Wishy-washy handicapper sets odd LA Derby line
You’ve really got to feel sorry for the Louisiana track handicapper. The poor guy was given a group of 14 3yo dirt classic division colts and ordered to set a line assessing their chances to win. Ordinarily that wouldn’t be a horrible task. A G1 like the LA Derby typically draws some real good 3yos, some soon-to-be-real-good 3yos, and some average ones. Occasionally a few that belong in the claiming ranks might show up. This year, however, we have good horses across the board. They are so evenly matched that the favorite, Apache Sunrise, goes off at 7-1. Three more horses are listed at 8-1, and four more at 9-1. Amazing.
In the past, the LA Derby has served as an excellent Breeders Bowl prep, but no horse has earned the LA Derby-Breeders Bowl Classic double in the same year. Ermington Pegusus took third in Louisiana in 2006, then went on to a second in the BB Classic. Macho Niner was second in the LA Derby in 2005, and followed it up with a third at the Bowl. The stakes record was set by Dusty Dance; in the inaugural running if this race in 1999, he ran the 10f in 2:00.2 for a modern speed figure of 112.8.
A Vow To Be A Slew has drawn the rail post. Running out of the willyam37 barn, the Broken Vow colt has earned nearly a million bucks but this will be just his second graded start. AVTBAS has been doing very well in restricted company, taking the GR Simsters Kentucky Derby and beating some high-class colts including Passing Stone and Spitfire MK I in the Smackdown. he gave the G1 ranks a shot last out in the Travelers, but never put it all together and finished a well-beaten tenth. Despite the lack of any pizzazz, he still managed a decent 97SP. While the poor showing last out is disturbing from a colt that went into the race looking so great on paper, still feel that this is a colt waiting for his chance to win big. Look for a much better effort this time around. He has a great closing run and is capable of nice high speed figures. That Smackdown win earned him a 106SP. The 8-1 odds are very attractive.
Running for the zwango1 stable out of post 2 is Scarified. The Forty Niner colt has an awesome 50% win rate, but has yet to run longer than 8.5f or win at more than a mile. While the pedigree says he’ll do just fine at 10, and his closing style is suited to more ground, in two of his last three he was dying for lack of energy at the finish. That makes me think he might not enjoy 10f as much as he should. This is his first grade, though he is a stakes winner (once at a mile). The 104SP earned last out is very encouraging. 9-1 odds.
Spitfire MK I starts from stall 3 for the buffy8 stable. The Tiznow colt hasn’t made a trip to the winner’s circle this year, but that’s not for lack of trying. He lost the G3 Smallville at 9f by a slim nose back in March, and ran second to A Vow To Be A Slew in the GR Simsters Derby in May. Another second in an allowance in June, and a pattern begins to appear. every other race this year has been a good one. This should be his big race, if he follows pattern. His high speed figure of 100 won’t be enough to win this, but he’s at least within striking distance of what it will take to earn the trophy. Watch for him to hang out midpack most of the race. If he’s within four or so lengths heading into the far turn, we might see the colt live up to his name as a great force in the war that is racing. 13-1.
Our third GR Simster entrant is sender3’s Ghost Warden, starting from post 4. The Rainbow Quest began his career on the turf with moderate success, placing in stakes company twice and running top 3 in all 8 grass starts. Somehow, though, Warden had more in store for his connections. He went on the dirt for the first time three back at 8.5f and pulled off a beautiful come-from-the-clouds win for a 103SP. So he shot straight up the ranks for the 9f G2 Shiny Gem immediately after, and what do you know, he won again. This time it was a 2 3/4 length smacking of the competition for a record-setting 112SP. The streak was broken in the G1 Travelers last out as Warden was beaten by over 15 lengths in his first ever off-the-board performance. It could be the distance was the problem, or it might have been an unlucky fluke. I’m betting on fluke, and expect Warden to be back to his usual great self in this race. 9-1.
Theprofit1 has Gospel Of Christ in at 15-1. The Ministers Wild Cat colt makes his stakes debut in a difficult spot, but he’s handled allowance company well enough to deserve a shot at the big time. His longest race to date was at 9f, and an almost 2-length win for a 97SP was the result. He’s a nice midpack closer that has done most of his racing on RODOTS. After facing 14-horse fields just twice, and finishing fifth and last (due to injury) there is a concern that he won’t be able to handle the rough going in this big boisterous crowd. Still, the 103SP he earned for a second in an 8.5 allowance last out puts him within the range of the figure the winner will have to earn. If he can handle the class jump and extra ground, this could be a very interesting colt.
Many trainers hold a lot of respect for what stoners can coax out of his charges. His entry of Wicked Cat Tales is something of a leap, but the Tale Of The Cat colt has certainly earned the right to give it a shot. WCT is a great example of what a stable change can do to a horse. In June he switched from the slades barn to his current home via one of the owner’s famed auction transfers. The colt was a useful sort before the transfer, but in the three starts since he’s run 100+ speed figures three times, and posted second at 9f twice (the third start was an 8.5f win). WCT hasn’t faced much in the way of big fields, but his preference to lead or stalk should help him get clear of the pack here and keep him out of trouble. The major concern is his lack of stakes experience. 10-1.
Our 7-1 favorite gets to start from the middle of the gate. Apache Sunrise has had some real rough luck over his 15-race career. He won the G1 KyH Juvenile in August 2006, setting up high expectations. The colt really struggled after that race, however, finishing no better than sixth in four subsequent races. He opened the 2007 campaign in a listed stake only to pull up injured. After three months of R&R, he came back and against all odds still pulled off a second in the G2 Texas Derby. Off to Triple Jewel-land, he hit his first triple-digit speed figure in the Middle Jewel in finishing fifth. Then he was second again in graded company, this time the 10f G1 Princess Cup. After a year-long drought, Apache Sunrise finally put it all together again and rocked to a 109SP in a lovely front-running G1 Smackdown II win at a mile. After such a commanding performance the colt’s entry in the G1 Travelers at 10f was a bit of a surprise. Apache finished seventh, suggesting the Harlan’s Holiday colt may simply have some distance limitations. Here’s hoping his troubles are finally over and the colt finally gets the glory he looked so set on last year.
It’s just not a great race without a super entry, even if the horse isn’t one of their big stars. Running for super30 is Thrill Ride, who could well join the top tier of super horses if he handles this race like I suspect he can. The Eddington colt tried a couple of grades as a 2o, but finished so poorly that his connections wisely dropped him back to the allowance and listed ranks while they waited for him to mature and learn to run. Thrill Ride showed what’s made of with a great 9.5f win for a 103SP in April. He then took the DelPenn Derby though the 94SP suggests the field wasn’t as strong as it could have been. Add in a second in the DelPenn Middle Jewel and a third in the DelPenn New Yorker, and it’s clear that Thrill Ride is a darn good horse. His third in the DelPenn Travers last out earned a 103SP. Thrill Ride’s best feature is his extreme versatility. He can handle being out front, or he can happily close. I’d like to see him take the step back to graded company gracefully, and this looks like a great place to test him out. 18-1.
From gate 9 will break A.P. Gangster. The colt runs for the runabout stable, which shares common ownership of Wicked Cat Tales’ stable. The Gangster is slightly better regarded by the track handicapper at 8-1. Gangster is a son of A.P. Valentine; unlike some of his peers making their debuts in grades here, Gangster has already proven himself at the higher levels despite just eight starts on his record. He stepped out of allowance company two back to destroy a small field by 4+ at 9f in a listed stake for a 110SP. Off to graded company immediately, he finished fourth by about 4 lengths in the G1 Travelers with a strong closing run for a 105SP. This race will tell us just how good the colt can be.
Also at 8-1 is Blackjack Cat. Racinqueen’s Tactical Cat colt has one stakes win from 4 wins and 14 starts total, but that stakes was a turf start last October. The colt has been running on dirt all but one start this year, acquitting himself well in allowances. His stakes starts haven’t been so hot, however. Blackjack was ninth in the G2 Captain Hook in May and fourth in a mile listed stake two back. After the 106SP he popped to win an allowance last start, however, you really can’t fault the trainer for trying out some bigger/better stuff. Given that all of the colt’s wins have been at a mile, however, I’m not sure that this is the best place to test out the G1 waters. At the least he should provide some good speed up front.
I haven’t seen a ton of T horses in the 3yo dirt classic grades this year, but Ted has an interesting one entered in Well Played Ted. The Theatrical colt makes start #18 in search of win #3. He last visited the winner’s circle in December after a fine 8.5f listed stake score. That other win was also in a listed stake, that one at 6.5f in July 2006. If that’s the start of a pattern, WPT should next win when he goes 10.5f. Based on past performances, however, I’m not sure this colt wants any part of 10f and longer. He’s tried 9 and 9.5, but mostly been unsuccessful. The one bright spot was a solid second for a 105SP in the Buckeye Derby in July. That time WPT stayed close up to the lead, however, while generally he’s shuffled farther back and simply fades in the stretch. If the jockey can keep WPT well-positioned near the front, he has an outside chance. 10-1.
Breaking from post 12 is Change Your Mind. Slowhand’s Consolidator colt is the fourth and final GR Simster representative. He’s a two-time winner (from eight starts), but already graded placed. The trainer has a reputation for taking young colts and getting great performances from them, so keep an eye on this youngster. Change Your Mind’s best performance to date was a strong second in the G2 Mountainous Derby at 9. That was also his longest race, but the steady closing run suggests he’ll enjoy the extra furlong he gets in this race. The 106SP he earned is also quite competitive with this crowd. 9-1 odds make me think this colt could be a great bet.
Ur My Boy Blue runs for the bigal50 stable.The Bago colt has seven wins from 14 starts, and has won three of four stakes attempts (a second was earned in the fourth one). he’s mostly been facing small fields this year, but even so a 3 1/2 length stakes win at 10f (four starts back) is nothing to scoff at. His first and only triple-digit speed figure was earned in that stakes loss last time out; he was only a length out, so the loss was actually a respectable performance. The distance should be ideal for Boy Blue, and he’s certainly earned his stripes in listed company before making this jump. A very nice colt. At 19-1, he’s the field longshot.
The final horse, breaking from the far outside post, is casino’s Nagasaki. Six wins, three of them graded, make this one of the most experienced and accomplished horses in the field. He’s winless since April, but did place in a G2 in May. The Giant’s Causeway colt, like several others in the field, prefers to close from a ways back. The 109SP he earned in placing third in the G2 Mansur LeRoys in May is among the best of his generation. His recent poor performances lead me to wonder whether Nagasaki simply is best at a mile to 8.5f, and up to 9 on good days, or if there’s something else causing the form reversal. The colt does seem to go through periods of excellence and poor running, so perhaps we’ll see him get back to his good form this weekend.
This race is a difficult one to handicap, both for the track oddsmaker and for me as I look over the field. They all have good points and bad of one form or another. A Vow To Be A Slew, Ghost Warden, Change Your Mind, and A.P. Gangster seem slightly better than the rest to me, but this really is a race any of these fourteen fine colts could conceivably win.