Big Race Preview BB Juvy Races
The young stars of the future take center stage this week in four of the biggest races in the sim for two year olds. This is the first year that the World Cup races where run so it will be very interesting to see their impact on this weeks races. As in real life winners of a Juvy races do not always turn out to be good three year olds but when you look through the fields you see many big names. In the 2004 BB Juvy Turf you had General’s Chariot,
Just going back to last year Awesome Force who will run in the Classic this year ran sixth in the Juvenile last year and went on to win two legs of the triple crown. The Juvenile fillies last year also produced a triple winner in Catherineofaragorn, who finished fifth in last year’s Juvenile Filly and will run again this weekend in the Distaff.
This week do not miss the individual articles on the races the writers really go all out for this truly special event. Good Luck to all who have runners this week.
Race: 3385.0909 Breeders Bowl Juvenile – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 2 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
Those boys and gal from the Super Stables have a red hot two year old that is the morning line favorite. Broadway Dancer looks like the real deal. He has won three of four starts thus far as a two year old. His only stumble came in his second career start in a grade three sprint. He would go on to win a grade three at a mile by a head and take the first running of the World Cup. His speed figures are top notch, his breeding in top notch, and his training crew are no strangers to big races so there is a ton to like here. He likes to stay close to the pace and should get a good stalking trip. It looks like it will take a hell of an effort to beat him this week.
Ghost in a Dancer is the second choice on the morning line. Some might look at his last race in the World Cup and think he is over rated here as the second choice. Look closer he went into that race on three weeks rest after winning a grade two race. Asking a two year old to turn around on three weeks rest is very difficult especially at the top level so do not put too much into his last race. He is a closer type and will likely be toward the back of the pack early. The history of the race tells us you want to be close to the pace here but if he runs his race he should be there in the stretch.
Banking fever brings a modest pedigree and a near perfect record into this race. A son of Strike the Gold, has won five of six starts so far as a two year old. He has been running nice speed figures since July unlike most in this race. He set the pace in a few races but last time out in his first route race he sat off the early pace and pounced his way to a one length win in the grade two
Garden Society really established himself as a top two year old last time out. He steadily developed this year, winning his maiden first time out, winning an allowance, placing in a stakes and then getting his first graded win on the stretch out in distance. As the distances have gotten longer he has gotten better. His last race was a great run with a top speed figure earning a 96 speed figure. He came from seven lengths back last time out and closed very well to win the grade two Darling Squash Futurity. The spacing of races should not be a problem this one looks very live if the pace falters here.
The Gun Went Off is a very interesting runner. I do not like the fact he comes into the race having last raced September first. History tells us it is too long a layoff to win this race. None the less he is undefeated, well bred, and trained by a trainer familiar with the big races. This colt could be that runner that might run mid pack and absolutely explode as a three year old. You must respect any runner coming into a race undefeated. His blood lines scream route races. He comes from from out of the clouds though and that has not been a favorable running style in the history of this event. Still a horse to keep an eye on during the race.
Race: 3385.0908 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Filly – Grade I – $1,000,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 2 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Dirt
We have three ladies vying for favoritism in this event. Appeal This, CK Ghost Prospect, and Mean Girl are all seven to one on the morning line. Of the three only Mean Girl has run in a route race to get to this point. Of the eight previous runnings of this race three times a filly has won making her route debut so coming into this race with no route experience does not seem to be a big negative factor. Another interesting fact about this field is that only one runner has less than five career starts entering this race and most of them have six or more starts as two year olds so far.
Mean Girl has three wins a maiden, a listed stakes and last time out she took the grade two Walnut Tree by three lengths. Her speed figure in the Walnut Tree was an impressive 95 her best so far. She seems to be in her element at this distance and will likely lay pretty close to the early pace. She was no more than three lengths from the pace last time I would imagine she gets a similar trip this weekend. There will be speed in the race as one of her co favorites, Appeal This, will likely set the pace so she appears to be well positioned to make a strong run on Saturday.
Appeal This is by Successful Appeal who produces great two year olds in real life and he has a great one here in the sim as well. She has never been worse than second in five lifetime starts. She looked pretty strong last time out taking the grade one Getaway Stakes where she won pretty easy all things considered. Distance is her largest question mark. She will very likely be on the pace here and as a two year old even if she turns out to be a sprinter they can often get this distance as two year olds. Must respect the speed.
CK Ghost Prospect has not run in a route yet either. Her speed figures are an interesting study. While breaking her maiden and running in listed stakes company her speed figures look very average with 69,74,79, and 68. She won all those races and the 68 was just in August where she won by two and a half lengths. Now put her in grade one races and look out she has earned a 91 and an 89. She lost by a head while earning the 91 and won by a nose earning the 89. There appears to be no doubt she shows up for the big events and with her running style I am not sure why she has not run in a route to this point. She comes from off the pace and should enjoy the stretch out. She could be a little closer to the pace here you would think and looks to have a good shot to win this.
A long shot here was hard to find but Given appears to have a solid long shot. Oasis Nine has drawn the rail and will make her fist start off a layoff which would be about the only negative I can find. Given took advantage of the stakes points rules to get this filly a trip to the Breeder’s Bowl. She won her last race against the boys in a listed stakes race and was pretty impressive in her win. That win earned her sixteen stakes points the same as winning a grade three in a filly restricted race. She likes to be near the front and will probably get a good trip just off the pace. If she is ready to fire her best she could be a threat.
Race: 3385.0907 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf – Grade I – $750,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 2 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Turf
A very contentious field of fourteen runners are entered for the Juvy Turf. The favorite is seven to one and the longest shot is sixteen to one so there is not a whole lot separating this field from top to bottom. We have co favorites that have drawn next to each other in the starting gate with Kepler Tokyo and The Stardust neither of which looks like serious contenders in this race.
Kepler Tokyo has yet to run in a route and his speed figures are a bit below what others in this race have already run in some route races. He is coming off a very nice win at the World Cup event in the Juvy Turf Sprint. He has been close to the pace in his sprints so I suspect he will be close if not on the pace in this race, distance is likely an issue for him.
The Stardust has yet to win a graded race. He had a nice second two back in the grade one High Flyer and came back to run third in the grade one Knick Knack. He comes into this race on three weeks rest, after only four weeks between starts in the races before that. It is hard for me to believe he is sharp and ready for a top effort in this race. He will be part of the pace which looks to be quick this weekend.
Manatee Bad Boy should likely be the favorite in this race. He comes off a win in the World Cup at a mile where he earned a very nice 91 speed figure. He has won four of his six career starts with a pair of seconds. Best of all his running style will put him off the pace which is likely to be pretty quick. That seems to set him up very well for a run at the World Cup, Breeder’s Bowl double.
GoldFriars impresses me. Over the summer he took a grade three sprint and was runner up in another grade three sprint. The class question was already answered so he took an easy path to get here by running in listed stakes. He had two of those in which he won comfortably each time by more than two lengths earning solid speed figures. He is proven at the distance and has a running style that puts him off the pace. That seems ideal this Saturday so look for him to have a good showing.
Call me crazy but I really like sixteen to one Idol Worship. It took him four tries to break his maiden but once he got that out of the way he has been impressive. He won a listed stakes and then last time out made a courageous late run to win the grade three Flying Saucer by a quarter length. He charged from last to first in that event and will be at the back of the pack here as well. He has pace to chase and could light the board up.
Race: 3385.0906 Breeders Bowl Juvenile Turf Filly – Grade I – $750,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 2 years old
Distance: A mile and one sixteenth on the Turf
We have a fairly heavy favorite in undefeated Flowerats. This filly looks absolutely wonderful. She would probably be the favorite if she where facing the boys today. She is a perfect five for five in her young career. She has three graded stakes wins already including a very nice win last time out in the World Cup event. She has never even been threatened in any of her races and has shown the versatility to set the pace or come from off the pace. She has a pair of 90+ speed figures already. She will probably be just off the pace this Saturday and looks like one of the strongest favorites on the card.
Fourteen to one Thunderlips is an interesting runner. She is undefeated a perfect four wins from four starts. She earned her way here taking advantage of the stakes points rules and beating the boys in a listed stakes in her last race. She broke her maiden and won a couple of allowances before taking on the boys last time out. She has solid speed figures but because she has won fairly comfortably in her starts she seems plenty capable of running a low to mid 90’s speed figure. She likes to be on the front end of the race and that could be a nice place to be in this race.
Watch Your Back is another undefeated runner that took the path of least resistance to make this field In her first three starts her speed figures where really not very impressive. 66,63, and 55 are not speed figures that you would make you think Breeder’s Bowl Juvy Filly Turf contender. It was her last start in a listed stakes where she stalked the pace and made a very nice run winning by almost two lengths that made you raise your eyebrows. She earned an 82 speed figure in that effort and seems very capable of improving to the low to mid nineties in this race.
Xtra Dynaform is another long shot and this one likes to come from way off the early pace. She has won three of four career starts including last time out in the grade one Filly Grand Prix. Coming into that race her speed figures where not all that impressive with 69,68, and 68. She won the Grand Prix by closing from nine lengths off the pace to win by almost two lengths earning an 83 speed figure. She should have some pace to run at here and in another runner that looks to be in a good position for a good effort.