Haw Haw Derby

The 9^th running of the Haw Haw Derby will see many future stars in the 3YO division go to head at a 1 1/8M on the Turf in Illinois.  The average speed rating for the winner the last six years has been a 108.  The record for this race is held by 3-time graded stakes winner Medusa’s Blood with a 117.99.  There seems to be a lot of speed in this race with the big closers hoping for a speed duel which they can benefit from in the homestretch. 

KIRBY’S BEST YET (8-1)

Dynaformer x Forty Niner

O/T Kingkirby 3YO colt is coming off a four week rest spot after heartbreaking loss in its last stakes race.  This horse likes to go 11 to 12 furlongs and this will be its first attempt at this shorter distance.  This winner of the Grade I Sydney Derby and Derby de English won its first nine races.  This colt likes sit off the pace at about seven lengths and can post a 104-106 rating.  The jock selection of Bonsteel has won a disappointing 6% of its races this year

KEPLER LORD (5-1)

Rahy x Sadler’s Wells

This young colt has averaged a 104 rating off of its last three races going one mile to a 1 1/16M.  The added distance to Saturday’s races should benefit the morning line co-favorite.  It is coming off two straight allowance wins, yet in its four attempts at stakes competition the best finish was second.  A problem could be it is coming off of only a two rest.  It has seen a bump in the past when doing this before, but history says this horse will drop 2-3 points.

C YOU AT THE WIRE (8-1)

High Chaparral x Rainbow Quest

This is one of the few front runners in this race and winner of its last race, the Grade II Boston Derby; in which it posted an amazing 111 rating.  That last race was its first triple digit speed rating and has enjoyed its four week layoff.  This is a lightly raced horse in regards to route races.  In seven previous starts its only win was the Derby.  I look for this horse to go for the lead and with few graded stakes former winners in this race it could experience a wire to wire win.

GREELEY’S PRAYER (9-1)

Mr. Greeley x Danehill

This 3YO colt has experienced numerous changes to surface and distance.  It broke its maiden on turf but then was switched to the dirt.  O/T bongo made a switch back to turf three races back and was rewarded with three straight wins. This colt will sit about six lengths off the pace before making its move.  It has a great late kick and its last race three weeks back resulted in a 105 speed rating. 

PEPPET (8-1)

Vindication x Danzig

This 3YO colt has also experience changes to distance and surface.  It won three of its first six races on turf, but was switch to turf four races back.  This latest switch has resulted in two wins and second.  O/T financr made another switch to dirt in which it popped at 107 speed rating.  It has finished in the money in 15 of its sixteen races but it looks at mid-90s turf horse.  It does have two small stakes wins on the turf, but I see its future being on the dirt.

WOODEN MAST (14-1)

Mizzen Mast x Woodman

This long shot has drawn Logan (16%) as the jock and that makes it legitimate runner in the race.  It definitely is the tough luck kid for O/T rcdlogan as it has attempt 12 stakes races with no wins, but has finished second four times; along with 3 thirds.  In its last six of its seven races it has been in the lead or challenging for the lead as they turn for home.  In the last five it has faded.  It did break the triple digits three races back, but its numbers have been going south ever since.

YESIMALLLITUPAGAIN (34-1)

Fantastic Light x Seeking the Gold

The Grade III Theregoesmyhero winner will once again try to re-capture the glory.  In its last six stakes races since, the best finish was 9^th.  It seems better suited for races longer than 10 furlongs.  This long shot had a nice tuner in its last race posting a 97. 

GRAND TRIGGER (15-1)

Double Trigger x Intikhab

You have to love the fact that O/T karolyi stayed with this young colt since it took six races to break its maiden.  This will be its first attempt at a stakes race and will be one of the first races in recent memory that it has not been one of the early morning favorites.  This Allowance NW3X colt posted a 101 in its last race, and I expect this horse to vie for the lead.  It has led six of its last eight races, losing ground in seven of those races at 1 1/8M or longer.  I wonder what would happen in a sprint race, its going to have tough competition up front Saturday.

WAFFEL HOUSE (47-1)

More Than Ready x Metfield

This 3YO colt broke its maiden in its first race on the turf.  It’s another Allowance NW3X race horse taking a shot at a stakes race.  It’s got low speed numbers, but it seems that it might thrive going 1 1/4M or longer.  This will be its fourth attempt at a stakes win and was smoked in its last graded stakes race two races back.

RUIN (12-1)

Galileo x Kris S.

I just love this lightly raced long shot that could easily post a 100-102 rating.  Here another one of these allowance horses that has posted triple digits in two of its last three races.  This will be its second attempt at a stakes races and the first attempt was way too early in this horse’s career.  Expect this horse to sit about four lengths off the leaders and it has nice kick.  This distance suits this young colt perfectly, with a good jock on board and my love of long shots.  The five week layoff makes me think that O/T theagakhan has baby primed for victory.

DAKOTA (14-1)

You and I x Homebuilder

This 3YO colt started its career with eight races on the dirt resulting in one win.  The switch to turf resulted in 5 wins in a row.  It was outclassed in the Grade II Boston Derby last out, but also there was a switch in its running style.  I expect O/T ceclaim8 will switch back to its old pattern of being 10 lengths off the leaders.  It has two stakes wins in which it posted a nice 103 average speed rating.  Another problem is that it has faced very small fields of only about six horses, so its record could be misleading.

EUROTRASH (5-1)

Eurosilver x Storm Cat

This 3YO colt has won the Grade II Bean Sprout along with the Grade II Ascot Mile and will have the top jock on board today, Munoz (21%).  This horse has been successful on both dirt and turf winning four of its first nine dirt race which included three stakes wins.  The switch to turf was resulted in three wins in eight races with two graded wins and a stakes win.  Its last race was at this distance but on dirt so you should throw out its 94 rating.  This colt should post a 105-107 rating and be sitting seven lengths off the leaders as they turn for home, but its best form is when it is 4 lengths off the pace. 

KALEIDSCOPE EYES (8-1)

Mineshaft x Sadler’s Wells

This 3YO broke its maiden on turf has moved nicely through the allowance conditions.  It has small stakes win at this distance and has posted a 104 speed rating.  The lack of graded stakes wins makes this hard horse to decide on, I expect it will sit about 5 lengths off the pace and should make a big move.  In the Boston Derby it made a late move that caught my eye along with some of the big bettors and with rest; it could pull off a slight upset Saturday.

SUMMER IMPULSE (12-1)

Afleeet Alex x Summer Squall

This is another young colt that started its career on dirt with three wins in 9 races.  The switch to turf eight races back has rewarded O/T sprinter22 with four wins including a stakes victory.  It does have the ability to pop a 100-102 rating, but it is coming off of only two weeks rest.  This allowance horse hopes to hang about six lengths off the leaders will need to make its move a little earlier since so many of these others have a bigger kick in the stretch.

This race is light on former graded stakes winning horses.  If C You At The Wire gets to the lead and runs unabated this race is over.  Eurotrash and Kaleidscope Eyes will definitely be making big moves in the homestretch hope to catch the front runners.  I love long shots and in the last two weeks I’ve found a couple.  This week, Ruin could reward the bettors with a nice return at 12-1.

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