Breeders Bowl Classic
We are privileged this week to watch a Breeders Bowl Classic field that is one of, if not the, best group of 14 horses ever gathered for a sim race. Many Grade 1s draw some excellent runners, but few attract such a deep field of truly talented horses as we will watch in New Jersey on Saturday. Three of 2006’s top five BB Classic finishers return to face the younger stars, among them the 2007 Bluegrass Derby runnerup , the 2007 Middle Jewel and New Yorker winner, the 2007 Eddie Haskell champ, and the 2007 Jockey Guild Gold Cup victor. Add in a Sim World Cup champ and his runnerup, one of the sim’s top milers, the 2005 Middle Jewel victor, and the 2007 Glenn Handicap winner, and we have a hellof a great race.
A brief trip through the Breeders Bowl Classic record books:
The Classic is one of those oh-so-storied races. Who can forget the dominating wire-to-wire win of Gatling Prospector in the inaugural race in 1999? Billg51’s 3yo colt parlayed that outstanding performance into Horse of the Year honors, and will forever be remembered for his swift turn of foot. Winning the Middle Jewel and placing in the other two Triple Jewel races sure didn’t hurt the reputation of the sim’s first great horse.
The Classic-HOTY double did not happen in 2000. Stormy Prospector took the Classic by over four lengths with a strong come-from-behind run for trainer Bertamiran, but School Kris took year-end honors. Stormy came back in 2001 to finish second in the Classic, and finally earned that Eclipse as the outstanding older horse of 2001.
Stormy Prospector nearly ran down the winner of the 2001 Classic, but Mine Forest held on to win by just over a length. Fitting that Forest won, as he was fourth behind Stormy the previous year. Kywildcats’ 9yo horse is one of the few to have notched G1 wins over both surfaces. The legendary Joe Cayenne stole HOTY honors with his turf exploits.
Horn Knee Sal was the star of the 2002 Classic, winning by over three lengths. Such notables as Western Groom, Dusty Dance, Stormy Prospector, and Unbridled Fury were among Sal’s vanquished foes. Trainer Chas unfortunately did not receive the annual trophy, as the great racemare Storm Dog was in the midst of her amazing career.
2003 might be best remembered as the year of the Triple Jewel. I Seek U shocked with the sim his sweep of the three biggest races for the 3yo crew. Add in his Travelers win and it’s no surprise that all eyes were on Indy’s colt in the Classic. More eyes should have been on Hannibal’s youngster, however. Silverwore placed second in both the Bluegrass and New Yorker, won the Haskell, and trained perfectly to the Classic. So perfectly that he had the guts to keep his head out in front at the wire to win the biggest race of his career. Silverwore was up against so many top 3yos for Eclipse honors that he was not recognized, but those followers of the dirt classic division will certainly always remember this excellent horse.
The 2004 Classic winner continued the pattern of no Eclipse honors despite a strong year-long campaign. Tuff Enuff came from the back to win by almost two for trainer Ladysierra1. Tuff earned Middle Jewel, New Yorker and Windy City Gold Cup wins the same year. Tuff also set the Classic record.
The Older Horse title was back in the Classic winner’s grasp in 2005 as Call Of The Wild II strolled to a nearly three-length win as part of an Eclipse-winning year. Gipper8’s horse also earned Sand Castle Classic and CA Classic wins in 2005.
2006 was the year of the Song. Solar Song, that is. Yep, my horse. He capped a great year with the record-tying Classic win and returned the HOTY honors to his division for the first time since Gatling Prospector in 1999.
The current record for the Classic stands at 2:00 flat. Given two of these horses have run sub-2:00 times for the 10-furlong distance, and several others have come very close, breaking that record is a distinct possibility.
The 2007 Breeders Bowl Classic field (in reverse order of odds):
The field longshot at 24-1 is Be Auror Song. The Unbridled’s Song colt last won back in May, but the second to Triple A Prayer in the Sim World Cup Nine had to get trainer Fernando really excited about the 3yo. Be Auror Song runs out of the Auror stable, where he has amassed just over half a million in earnings through five wins from 15 starts. BAS loves to be in front, and he is usually the pacesetter or near the lead when he gets the chance. In his favor is an excellent post draw. Starting from gate 2, if he breaks well he’ll have an easy time grabbing a spot near the rail toward the front of the field. Top SP of 108 won’t be enough to win this one, but he’s clearly on the improve as he matures. With two losses as a tired and fading horse in two 10f starts, I have to doubt he’ll win here. However, watch out for his next start, especially if he backs up to 8.5-9f. Given his parentage, he could also be a turf threat if he ever gets a try over grass.
Waymart is a perfect 2 for 2 when breaking from the rail, making the post draw for this race perfect for the Statue of Liberty colt. This is Waymart’s first start at 10f, but the ease with which he won G1 Eddie Haskell suggests that 10f will be no problem for the Mpeace777 stable representative. Trainer Smubs has brought Waymart along very well, challenging the colt to bigger and better things in a superbly times fashion. As recently as April Waymart was hanging out in allowance company, but Smubs recognized he had something special and started pushing the colt along. That effort has earned the colt over $800k and six wins from 13 starts. His best SP to date is 109, earned in the Haskell. Add in a 108 from the G2 Flat Land Derby win, and you’ve got a solid horse. This is his second start against elders; the first, in the Sim World Cup Nine, did not result in a great finish but the colt acquitted himself well and should improve off that effort. At 23-1, he could make for a very interesting play in trifecta betting
Triple A Prayer is another 3yo, but unlike the previous two the colt has already shown he’s got the heart of a champ. He turned in a really strong win in the inaugural Sim World Cup Nine last out, beating his elders with ease the first time he faced them. The group featured Fly For Buda, Be Auror Song, Waymart, Formulated Risk, and Privileged. Trainer PazJazz has to be pleased at the colt’s strong record versus five of his opponents here. That SWC win got Paz thinking this colt could go all the way. The Aldebaran colt is going 10f for the first time, but he’s got such a smooth steady stretch run there seems no question he can get 10 with ease. In 20 starts, the Pazbarn has ushered Triple A to eight wins including two grades and four listed stakes for almost $700k in earnings. Top SP of 110 was earned in the SWC, and the colt appears to be on the verge of bumping that way up. 17-1 odds just might be a gift from the sim gods.
You know it’s an amazing field when you have a horse like Awesome Force set at 15-1 on the morning line. The Awesome Again colt is the star of the Camry stable by virtue of seven graded wins. AF has finished out of the top two just four times in 17 starts. What a wonderfully consistent horse Will owns. While AF is winless at 10f, his Travelers start two back saw him make up almost ten lengths in the final quarter to finish about two lengths behind Passing Stone. A top SP of 109 (earned in the Middle Jewel is supported by a pair of 108s (New Yorker and Swamps). Among the best of his generation, certainly compares well to his older peers, and must be respected in this race. Perhaps his weak spot is that closing style: with strong closers Ermington Pegusus and Solar Song entered, AF will be hard-pressed to keep up. The trainer thinks that the probably fast pace will help, and expects that the colt’s easy prep (compared to the very tough preps by some of the other top contenders) has him perfectly primed for a huge run.
The final youngster in the field is the Jimcougar stable’s Passing Stone, at 13-1 on the morning line. In 11 career starts, Stone has finished of the board just twice. His young career has traversed far and wide, taking him to a second in the Breeders Bowl (losing by a head), a 2+ length win in the Travellers, and a second to Ermington Pegusus in the Sim World Cup Classic. Horses trained by Lenny (of Evil Empire fame) are well used to winning when it counts. Lenny admits he pushed the horse severely through the Triple Jewel campaign, but believes Stone is back in form for this run. The jockey has been ordered to keep Stone a few lengths off the pace, noting that staying too close would probably result in Stone being “toast when it counts.” Stone’s career-high SP of 109 was a good one, earned in the Travellers. Have to like him a lot here, especially if he has the stamina to stay close to the front yet hold off what will be a ferocious closing charge.
Also at 13-1 is Otto Causes. The 4yo Giant’s Causeway colt runs out of the Verona stable, part of the Epic string of stables. Causes hasn’t managed a win since the G1 Glenn Handicap at 10f back in February, but despite his winless ways he’s still placed third three times since, twice in graded starts. Most recently he was third in the G2 Windy City Gold Cup at 10f, though he lost by 10 lengths after leading most of the way and tiring badly in the stretch. Causes is almost certain to head for the lead, but probably doesn’t have the capability to hang on for a place let alone a win. Maybe one of these days his stubborn trainer will finally allow the colt to try sprinting where his natural early speed could be a big advantage.
The third 13-1 entrant is millionaire One Wild Cat. What a great claim SDMF made for the Sdmf5 stable just over 2 years ago. For a mere $35k, he bought a horse that has since won three G2s and three listed stakes. It’s a surprise, however, to see the Wild Again 5yo show up for this race. OWC is primarily a miler, and has only run beyond 8.5f once in his 40-race career. That was in April 2006, and OWC lost by 15 lengths. But hey, the horse has the stakes points, he’s been doing very well lately, and earned his way in. Last raced in August, but seems to have been injured so this is his first back. Would much rather back him in his second start back instead. It would be a real surprise to see OWC win here, but next out I think he’s got a good chance, especially if dropped down to 9f.
Awegustus barely squeaked into the race as the #14 on the preference list, and has been relegated to #14 in the starting gate. The 4yo son of Awesome Again grabbed the points needed to get the entry with a record-setting Jockey Guild Gold Cup win two weeks ago. Normally trainers would be worried about the fast turnaround, but trainer Silver Charm notes his colt’s best performances have come after a two-week break. Awegustus has faced some of the best horses in the sim and acquitted himself very well. In July he nearly beat out Solar Song for the Smackdown win to post a huge 117SP. That Jockey Guild win earned the colt a 112SP. Under the care of the Theagakhan stable, Awe has gathered seven wins from 23 starts for $1.1million in earnings. His connections had hoped the rain clouds hovering over New York would head south as Awe is undefeated on a wet track, but the fast track is no worry at all for the trainer. After all, that Smackdown and JCGC were both on fast tracks. Awe generally runs from midpack, but is versatile enough to move forward or drop back if need be. Jockey W McClendon is the the trainer’s secret (well, not so secret anymore) weapon. 10-1 odds.
Fly For Buda has the distinction of making his second start in this race, this time at almost half the odds as last. In 2005 he finished fifth at 17-1, this time around he’s 10-1. The 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells ran fifth in 2005, skipped the 2006 running, and is back to try to get his big win. Topicount’s colt already has several big wins, of course. Among them are the California Derby, Middle Jewel, Citation Cup, and Statewide Pinhead Guild Cup. As a representative of the Gg stable, Fly has earned almost $4million in 14 wins from 38 starts. I’ve always considered Fly more a 9f specialist than a horse that appreciates 10. However, this is a horse that placed third in the Bluegrass Derby and fifth in his other three 10f attempts (the Haskell, Breeders Bowl Classic, and I’m Still A Sophomore [all G1s]). Not bad at all. A string of 100+ SPs dates back to an injury sustained just over a year ago. Despite his long and tough career, Fly still has the goods to pull off this win. I think the distance is a bit too far for his liking, but refuse to count him out.
Karen enters Formulated Risk at 9-1. The 5yo son of Beat Hollow spent the first half of his career running on the grass, racking up five wins and over $100k from 17 starts. His breeder was dissatisfied with the colt and dropped him into a $30k claimer, where he was promptly snapped up by Steve, manager of the Beefcake Stables. Since then the horse has earned over $1million and won three stakes including the G3 Saints Handicap in March. Not a bad ROI at all. Risk has been winless since that G3 win, but he has run second four times in graded company. The most recent placing was last time out in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Risk came from midpack to finish second about three lengths behind Awegustus. Steve doesn’t think his horse can overcome the force that is SuperPeg, but he feels Risk has earned his way in here with those great graded placings. The trainer acknowledged winning this race would be a tall order for Risk, but he’s been within four lengths of SuperPeg and three of Awegustus, so he’s certainly got the talent and class to take a shot.
Also at 9-1 is Saver’s Privileged. Unlike many of his foes, Privileged has has a very light year. This will be just his seventh start of 2007. One might think that leaves the 4yo Gone West colt unprepared for the race, but this is a horse that thrives on widely-spaced races. Privileged has always been a good horse, as is obvious if you note he’s won G1s three years running (at 7f as a 2yo, a mile as a 3yo, and 9f this year). This year, however, he’s really shown he’s got something special. Privileged has finished fifth or better in all races since January, winning the G1 BillGulch Kentucky Challenge on Sim History Day and placing in three more grades at 9f. As a 3yo, he was sixth by 11 in the New Yorker, ninth by six lengths in the Eddie Haskell, and fifth by 14 in the Breeders Cup Classic. Some might think there are some serious distance issues facing Privileged give that record, but Dixiedotco said that “the way he finishes at 9f gives me confidence” that the horse can get the job done.
The other half of PazJazz’s dynamic duo is the on-fire GracepointePrayer, entered at 7-1 odds. Named for the trainer’s church, Gracepointehas some serious heavenly mojo propelling him to a great 4yo campaign. After23 starts, Gracepointe has already amassed nine wins for just over a half-millionin earnings. His two graded wins were the G2 Abe Lincoln and G1 Farewell to CryptoZot.The Farewell, a 10f race, saw Gracepointe win by over three lengths with a huge115SP to set a new stakes record. In five total starts at 10f, he’s 2-2-1. Agreat record for such a good youngster. Gracepointe’s biggest asset here is howhe loves to run: anyway he has to. He can stick just behind the lead. He canrun from midpack. He has yet to try going from the back, but given the depthof closers in this race, he should have smooth sailing closer to the lead. Thisis the horse I most fear.
The second betting choice, 6-1 on the morning line, is no slouch. I’m probably biased, as Solar Song is my star racehorse, but his record-tying Breeders Bowl Classic win last year is proof positive that the old boy is seriously talented. Unfortunately, and despite my best efforts, the 5yo son of Deputy Minister has not duplicated his 4yo exploits this year. Sure, he still managed to get into the race as the #2 older horse, and he did win a pair of grades this year and took the Smackdown with a career-high 118SP, but there’s no question he’s not the same horse that held off Ermington Pegusus by 2 1/2 lengths in the big race one year ago. That doesn’t mean he should be counted out. he prepped marvelously in a G1 last out to win at 10f by over 3 lengths and posted a 112SP. I normally prep in easy listed races, but he needed the points from a G1 after some dismal losses over the year including in the Sand Castle Classic and CA Classic. Solar Song could win, or he could blow the race entirely. In his corner is jockey F Gossett, who is 2-for-2 including the huge Classic win.
The one horse mentioned by nearly everyone who has offered their opinion on this race to me is the 4-1 favorite Ermington Pegusus. His nickname, SuperPeg, aptly describes just how special Pigeon3’s colt is. He was a solid racehorse last year, but his second in the Classic was the start of a long string of excellent races. SuperPeg won the g1 KyH Derby in December, the G2 Toilet Scrubbers Anonymous in January, the G1 California Handicap and G1 Sand Castle Classic in March, the Maryland Special in May, and the G1 Michael-Strike in June. The six-race streak of graded wins was unprecedented in the dirt classic division. Many wondered if the Sky Mesa colt was invincible. The answer came in the form of a flashy Red Ransom mare named Intenttodistribute. Pye’s top distaffer took on the boys in the Movieland Shiny and shocked the crowd by wiring the field. A mare winning the big race was big news, but beating SuperPeg by a half-length was huge. Now that the sim knew SuperPeg was a mortal, there was somewhat less hesitancy to challenge the big hoss in the CA Classic. Once again, however, SuperPeg came up short, this time losing by almost five behind King Of The Wind and Mambo Bones. As rumors and questions swirled about SuperPeg’s fitness leading into the Sim World Cup Classic, the trainer kept his own counsel, choosing to let the horse make his own statement on-track. Make a statement he did with a huge 118SP for a 2-length win over runnerup Passing Stone and third-place horse Gracepointe Prayer. And that ability to win when it counts is exactly why Ermington Pegusus is the favorite for the 2007 Breeders Bowl Classic.
And the winner is ….
There are lots of ways we could try to pick the winner. Based on the history of the race, here are a few angles to consider:
Name: A Song seems to help the winner. Try Solar Song or Be Auror Song. Or perhaps think about name length. All past winners have had names of at least two words. Toss Waymart, Awegustus, and Privileged.
Triple Jewel record: Every 3yo Classic winner won the Middle Jewel the same year. That bodes well for Awesome Force. A case could also be made for Fly For Buda, winner of the 2005 Middle Jewel.
Prep race: How a horse prepares for the Classic can affect it’s big-race performance. Five of the past winners lost their Classic prep. Two of them won G1s. Two prepped on grass. Two prepped in listed stakes. There really is no apparent optimal prep race type, though losing does seem to offer a slight advantage.
Running style: Gatling Prospector is the only horse to ever wire the Classic field. The most common (three of eight winners) winning running style is to close from well back. Solar Song, Ermington Pegusus, Awesome Force, Privileged, and Awegustus best fit this profile.
Age: Three three-year-olds have won the Classic. The rest have been four or older. That suggests that while Passing Stone, Awesome Force, Waymart, Be Auror Song, and Triple A Prayer all have chances, they are less likely to win thanthe older set.
Odds: The longest winning odds is 12.5-1 (Gatling Prospector as the eighth betting choice in 1999). A favorite has won just once. The second betting choice has won three times. Strongly consider Solar Song , but don’t count out Gracepointe Prayer, Privileged, Ermington Pegusus, Fly For Buda, Formulated Risk, and Awegustus.
Post: Post seems not to matter much in this race. Tuff Enough and Solar Song share the stakes record; the former won from the far outside and the latter from the rail position. If anything, being more outside might be more advantageous as five of the eight winners have won from post eight or farther out.
Jockey: No jockey has yet earned two Classic wins. If you think a jockey with a Classic win to his name has an advantage, check out Solar Song (F Gossett rode to victory last year), Otto Causes (N Lawton took Call Of The Wild to the winner’s circle in 2005), and Fly For Buda (H Harzheim rode Tuff Enuff in 2004)
Race return: Never has a horse repeated a win in the Classic. Toss Solar Song. Several horses have come back after a first attempt to win. Consider Fly For Buda, Ermington Pegusus, and Privileged.
Prize money: The purse for the Breeders Bowl Classic is a huge $5 million. The winner takes home a paycheck of $3 million. Not bad for two minutes galloping around track. If Solar Song wins, that would put him just $85k away from breaking Joe Cayenne’s record as the sim’s leading money earner of all time. A win by Ermington Pegusus would put that colt about $600k away from Joe’s record. Awesome Force would have his earnings more than doubled to just under $6 million. Fly For Buda would move up to just under $7 million. All of these fourteen horses could put the winner’s share to good use, but even the prize money availablefor fifth place (100k) is a significant chunk of change.
Residency connections: Five of the 14 entrants are GR Simsters connections. On sheer numbers alone, it’s a good bet that one of those five (Passing Stone, Fly For Buda, Solar Song, Awegustus, and Otto Causes) will win.
Top SP: These horses have all posted great speed figures. The best of the best, however, is Solar Song’s 118.751 earned in the Smackdown. Ermington Pegusus is second on the list at 118.391 earned in the SWC.
The fright factor : I asked trainers which horse they are most scared of in this race. The one name mentioned over and over is Ermington Pegusus. You don’t get that kind of fearful respect without earning it the hard way. Even so, one trainer noted that ErPeg’s recent losses indicate a potential chink in his armor. A few other horses tossed out as ones to watch were Awegustus, Fly For Buda, Passing Stone, Solar Song, and Paz’s duo.
If I had my way, Solar Song would win by a sixteenth. Alas, I don’t control those things, and don’t believe he will win in this tremedously talented group. Place, perhaps, but not win. Gracepointe Prayer, Passing Stone, Awegustus, and SuperPeg are the quartet I think most likley to fill out the trifecta.