Canada Turf
The 8th running of the Grade I Canada Turf going 1 ½ on the turf for 3+ has had a wonderful history of former champions that have gone on to be grade A or B retired mares. The average speed for the winner has been a 111.2, but lately this race has not had the top tier horses compete. In the first six Canada Turf races an average of 7 graded stakes winners raced against each other. The last two years it has averaged only 5 graded stakes winners compete and the winner last year posted a 101.4. The record for this race is held by Rain God who posted a 115.8.
Grade I
99 Seattle Hit (115.5) who was the first retired mare taken this week (not by me, sigh) was 9-time winner of graded stakes that included the Japan Cup, South Astralian Cup and Can One Aussie Be This Silly.
00 Enough Knock (111.4) won this race wire to wire and also won the 01 Breeders Bowl Mile as one of its 14 graded stakes wins.
01 Captain Biddle (104.5) was winner of just 3 graded stakes who took the lead on the turn and won by four. In its next race it won the Grade II Cherry Limb Stakes.
02 Stormy Prospector (107.0) came from nearly seven lengths back on the turn to win by a 1 ½ in one of the closest finishes in this races history. This 9-time winner of graded races fell on hard times losing the next 20 races before retirement.
03 Forty Wool (114.5) went to wire to wire winning by 3 ¼ lengths. This also was the last win for the champion as it lost 21 in a row before retirement.
04 Rain God (115.8) went to wire winning by the largest margin at 6 ¼ lengths. This grade retired mare won 12 graded stakes including eight Grade I races. It’s wins include the
05 Jupiter’s Moons (108.8) also went to wire to wire. This 4-time graded stakes winner is also the winner of the Japan Classic.
06 Kiss of Betrayal (101.4) is the only active horse of the former champions whose only graded stakes win is the Canada Turf. This closer has struggled lately winning only one of it last 12 races.
Now for the field, which based on history a front runner has to be considered heavily.
THE GIANT’S GONE (7-1)
This 4YO colt last out lost by a length after making a great charge down the homestretch in the Grade II Horseshoe Falls Stakes. The switch to turf 11 races back has returned for O/T zooomr 5 wins and 2 places. I expect this colt to sit 5-7 lengths off the leaders before showing its big kick. This stakes winner, three races back, is racing off a six week layoff.
THUNDER (9-1)
War Chant x
O/T stretch has done a nice job of moving this 5YO through the allowance ranks. It has 3 stakes wins, but its last two graded stakes has not been as fulfilling with its best finish being a fifth, 17 lengths back. It will try to stay 2-3 lengths back but it low speed ratings of 90 concerns me. If this is an off-track, watch out it posted a 109. I’m curious if it is more suited for 9 to 10 furlongs.
BIRDS OF PREY (14-1)
Kingmambo x Nijinsky II
A front runner who posts mostly 95 to 98 speed ratings in the allowance ranks. It did finish 2nd in the Grade I Marathon Cup, but its last attempt at the graded level was a disappointing 8th after leading into the homestretch. In its four attempts at stakes races it has yet to win and today the competition might be a notch better than this horse.
FALCON JACK (11-1)
Sulamani x Gone West
An interesting bred horse that last out posted a 104. It lost that stakes race at 11 furlongs by 2 ½ lengths and definitely needed an extra furlong or so. As a 3YO it has a stakes win and this field light on graded stakes winners. A decent jock onboard and I expect this horse to be about 10-13 lengths off the leaders before it makes that massive charge down the stretch. It has the breeding to run all day, so this is one to keep an eye on.
STRONG BELWAS (5-1)
Empire Maker x Caerleon
This 4YO colt is ranked 9th in Turf Long division, but it is not the early morning line favorite. As a 3YO it won the Grade I California Turf Classic and the Grade III Saint Ledge Stakes. This year it has won two Grades I races; Fat Man’s Revenge and Movieland Turf Cup with its front running style. Three races back it faded badly in the Grade I United Countries Handicap to finish second and two weeks later was injured in the Grade I The Turf Lounge. After a 9 week layoff it had a tuner for this race four weeks ago. If this horse who has the top jock (Linville) gets out front and runs unabated it could post a speed rating between 108 and 114.
Not Impossible x
This is a true long shot that will attempt to challenge Strong Belwas for the lead Saturday. This will be its first attempt at a stakes race. O/T jrbiteme is the third O/T for this starter allowance/allowance winner who usually posts low 90 speed ratings.
DERUBARE TETE (19-1)
Rainbow Quest x Diesis
O/T pornstar claimed this 4YO colt six races back and has won four of those races. It popped a 99 in its last out, a stakes race at 1 3/4M. This colt has posted upper 90s speed numbers but a stronger sign for this horse to do well Saturday is that it has increasing numbers in its last four races. This is a dangerous sign for the favorites in this race. Keep an eye of this long shot as it will trail the leaders about 6 to 7 lengths as they turn for home.
High Chaparral x Kris S
This 3YO will be way off the leaders by 18-20 lengths. It has posted upper 90s speed ratings and won a stakes race at 11 furlongs five races back. It has fared well in a graded stakes race finishing fourth in the Grade II, The Seventh King Eddie Stakes for 3YO. It has big kick and will need it against these older horses. Jockey Cogswell will give this 3YO a very good chance to pull off an upset on Saturday.
STOP THE GROOM T (9-1)
Runaway Groom x Sadler’s Wells
The 5YO is the only mare in this race. It has posted back-to-back 100 ratings in its last two stakes races. This 8-time winner of stakes races has fallen on hard times losing 11 races in a row. It has faced graded stakes company nine times with its best finish being a second. Its going to need a big kick in the stretch as it will be about 6-8 lengths off leaders as they turn for home. A positive for this mare is that there are not a lot of horses in this field that have consistently posted triple digits.
APPIAN GOLD (9/2)
Medaglia D’Oro x Fappiano
Here is another frontrunner that is being asked to stretch out from 1 1/4M to a 1 1/2M. The last time it stretched out to today’s distance resulted in tantamount collapse in which it led by 8 furlongs and lost by 1 ¼ four races back. I look for this horse to post between a 101 to 104 this Saturday for its connections. O/T oaklawn66 showed great patience with this colt racing it in 23 non-stakes races before moving it to the stakes competition. Since the jump to stakes races it has won three and finished second twice. Its only other graded stakes race was the Grade I Windy City Turf Classic where it challenged the leader only to collapse and finish a disappointing seventh. This added distance is a problem since it has a tendency to fade.
GOLD DOORS (7-1)
Touch Gold x Once Wild
The 23rd ranked Turf Long 4YO colt has five stakes wins with four these being on the turf. It is making a massive drop in distance going from 2M to today’s distance of 1 1/2M. At the longer races it has posted 101 to 104 rating and the drop could result in a 110 or better rating if jock Renfroe (18%) can control it effectively. The last three graded stakes races saw a second and two thirds for O/T crowbar. At first I skipped over this horse but upon further study, I look for this colt to be about 5-7 lengths off the front runners as it turns for home. If the front runners get into a duel, this should allow this beauty to pass quickly the leader in the homestretch
LEFT FIELD (12-1)
Touch of the Blues x Dumaani
My picks have been said to be from left field so possibly this will be another one of those weird picks. Here is another front runner that probably needs to not challenge for the lead; since there are two other big time front runners in this race. It’s coming off two nice 1 3/4M stakes wins but with lower speed numbers than the other front runners. This one time claimer doesn’t look like it can hang with the others, but it sits back and waits it could pull off a win from left field. Don’t forget the
AMERICAN ELECTRIC (6-1)
Trempolino x Woodman
I want to start out by saying that I love this horse. It’s coming off an impressive win in the Grade II Bluegrass Cup Turf three weeks ago posting a nice 107 rating at today’s distance. The tendency for this horse is to be about 7 to 10 lengths off the leaders before it charges hard for the finish line. This lightly raced 5YO worse finish on turf is 5th when it was an off-track. O/T bewitched is hoping that a win Saturday will propel this horse high up the rankings so that it can compete in the Breeders Bowl in a few weeks.
At first glance it looks like it’s a race between Appian Gold and Strong Belwas, but there are so many good horses just waiting for their opportunity to become graded stakes winners. As I stated earlier the front runner has a history of winning this race and today there are three legitimate horses that can go wire to wire. There also are so many good stalkers and closers that I just can’t see one leaders going wire to wire. I usually go with the winner of the most stakes races but the hottest horse seems to be American Electric as it goes for back to back wins Saturday. Here are the picks after thinking about it for the past few hours. Its going to be close finish.
13 – 5 – 11 – 4