Posh Purse Stakes
The 8th running of Grade II Posh Purse Stakes for 3YO and up at 1 1/16M on the turf has been unkind to favorites. Historically only one odds-on favorite has won this race. Also the last two years horse with stakes wins at all were the victors. With an off track and an outstanding filly going head to head with the boys, will this race go down as one of the best on the last Saturday of September.
DRACO
Sadler’s Wells x A P. Indy
This 4YO colt comes off a nice 5 week rest after coming up short in its last graded stakes races. This former Grade III Haw Haw Derby winner has averaged a very nice 104.7 speed rating at this distance lately. The concern has to be why it has always fallen a little short in all of its stakes races lately. The jock Maire gives this colt a really good chance due to the fact that Maire has ridden others in this race but chose this one.
CANDLEPOWER
Law Society x Majestic Light
This 4YO is on its fourth O/T. As a 3YO this colt won three small stakes and has experience some success on off tracks, which today the turf will be yielding. This year has been disappointing for the multiple O/T’s and today it might break 100. The speed number today could be 108-110 though.
OTTO CAPOTE
Capote x El Gran Senor
If you’ve read my stuff lately, I love the long shots. This race historically is not for the odds-on favorite. This 5YO has won 3 races in a row but with lower speed numbers than others in the race. The switch to turf resulted in six wins in its first 10 races. It has been smartly moved up through the allowance ranks by O/T baracoon and today it makes its first attempt at a stakes race. It will join many of the others at back of the pack biding its time. This horse has to be considered but the jock selection creates more doubt for this 22-1 long shot.
TENACIOUS V
Vindication x Lear Fan
The 35th ranked 4YO filly takes on the boys today in
SPARE T(IRE)
Theatrical x. Danehill
This 4YO colt hopes today’s Grade II stakes race moves it up the ranking. Currently it is ranked 17th based on its Grade III Kasuda Yinen Mile win this year. The odds-on favorite today also has wins in the Grade I St. James Tavern, Grade II Coalmine Mile and Grade III Chantily Lace and The SDMF For Life Special. The one stat that stands is all of its graded stakes wins were at a mile. This added distance is exactly what this colt needs especially since at a mile it has average a 109 speed rating lately. It has one of the best jocks in the sim on board today. Can this 4YO, with a cool name, break the tradition of the Posh Purse and win as a favorite.
ELUFLY’S GOLDIE
Elusive Quality x Seeking the Gold
O/T shazfly has brought this 4YO colt up slowing through the ranks. This stalker hopes it can hold off the big time closers in the race. The story line so far for this colt is that it has been a bridesmaid in the stakes races. In seven previous stakes attempts it has finished in second place 4 times and third place 2 times with no wins. It has a nice 108 speed average lately but I wonder if it is better suited for 10 furlongs.
RANSOMAFFIRMEDSIR
Red Ransom x El Gran Senor
As one of the elder statesmen in the field, this 6YO hopes to recapture the glory of its past. Lately this horse has run in the allowance company and if it can run like it did two races back it will be in the mix. It does have some stakes wins but five of those were at 10 furlongs or longer. This could be a tune-up for its next race at a longer distance.
PERFECT KARMA
Pleasantly Perfect x
This 4YO former winner of the Grade III Florida Turf joins other graded winners today at a 1 1/16M. It has posted mostly low 100s in its races, but on off track six races back jumped up to a 113. Conditions of the track and a very good jock make this horse a tough competitor.
Dixieland Band x A P. Indy
Most of the time I discount 3YO running against the older horses unless they have proven themselves. Well the Grade II Fivestarnick Handicap winner last out has five wins in six races. It well rested and has averaged a 106 lately. It is the front runner in this race and there is not a lot of speed in this race. This lightly raced colt could go wire-to-wire.
SPECIAL PRIZE
Mineshaft x
The 5YO is a hit and miss for its new O/T pg52. It has a couple of small stakes wins and it just seems to have lost its form. If it was in last years race it would be one of the favorites, but today on just two weeks rest it looks like this is a tune up race for later on down the road.
BODHISATVA
Fusaichi Pegasus x Storm Bird
One of the great stories in SIM racing could occur today. O/T pikachu picked up this 4YO in a 5K claimer. This little claimer has won of three of seven races under its new owner along with 2 second place finishes. This allowance/starter allowance horse has posted only 90s speed numbers, but wouldn’t it be great if it upset all these former graded stakes winning horses. Keep your eye on #11 as it will challenge Dixie’s Pappilla for the lead.
PETE FOUNTAIN
Dixieland Band x Roberto
Back to reality, the 5YO former Grade III Haw Haw Derby champion is one of the early morning favorites with good reason. It has a 108 average lately and this closer is begging for the extra distance. It has raced in five straight milers resulting in only one small stakes victory with the rest coming up just short.
PGPG FILLY’S ARAZI
Arazi x Forestry
This 3YO is making a big step up in class today. It has been struggling of late in allowance races but it woke up in its last race and popped a 102 on a good turf surface. The colt has two wins on off tracks but it’s gonna need a lot of luck.
O/T Vicki looks for the off track race for this 5YO. It has raced eight times on an off track with 3 wins. In its last three stakes races this horse was overwhelmed. Its coming off of 3 weeks rest, but the off track factor along with a very good jock makes this 23-1 long shot a possibility.
Everyone should know by know, I have trouble picking winners. In public sim handicapping contest I’m 0-24. I did say that Randband might be there in last weeks graded stakes race. I just didn’t say it would win. Today I’m going with an upset. With little speed in the race I think
9 – 4 – 5 – 6