Cavalcade Cup Turf
The 4th running of the Cavalcade Cup Turf Classic features a return of Confederacy to the race it won in 2005 with a record setting 102 rating. As many of you remember last year’s champ was Song Dancer (99) that went wire to wire. This beauty shocked the NWRC residency as it had once been a low claimer and its first and only stakes win is the Cavalcade Cup Turf Classic. This Saturday expect and exciting race that should have one of the great finishes of all-time.
PP #1 LOCATION MANAGER
This 3YO is hard to judge since it broke its maiden last June, but it has crushed the allowance condition races at up to 1 1/4M with an average of 100. Its last race was only two weeks ago but it seemed to have a lot of energy left in the tank as it has an average of a 2 ½ length win in its last three races. This will be one of the many closers in this race as I expect to sit back about 7 lengths off the lead into the turn where it will hope to move to within 3 lengths of the leader as they head into the stretch before it shows its big kick. A couple of drawbacks; this will be its first race at today’s distance, and its breeding shows a speed rated dosage. The stamina seems to come from its mare side, so this is an interesting to horse to evaluate.
PP #2 HIGH FOREVER
High Yield x Groom Dancer
This 6YO broke its maiden in it’s first attempt as a 2YO only then to struggle in the allowance conditions before O/T wbrv dropped him down into the claimers. A win in a $5K claimer woke this horse. In the spring of this year the decision to switch this horse to 11+ furlongs six races back has resulted in 5 wins and one second. Now most of these races have been in the claimers and starter allowance races, but it has proved that it can handle today’s distance. This frontrunner will attempt to wire the field, but I still think it will only be able to manage a 95 which will allow the closers to make a run on it in the stretch.
PP #3 THE GREAT GLEN
Eavesdropper x
O/T punter75 picked up this beauty in a $2K claimer. In its last 11 races it has nine wins and one third cashing checks in high priced claimers, starter allowances and in the allowance conditions. Last out this 4YO lost in a 1 3/4M stakes race, but posted a nice 95 rating. The step up in class will probably be a little much for this horse, but I expect to see this horses’ name as the winner of other stakes races in the future.
PP #4 CONFEDERACY
High Yield x Caerleon
If this 5YO’s breeding sounds familiar it is, as this is the third child of Con Unit to be running in today’s NWRC Cavalcade Cup. O/T dawqpound has truly enjoyed this horse as it has earned already $2.6M and it is the winner of 05 Cavalcade Cup Turf Classic by 2 ¼ lengths with a 102 rating. It did finish 3rd in both the 1 1/4M and 1 1/2M NWRC Triple Crown races as a 3YO for races on the dirt, but has since been a terror on the turf. In 06 it also won the Grade II Shimko Classic, the Grade I The Long Walk and the Grade I The Penn
PP #5 SIM KING
Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells
This is one of the most expensively bred horses in today’s race and has struggled to reward O/T kobras3 the success as it had hoped until recently. After breaking its maiden in 05 it took 10 races for it to win an allowance condition race. It would take another 13 races for this 4YO to win another allowance race, but as of late it has come alive. It has won 3 of its last four races in the allowance conditions at 12+ furlongs and two races back it posted a very nice 99. The last race, 2 weeks ago, should be discounted as it finished a distant fourth at 1 5/16 on an off track. If the track is listed as firm this horse should be a major contender the NWRC Turf Classic.
PP #6 EL KURSAAL
Unbridled’s Song x A.P. Indy
This 3YO’s first 9 races were on the dirt which included an 8th place finish in last year’s Cavalcade Cup Juvenile. The switch to turf has resulted in only one win but 7 in the money finishes mostly at today’s distance. In the Smackdown III this colt finished an impressive 3rd with a 97. In its last race it finished second in the Grade II Longchamp
PP #7 THE UNDERSTUDY
Theatrical x Bahri
This 2-time winner of stakes races has only four wins in its career but has earned nearly $250K for O/T sykesy. It has struggled lately not finding the winners circle in its last 18 races which were mostly listed stakes or graded stakes races. In its last 18 races it has finished in the money in 10 of those races. It is expected to run about a 96 rating Saturday even though it has only attempted two races at this distance or longer. Expect to see this horse to be about mid-pack 5 to 7 lengths off the leaders as they turn for home and hopefully its last race at 11 furlongs will not re-occur as it faded badly in that one.
PP #8 MANDON UTOPIA
Khalkevi x Northern Baby
O/T ruok is a owner that I hope to copy as it claimed today’s contestant in a $15K claimer and then brought it slowly racing in starter allowances and a couple of stakes races before turning it lose on the stakes competition. This 7-time winner of stakes races is expected to be at the back of the pack 10-12 lengths at the second call and only 5-7 lengths back as they turn for home. The last race, which was on the dirt, was not a true showing of its potential. In its last win three races back at Saturday’s distance resulted in a rating of 102. The 5 weeks of rest and liking of this distance makes this a true threat for Confederacy as I expect it to easily post a 101.
PP #9 VINDA TATE
Vindication x Bold But Valid
O/T bigtate03 has been very patient with this horse as it took 19 races for it finally break its maiden with a 79, then followed that win up with two more wins with a 92.5 average. In the Smackdown III at 1 1/2M it was distanced and it was outrun last out in a stakes race at 1 3/16. This will be its third attempt at 1 1/2M and hasn’t fared well in any of the previous two races. It is well rested with being away from the track for 8 weeks. Today’s race might be a little much for this 4YO.
The in the money speed rating on Saturday should somewhere be between 97 and 102. Many of these horses have that capability and could break the speed record on Saturday. Don’ look for the speedsters to be able hold out for the 12 furlongs, so on Saturday the battle should be between Confederacy and Mandor Utopia.
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