A Big Hill Will Take It Out of You

A big hill will take it out of a runner.  And a punter, it seems.  Take a look at the past five runnings of Washington’s Grade II Big Hill Stakes.  Only once in the past five years has the winner of this seven furlong race for two year olds been among the top three betting choices.  Never in the race’s history has the winner entered off of a stakes win.

It’s even questionable that it’s in the horse’s best interest to win this race.  The past five winners have combined to run an additional 129 times.  In those 129 races, they have amassed zero graded stakes wins and only three listed stakes wins.

So profound is the Big Hill jinx, that no jockey, much less trainer, has ever been able to win the race twice.

This year’s edition features a colt whose earnings and ranking tower over the rest of the field.  Even so it may pay to look elsewhere.

On a personal note, I just got back from observing the auction last week.  I learned I am the only one around here who doesn’t have $1 million to throw around.

Here is a look at the field:

1.     Gilded Edge(Ky) (Gilded Time x Cutlass x Baederwood) trained by hwhisper (Whisper Stables, 21%), Odds: 5-1

We come to the big issue right away.  The World Cup races were split among several tracks.  The boy sprinters ran in Vermont; the girls ran in Minnesota.  The girls were faster, even down to the third place girl – this one.  Whoever said you can’t compare apples to oranges never tried to handicap a horse race, much less assemble a fruit salad. Is she really faster than the favorite, or was it a factor of the track or the tighter finish? Your call, but there is more value here.

2.     Spreading Chaos(Ky) (Smarty Jones x El Prado x Unbridled)  trained by super25 (More Evilest Evil Stables, 21%), Odds: 8-1

The Supers always bring the well-bred ones to the contest.  They’ve been keeping this one on the grass in honor of the El Prado connections, but so far Smarty Jones has done much better on the dirt than on the grass, so this one may bring a lot of chaos as he tries the surface for the first time.  Last time was the first time he was unable to make the early lead, and he did not like it at all.  Look for him to be gunning early, and there isn’t much other early speed to stop him.  Impossible to rule out, but hard to pick on top until he has a dirt start.

3.     Beam and Coke(Ky) (Victory Gallop x Cat Thief x Third World)  trained by jarrod3 (Corza Stables, 7%)  Odds: 28-1

Last time he went turf to dirt, he responded with a win.  That win, followed by an upset allowance win encouraged barn to stick him in graded stakes and leave him there. Despite three straight poor performances, they try again.  Even thought this has been a race for longshots, it’s hard to get excited about his chances.  The turf-to-dirt angle may work for a minor award at best.  Unless you are betting after a few Beams and Cokes of course.

4.     Full Force(Ky) (Smarty Jones x Storm Cat X Seattle Slew) trained by zboro (Tees Stables, 11%)  Odds: 7-2

Second choice in the betting got selected for the World Cup team off a maiden win.  He stayed on the heels of Swiftsure right up until the end, when he finished with interest but was no match.  After only three races, and with his breeding, he is surely eligible to turn the tables on that one and would surprise no one.  Dam won two stakes early in her three-year-old campaign.  That adds to the intrigue here.

5.     Darrentwilliamsrip(Ky) (Borrego x Empire Maker x Dodge)  trained by congaree3 (Demoney Stables, 8%)  Odds: 16-1

He hasn’t earned a stakes point yet.  He’s finished ahead of six horses in his last four races.  The breeding is affordable, to be kind. His 14-1 maiden win was his only finish in the money in all six lifetime starts. You know this is the type of bet I have to try to talk you into.  Here goes: The speed figures are showing gradual improvement.  He has a decent jockey who won the inaugural running of the Big Hill.  And I would love to hear a track announcer call “And flying on the outside is darrentwilliamsrip….”

6.     Swiftsure(Ky)  (Dehere x Forty Niner x Danzig)  trained by sanchez (Bigkev and Bjbandit Farms, 18%)  Odds: 3-1

The committees that chose the World Cup fields surely had their hardest time choosing the two-year-old runners.  Of course the nominees had limited experience, especially in graded stakes.  They were able to find two that were graded winners, this one and Pyralis, and it was no surprise when they finished one-two.  None of the other runners have run since, so we still don’t know just how strong the field was.  What we do know is that this number two rated two year old faces a field where he is the only graded winner, where his four wins in five starts is unsurpassed, where his lifetime earnings exceed the total of all but one of the other entrants.  If we have to try to find reasons for him to lose, we’ll note that Gilded Edge ran a faster speed figure last time, and that Swiftsure’s figure did not improve last time.

7.     Sisson’s Zapper(Ky) (Ghostzapper x Weekend Cruise x Raise a Native)  trained by v8mullet (Binzaman, 12%)  Odds: 12-1

Lightly race Ghostzapper son looked good beating a full field in Dubai last time to break his maiden.  Class jump is formidable and his best speed figures are ten points shy of others in here, but connections are not intimidated.  They saw the rest of the field before entering him in this race.  Dam won five stakes, but four of them came in turf routes.  We’ll watch for him down the road.

8.     Indy Prospector(Fl) (Indy King x Broad Brush x Mr. Prospector) trained by mayflowers (Fortune500, 24%) Odds: 5-1

He was in the mix in the two-turn Grade II Darling-Squash Futurity until fading near the end, so high-percentage barn backs him off a furlong to a distance where he owns a stakes win.  He has speed figures that match any in here and gets a good jockey.  Major player here who should just get better from here on out.

9.     Stylish(Md) (Outflanker x Lion Hearted x Diamond Prospect) trained by kindone5 (Kindone Stables, 5%)  Odds: 23-1

I have a horse who is past his prime.  He doesn’t win very often anymore, but sometimes, when he runs on a wet track, he wakes up and throws in a very good effort.  It can be frustrating training for a week and not see a cloud within shipping distance when it’s time to register for a race.  Stylish has two good races in his seven starts – both on off-tracks.  Saturday looks to be sunny and mild.  I feel for you, Kindone.

10.                       The Rare Vegemite(Ky) (Elusive Quality x Encosta de Lago x Summer Squall) trained by cjt3 (Corza Stables, 9%)  Odds: 5-1

Despite only picking up one win in his five starts, this one has a big chance here.  Maybe.  Like Spreading Chaos, he has spent his entire career on the lawn, so it’s hard to say how he’ll do here.  We do know he’s been earning checks and finishing with interest in four graded stakes and he clearly belongs with this lot.  Dam won a dirt stakes as a two-year-old, so he ought to like the surface.

Summary.  There’s not much early speed in this race.  That might help Spreading Chaos.  The fastest last race belongs to the lone filly, Gilded Edge.  The filly, Full Force, Swiftsure, and The Rare Vegemite have all shown success at this level. At first glance, Swiftsure seems to have an insurmountable class edge, but this race has always been a tough one to predict, and this year is no different.  I’ll go with Gilded Edge, Swiftsure, and Spreading Chaos.