoof forward so he must hold some kind of a chance.

 

7) ST EDISON landen1 133301 N Bonus 28/1

11 yo Horse

Wiganthorpe x Caerleon x Reviewer

29 runs 5 wins 5 seconds 10 thirds $129044

Big outsider on the book, and I feel the bookies have got it right. Winner of a dire but valuable allowance over 13 furlongs last time out with an 87, it leaves this horse, who`s only previous stakes experience was a thumping over 11 furlongs at California back in September last year, with a mountain to climb. He got lucky last time out but his luck runs out here.

 

8) CHANTENAY slewdown 114532 D L Jones 11/1

4 yo Colt

Theatrical x Cozzene x Alledged

20 runs 4 wins 4 seconds 3 thirds $105142

Strange sort of a horse, capable at a mile upwards and while he is a winner twice at 12 furlongs, I would guess that he is probably better over shorter. Even though he has won over todays trip he has been outstayed in allowance company in his last two races over a mile and 9.5 furlongs. Takes a huge rise in class here, and whilst he is a good enough horse in his own right, this class rise combined with the trip should mean its all a little too much for him.

 

9) ESPLENDIDO evefly 121521 C Mecklengburg 12/1

4 yo Colt

El Corredor x Kingmambo x Raise a Native

28 runs 8 wins 7 seconds 5 thirds $254357

Big price for an in form horse. This one has come full circle in his career, starting out on the turf before a prolonged spell on the dirt then back to the lawn again. His latest stint on the turf has provided his trainer with the answer to what is his best surface as he has won twice and been placed twice in stakes company, and in doing so has raised his pb speed figure to 103. Coming off a win in an 11 furlongs stakes race in Ireland, in which he posted a 99, it wouldnt take him too much improvement to be up with the market leaders here.

 

10) ADDED BONUS towerlight 211202 M Billig 11/1

4 yo Colt

Manila x Thunder Gulch x Generous

36 runs 5 wins 6 seconds 7 thirds $86491

Looks allowance class only to me. In good enough form with himself, but a level a rung or two below this. he ran a pb last time out in a 13 furlongs allowance race in Montana, getting outstayed by the winner in the final furlong to go down by 4 1/4 lengths. His 99 speed figure that day represents his fastest ever, and whilst the drop down to 12 furlongs may help his chances I dont believe that he is really good enough to win in this level against these horses.

 

11) EXPECTED YIELD super8 411632 M Staples 9/1

4 yo Colt

High Yield x Saddler`s Wells x Councellors Image

29 runs 6 wins 9 seconds 4 thirds $451418

In the best form of his career. having finished runner up in the 12 furlong Classic Turf Stakes in New York and prior to that finished third in the grade 2 Horseshoe Falls Stakes in Ontario where, for the first and only time in his career he broke 100. And its going to take a new pb for him here to take this race. whilst its not impossible it is going to be difficult for him. He may run a new pb and not even get a place. He is sure to get the trip how ever, and this front running double stakes winner wont be defeated by lack of guts.

 

12) ALUM BAY super20 143621 F Gossett 10/1

3 yo Colt

High Chaparral x Kris S. x Irish River

13 runs 3 wins 4 seconds 2 thirds $714388

Those silly bookies have mucked up the book again, for what this one done in his last race should have made him quite a warm favorite for this today and my advice to punters is lump on. Stablemate of Expected Yield, and a longer price than that one too, I prefer this one by far. Last time out showed considerable improvement to smash a decent field of graded horses, including the much more fancied American Electric, when winning the grade 1 Canada Cup over this trip at Ontario, winning by 2 1/2 lengths against older horses. His run of 106 was needless to say his best yet, and with only 13 runs on the board there must be more to come. Exciting prospect not just for today, but surely his trainer must be keeping one eye on next years Equinics. Huge chance.

 

13) NUMEROUS HUNT bayooherd 000000 K Murano 99/1

6 yo Horse

Numerous x Baby Slew x Superoyale

63 runs 13 wins 4 seconds 6 thirds $266191

This poor wretched animal, once a proud stakes winner over 7.5 furlongs now reduced to a bag of bones. In his whole career he has been a dirt horse who has never looked like getting any trip over a mile so hows he gonna get a mile and a half on turf. Surely screaming out for retirement, this faded force is a shadow of his former self that struggles to hit speed figures of over 80 even in races at his favored sprint distances, Not a prayer here,

 

14) RHAEGO paulson 220331 A Lewis 8/1

4 yo Colt

Empire Maker x Danehill x Riverman

18 runs 4 wins 4 seconds 4 thirds $131113

Classy dirt horse who has carried his form over to turf very well. With a lifetime best of 105, which came on the sloppy dirt over 10 furlongs, last time out in an allowance on turf over 11 furlongs he produced his best run for over a year and won easily enough by 2 1/4 lengths with a speed of 103. Great run but surely that form cant be better than the Grade 1 win of Alum Bay so why he is a shorter price than that one is a mystery to me. Still this one is decent in his own right. and whilst I cant see him beating Alum Bay he may still prove good enough to snatch a place.

 

POGO PREDICTS

I cant understand why Alum Bay is such a big price, his last run was a fine one against older horses, IF he does the same here he wins. American Electric was a huge flop in that race, but he has class and I expect him to make a much better fist of things in this race and I take him to finish 2nd with Elysian in third.

12 to beat 2 with 4 in third.

 

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