The Breeders Bowl Filly and Mare Turf

Fourteen of the world’s top mares have put up with the indignity of shipping to America’s Armpit, New Jersey, to compete in the crown jewel of racing. These brave ladies will compete over a distance of 11 furlongs on the grass. Almost half the field are sophomores, 8 of them are in their prime at 4-5, and a single mare stands out as the only six-year-old.

1 NERF HERDER Fatflab 9/1

Fatflab’s not-at-all-scruffy-looking mare has been running beautifully of late, but has been making her name at 12+ furlongs. The last time she went 11 panels she finished second in an overnight stakes in slower time than she’ll need here. On the other hand, she’s only really started excelling in recent races, so her recent maturity could give her a boost even at a distance a bit shorter than she prefers. She has one of the weaker jockeys in the field, though he’s still competent. In the end, I like her better going a little bit further. Don’t write her off even in this race, but I just can’t quite get excited about her in a relatively short (for her) race, with a relatively weak jockey, in such a strong field.

2 MAADLY Claimace 23/1

Claimace’s Manila filly is the longest shot in the field, but don’t ever tell her the odds. She’s also the most lightly-raced mare in the field, with only 8 starts under her belt. She earned a trip here off seconds in the Oaks de English and the WC Survivor. At this distance, she has only a couple of seconds in allowance company. Though she’s accomplished a huge amount in a short time, this is not the distance where she’s done her best work and this is by far the toughest field she’s faced. She has yet to manage a triple-digit speed figure, which will be absolutely necessary in this race. I like her a lot as a marathon specialist, but I don’t think this is going to be her day. Still, I’ll look forward to seeing what she does in the marathons as a four-year-old!

3 DYNAHIGH Burnin 9/1

Dynahigh will represent the Oneworld empire this weekend. The High Chaparral five-year-old has 38 races under her belt, including two graded wins this year. Most relevant was her win in the 11-furlong Grade I Queen Cersei. It was a stylish win, in which she stalked then forced her way to the front. She won in 2:16 1/5 and a 104 speed figure – a time that should make her competitive. She also had a strong race recently in Vermont, a nice place to race, though you will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy (no, really, I love my fellow Vermonsters. And you should see our cantina!). The downside is that that race had a small and not overly impressive field. Her other graded win was the ten furlong Barbara Bush, again versus a small field. Her other graded starts this year haven’t been as impressive, leading me to think that the caliber of the field may be too much for her.

4 CLEVER EMPRESS Pjlracing 11/1

The filly from Pedro’s Racing Empire has been all over the place in recent starts. She totally dominated in the Smackdown at 11 panels, but fell flat in the more recent Grade II Spankie-Sho All Comers at the same distance. She’s had an easy allowance win to regain confidence and her connections say that she’ll try her best to regain that Smackdown form. Fortunately for her, few of the other top contenders seem too interested in running at the front – she may be able to fly solo on the lead from beginning to end.

5 GOIN LONG Azul25 20/1

Bizalls’ mare is a veteran of 43 starts at the ripe old age of six. She may look old to the young whippersnappers in the race, but when six years old they reach, look as good they will not. Lately she’s been running mostly in overnight stakes and doing well, but this is a huge step up from that. The old gal has never hit the board in a graded race, so I don’t expect her to start now, but it’s fun to let her go out with a bang. She’s worked hard and well over her long career and has earned her moment in the spotlight. She’s a bargain-bred overachiever and her trainer says that “she’s sharp, has a great jock and a stakes win over the track. Hopefully all the bargain breeders will be rooting for her.”

6 THE DEUCE Fairhaven3 19/1

Fairhaven’s talented gal has shown that she can run well against those her own age, having finished second in both the Adelaide Oaks and the Oaks de English. She’s had disappointing races in both the Smackdown and the World Cup, but other than that she’s been strong and consistent. I’m not really sure what to make of her – she’s done very well in some very competitive races and thrown in the towel in others. I suspect it’s going to take a consistently tough horse to win this one, but with her best effort she could do some damage. She’ll try to come from just off the pace and if she can stay on target, she could end up doing some damage.

7 NORSE PRINCESS Ninerdust 5/1

Then we come to Norse Princess, the intimidating co-favorite. Ranked only tenth in her division, she has become an unstoppable force in her recent starts. The daughter of Sadler’s Wells has won 6 of her last seven, all but one of those races being graded stakes. Her trainer says he is “really shocked she is ending up here,” but “she is a late bloomer. Always thought she had lots of talent, but just seemed to come up short against the better competition. This year she just really responded to everything we did with her. Regardless of what happens on Saturday, it was a great year. She is by far the best filly I have owned or bred.” She is in incredible form and the other fillies will surely be taking aim at her. But if they do strike her down, she will become more powerful than they can possibly imagine.

8 KNEEL BEFORE ZOD Willyam40 13/1

This sophomore daughter of Rock Hard Ten is one of the most impressive young fillies out there and has been fairly consistent. She won the Adelaide Oaks and the Smackdown, then run a solid fifth against her elders in the World Cup. Her best races have been at 12 furlongs, but she hasn’t had a chance at 11 yet and has run competitively in graded company at distances as short as nine. She likes to come from way back and truely flies in the stretch.  A young and smallish mare amidst a field of bruisers, some might say this little one’s not worth the effort.  But I think she’s shown a lot of grit and could surprise some of the naysayers by getting herself a paycheck.

9 LAPHROIG Waremblem8 11/1

Named after a scotch that ages well, this Tapit mare’s trainer says that “I know she has a lot of fight in her. Her stretch drive where she rallied and fought all the way was one of the guttiest performances I’ve ever seen from one of my horses.” Her impeccable run in the Flower Pot last time out gave her trainer a new hope after she disappointed in the Smackdown at this distance. She’s won two in a row and (with the exception of the Smackdown) hasn’t been off the board in a long time. Her jockey is top-notch and should help her to run well from at or near the front.

10 SET THE CLOCK Deantroops 9/1

This Mineshaft sophomore is coming off a respectable third in the Spankie-Show All Comers at this distance. She’s been solid against her elders and usually comes home with a paycheck. The winner of the Oaks de English, she followed up with a very close second in the Crumble. But as she headed to the Smackdown, the Sim Gods smacked her down with the message “Don’t get cocky” as she finished a disappointing sixth. She’s been doing a bit better more recently, but hasn’t quite reestablished her Oaks-winning form. A good performance could get her up for a paycheck, but she’ll need all the help her jockey can give her.

11 MAGICAL MIA Boots 5/1

The number-one ranked long turf mare comes to the race with an impeccable record and an impeccable jockey. Kingab’s mare – who is named after Mike’s daughter — got her first Grade I win in the recent World Cup, but has also hit the board in some very impressive races. At 5/1, she’s looking very strong, but “The big fear I have in this race is that it might not be far enough for her. She is at her absolute best at 16f. She is truly a marathon mare. She is 3 for 3 at 11f, but she has never faced a field this good at this shorter distance.” But when asked if she might be one to toss for this race because of the distance, Kingab responded, “I find your lack of faith disturbing.”

12 GETALOADOFTHIS Fab19 9/1

Fab’s mare recently brought down several mares from this field in the Grade II Spankie—Show All Comers, running a truly stellar race. She ran a strong second in the Grade II Empire State and has won on this track at very nearly this distance. She likes to sit just a bit off the pace, then drive a wedge between early leaders as they tire. The distance suits her beautifully, so her biggest question will be the class – she hasn’t run against this caliber a lot. Still, I think she looks pretty strong coming into this race.

13 CACHE Misery 7/1

This Horse Chestnut mare is a consistent regular on the graded circuit, almost always hitting the board, though wins have been elusive for her lately. She’s always there for the big dances and you couldn’t ask for a more reliable hores to round out your trifecta. She always tries hard, but in this big race she will have to do or do not. There is no try.

14 DANZING THEATRE Wabred1 16/1

Last but not least is Snappa’s Theatrical mare, a narrow winner over Nerf Herder and Cache in the World Cup Marathon. The three-year-old has also run well in the Smackdown and the Oaks de English, hitting the board in each. Bad news is that I think this race is just a little short for her. Her best efforts have come at 12+ furlongs and while she is no slouch at 11, she hasn’t yet shown the turn of foot she’d need to be in the top ranks here. I like her a lot going a bit longer, but for this race, this isn’t the filly you’re looking for. Move along, and find yourself a better bet.

Looks like a spectacular race. I’ve been looking forward to this for a long time, as have all these trainers. Finally, all their hard work has a chance to pay off. I hope the trainers will excuse me for having a little fun with the write-up — I was inspired by the name of one of the horses (and possibly my cold meds).

Good luck, and may the force be with you!