Big Race Preview 3378

Just two grade one races on tap this week. It is the week before Breeder’s Bowl but still some very interesting action. The Coffeefields Cup has a really interesting group of talented runners gunning for a large purse. The other grade one this weekend is for three year old fillies sprinting on the turf. The race did not draw a big field but there will be some talented ladies to keep an eye on.

Race: 3378.5315 Coffeefields Cup – Grade I – $3,000,000
Track: Victoria
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one half on the Turf

A full field of runners are set to chase a large purse down under. The field is led by OttoOh No. Otto Oh No is one hell of a mile and a quarter horse. He ended last year and began this year in grand fashion winning his first five races on turf that included three grade one wins. He has earned a 117 and a 118 speed figure at the mile and a quarter distance but has yet to try a mile and a half.

He is coming off a not so good performance last time out in the World Cup. He probably has picked a good spot to go a mile and a half with all the top dogs set to run next week. We should get a good indication of whether or not he can handle the extra distance. He comes from way off the pace and has a pedigree that should handle the distance.

Freeze is a proven winner at this distance. He won the grade one Sword Swallower earlier this summer and beat a very solid group a the Smackdown. His last two races did not live up to his new standard. Last time out he faced a pretty tough field at the World Cup so you can say he is battle tested. He has not put up that 110+ speed figure but he still has room to improve. Freeze will come from way off the pace, the fact he was twenty lengths back last time out did not help. He needs to stay a bit closer to the pace here to have a chance.

Rainband is coming in off a nice second place effort in the Ark De Triumph. That was this three year olds first attempt at this distance. He has raced quite a bit with eighteen career races already but he looks to be getting better at this time. He is a player in this race and probably would not have been in the Breeder’s Bowl so the trainer looks to have made the right decision. He too comes from way off the pace where there looks to be a traffic jam.

With all the closers it makes sense to look at a horse that will most likely be on the lead. Balerion has set the pace in several races including his last two. He can sit just off the pace so if someone else decides to set the pace he is versatile enough to adapt. Last time out was a pretty solid effort. He carried a five length lead into the stretch but got caught late. With all the closers it is possible he gets away with an easy lead and makes them pay for that mistake.

Blazing Lights is a lightly raced four year old son of Sadler’s Wells. He has less career starts than his three year old counter part Rainband. What he has not done is broken through at this level. He has second place finishes in the grade one Sword Swallower the grade one Bourbon Cup at two miles and the grade two Dawn to Dusk. He has been hanging around running solid consistent races and with just fifteen career starts you would think he has the room to improve. This may be an ideal setting for him. His main competition is likely to be several lengths behind him. He will likely be mid pack early and could take advantage of the position if ready to take that step forward.   

Race: 3378.3816 I’ll Meet You Half Way Stakes – Grade I – $500,000
Track: New Hampshire
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: Six and one half furlongs on the Turf

Just seven three year old fillies enter this grade one contest lead by Mirari’s Wake. At eight to five Mirari’s Wake is a pretty heavy favorite and rightfully so because this summer she has taken a big step forward. She won a grade three in June and most recently too the grade one World Cup at seven furlongs on the turf earning a 109 speed figure. She has shown she can set the pace and she has shown she can sit off the pace so the does not appear to be too many chinks in the armor. She has won an impressive nine races from fifteen starts and will be very tough to beat on Saturday.

Freezing is a filly that could give some pace pressure to the favorite. She is a filly that has been setting the pace in mile events and cuts back to a sprint for the first time since her debut as a two year old. She has put together a nice record in route races and is running nice speed figures. It will be interesting to see what she will do on the cut back in distance and if her speed is good enough to grab the lead here.

Fort Golden is the closer of this group. Last time out in a grade two event at this distance she closed from ninth to finish a nice second. She will actually have a bit more ground to close into in this race. Her speed figures have been solid and if the favorite gets caught up in a pace dual Fort Golden is the runner that looks most likely to pick up the pieces.

Night Witch is an interesting runner. This is her stakes debut and the thing I really like about her is that she is coming off a pair of wins. Those wins occurred when she shortened up from route races to sprints. She showed good improvement with the cut back in distance. She really seems to be figuring things out and she looks like she could take that next big step forward in this race.