Favorites at 5/1 in Grade 2 SnowPhantom
Race 15 on this weeks
The SnowPhantom Appreciation has been conducted annually here at
2000 – Lottsa Parade – benway – 1.21.8 – 113 – Retired winner of $600k.
2001 – Secret Shot – skipaway59 – 1.21.4 – 118 – Retired winner of $2.3m. Stakeswinner Secretariat’s Storm was based on Secret Shot
2002 – Joseph’s Pride – barba316 – 1.22.0 – 110 – retired winning $322k.
2003 – Buchiw – fastfinish – 1.21.4 – 118 – active (unraced since Oct. 05) winner of $692k.
2004 – My Miracle – unostable – 1.21.8 – 113 – active winner of $648k. Still racing very well, albeit at a lower level
2005 – General’s Chariot – proudtruth – 1.21.4 – 110 – active star, winner of $4.6m.
2006 – Conspirator – super10 – 1.21.6 – 108 – active winner of $353k.
History indicates that the winner will stop the clock in under 1.22, probably returning a 110+ speed figure. Let’s work through the formguide for this year’s renewal:
The inside gate will be occupied by Sing Symfonic, lining up with an enviable record to date, and consistently displaying the times which will be expected of the winner of this race. A son of Singspeil, his dam is Afleetafonix (Zafonic / Afleet), a lightly raced winner of two from seventeen. Mother of three to date, this colt, with three stakes wins and a Graded second on his scoreboard, is the most accomplished thus far. Sing Symfonic began his career with a couple of mid-field efforts on the dirt. Transferred to the grass at the commencement of his sophomore year, he fired immediately, scoring maiden, two allowance and an ungraded stakes wins from his next five runs. One sub par run preceded two more stakes wins, then promotion to the graded ranks. The best guide to his chances here was his run three starts back when second over this trip in Epsom’s G2-The Maybe I Can Stakes. The dancards owned / trained colt clocked 1.21.8 in that run, a time which puts him in the proven category for this. He likes to lead and the quality jockey should ensure he gets every chance
From gate 2 emerges Puramati, a filly taking on the boys, and one of the longshots in the field. On the positive side is her liking for the distance. This, however, is also one of the negatives as her last ten starts have all been over this trip, giving us perhaps too much evidence of her ability here. She’s no slouch: a more than capable allowance runner, but this is just far too hard. From eleven runs she’s picked up her maiden and a NW2L allowance. Two attempts at black type racing have resulted in a fifth of seven and a sixth of nine. Her best recorded time for the distance (and remember, we’ve seen lots of experience at the distance) is 1.23.2. That’s a good six lengths shy of the minimum we’d expect the winner of this event to register. Scratchbred by trainer szemere, Puramati carries the modest bloodlines of Perfect Circle / Bold Lad / Hasty Road. She’s handy, but at this stage of her career, appears simply not up to this class.
From 3 comes R Loyal Man, a more than useful son of Mr. Greeley, who’s been relegated for a couple of starts to the allowance ranks, despite a series of close up finishes against Graded company. His dam, Streets of Heaven (Lil’s Lad / Lear Fan) won two minor races and this colt is her only issue to date. Breeder / owner kbsweet set the colt on a dirt program for his first seven runs, culminating in his initial run as a three year old. Not disgraced, he won a couple including a rich $50k allowance. Converting to the turf in mid January, his career has since blossomed, his times have tumbled and he’s proven himself classy enough for this company. From nine starts on the grass this year, he’s won just two allowances, but with his career highlights coming with a pair of seconds in the G3-Frio Frio Mile and the G3-Black Velvet Turf Stakes he’s shown that good races are within his reach. Looking at the strength of the opposition would seem to suggest that R Royal Man will need to at least equal his previous personal best to be in the mix, but he generally gives his all and a forward showing will not surprise.
Drawn in barrier 4 is Frenzy, lining up as second top qualifier for the run, and equal favorite in the early markets, neither of which is surprising considering his splendid recent form. His most recent four starts have seen him banking checks against Graded fields, while the two runs immediately prior resulted in triple digit speed rated victories in ungraded stakes company. Of minor concern is his inability to cross the line first in those four graded runs, but a close up second, beaten a quarter of a length in the G3-Joisy Stakes, where the winner ran 1.21.8 proves that he is capable of running the time expected here, and his run two starts back, third in the G1-Never Ready Sprint, shows he’ll have no class problems. Frenzy is a member of the super establishment and is a son of Forestry. His dam, Exbourne’s XO (Grand Slam / Sadler’s Wells) won five minor races from twenty two and this is her first issue. He’s likely to settle midfield and be given every chance in the run by competent rider O Brooks.
Redoute’s Son jumps from 5 and steps up to graded racing, following a solid series of black type performances which leave no doubt that he’s earned a tilt against this higher level of competitor. He is, as you would expect, by the champion Australian sire Redoute’s Choice, from the moderately performed Momentum (Miesque’s Son / Cozzene) a one time claimer with starter and allowance wins among her five from nineteen. Redoute’s Son is far superior to stablemate half sibling Unbridled’s Son (Unbridled’s Song), while an unraced half sister, Sabiha, a daughter of Fastnet Rock resides elsewhere. But back to the colt in question. Tip2no knew a more than handy colt had joined the team, right from the outset. Winning his debut easily, he then ran third and first at allowance level before embarking on a black type program. Seven subsequent runs have returned four wins, two thirds and a fifth, as the colt closes in on $200k in earnings. Historically, this race is won with a strong triple digit speed rating, and this fellow is yet to put the three figures on the board, but he’s answered every challenge thus far, and simply doesn’t run bad races. Don’t dismiss him, as he could add value to the exotics.
Barrier 6 holds Samurai Mike, lining up in his attempt to collect consecutive winners check number six. After falling short a couple of times against black type opposition as a juvenile, connections have given him a solid preparation at allowance level before re-visiting the higher class. This year he’s risen to every challenge since proving, first out at three, that dirt was not for him and then trying an unsuccessful trip over much further. The last five, at distances from six and a half to eight have seen him home a comprehensive victor on each occasion, including one at ungraded stakes level. Samurai Mike is a son of the solid Canadian based sire Singletary, from Dixie Dance Off (Danehill / Dixieland Band), a six figure earning winner of three from twenty six. Her younger, and only other offspring, Vampyre (Kingmambo) is showing promise from her two starts to date. Samurai Mike faces his biggest test this week, but breeder / trainer rohirrim has him firing on all cylinders, and as he’s been untroubled in recent starts, who knows how much the colt may have had left in reserve. 12/1 seems incredibly generous for a runner with wins from all of his last five.
Buddha’s Royal Pet has drawn 7 and this three year old has a recent stakes win, a black type second and a last start triple digit speed rating, all from his last four runs, as evidence that he’s worth plenty of consideration again this week. A scratchbred son of Buddha / Tiger Hill / Native Royalty, he’s already banked over a quarter of a million dollars by winning four of his eleven starts. A route stakeswinning two year old, he was kept at the longer trips early in his three year old season. Although competitive at further, once we exclude the longer trips from the analysis, his form looks exemplary, with three wins and three seconds from six sprint appearances. He still needs to find a length or two time wise, as the 1.22.2 he recorded last start, his personal best, is probably just shy of this weeks historical winning time. On the positive side for the sportoking bred / trained colt are his current winning form, overall sprinting record and still improving times. Buddha’s Royal Pet has the potential to become one of the premier turf sprinters and is certainly worth plenty of consideration at the liberal offering of 12/1.
Saucie exits from barrier 8, and is the second of three fillies taking part in the race. Her formline posted a massive jump last start when she added twelve points to her previous best ever speed rating, bring home a triple digit score for the first time. She ran about 1.22.3 in that run in
Idolatria, the third filly contesting the event, alights from gate 9 and takes a giant leap here following an ultra-smart demolition job on a rich
Demons Direct exits the 10 barrier. This talented sprinter is still improving despite already having the more than handy record of six wins from fourteen, and a bank balance in excess of $300k. Appearing exclusively in black type races since winning maiden and allowance races in starts two and three. He’s brought home a check on each of those eleven occasions, winning four, and running second in another four. Of minor concern is the fact that the three times he missed were all in Graded races, but fourth of fourteen in the G1-Nationwide Stakes, and fifth in each of two other big field Graded races, proves that he’s right up to the mark. His most recent two runs in ungraded races have both returned second placings, but speed figures of 102 and 107 were most impressive. Demon Direct is a scratchbred son of Awesome Again / War Chant / Halo, in the care of owner / breeder cougar. There seems little doubt that Demon’s Direct is capable of cracking the 1.22 that will be required here. He can settle virtually anywhere in the run and still be sure to be in the finish. One of the genuine chances.
Stall 11 is the starting slot for Amour Seeker, making his first attempt at black type racing, but coming into this off three consecutive allowance victories, stopping the seven furlong clock in an amazing 1.21.2 just three weeks ago. Bred by trainer uask4it, he’s a son of Azamour from Storm Seeker II (Seeking the Gold / Storm Cat). Mum was something of an underachiever, winning three ordinary races from nineteen runs, and after falling short with her first foal, looks to be on the verge of making up for everything with this one. There is a question to be answered regarding class, as he’s never previously started against black type company, and he’s skipping the ungraded step by lining up here. Balance against that the fact that his last start 112 is the highest number on the past performance form page and Amour Seeker looks to have the most untapped potential of any runner here. This week is just his eleventh trip to the track and consistent repetition of his last start will see his name in lights. You may not see 8/1 again for a very long time.
From 12 comes Power Forward, a colt whose career has surged since his permanent shift to the grass half a dozen starts back. A scratchbred son of Powerscourt / Seattle Slew / Halo, he began his career on the dirt. Winning a maiden at his second start, he flopped at stakes level next time out, his final run as a juvenile. This year he started with a solid allowance third on the grass, before a couple more inglorious attempts on dirt. This is where the story gets interesting! His last six have produced five wins and a second. Two of those wins were against black type opposition, but it’s the allowance run sandwiched between them that perhaps provides the pivotal pointer for this week. He won that with a widening margin over the seven furlongs, stopping the clock in 1.22 dead. That’s the mark that will almost certainly separate the wheat from the chaff in this event. He’s been there, done that. Owner / breeder dokki3 has Power Forward racing in superb recent form. Combined with the fact that he’s proven over the conditions he automatically becomes a genuine chance.
Gate 13 is the starting position for Prince Crash, a turf sprint stakes winner at two. He’s a true breeding enigma. His mother, Crash Bang Wallop, is an obscurely bred star (Darazari / Claim – G1 winner – $875k) who didn’t set the world afire early as a broodmare, despite having appointments with Storm Cat and Spinning World. Sent however (perhaps through frustration) to a lesser light son of Storm Cat (Prints of Peace), she produced this, her best offspring by far (The jury may be still be out on the juvenile daughter of Face Value, but she doesn’t look like measuring up to this standard). Sadly, his three year old record seems to indicate he’ll really struggle here. The prufrockaj bred / trained colt is more than competitive at allowance level, but in four ungraded stakes races, he’s finished third of five in one, with down the track finishes in the other three. Looking at times and history, Prince Crash needs to find six or seven lengths on his personal best, to be in the mix if the race in run in a time equivalent to the slowest ever.
C.V. Cat lines up in the widest stall and can only be described a virtually an unknown quantity, as he returns to make just his second career appearance on the turf. What do we go on? His one turf start, while still a juvenile, resulted in his finishing second in a stakes race. He returned then, at his seventh start, the highest speed rating of his career to that point. His three year old season thus far has been a mixed bag. One allowance and one ungraded stakes win, a couple of podium finishes, two close up minor checks and three inglorious results against very smart graded company. Bred in the purple by owner / trainer reclaimed, C.V Cat is a scratchbred carrying the lines of Storm Cat / Seattle Slew / Nijinsky. Is he a turfer just awaiting another chance? Is he an expensive, inconsistent, frustrating colt of solid, but rarely produced ability? Does he simply lack the ability to race against the better brigade? This week will go some way to answering those questions, and this writer will not be surprised if question 1 is settled in the affirmative.
Summary: I’ve dwelt perhaps a tad too much on the historical results of previous renewals of this race, but by doing so, have possibly drawn a line of expectation. We have horses taking part here which have proven they can match previous benchmarks: Sing Symphonic, Frenzy, Demon’s Direct, Amour Seeker and Power Forward. Then there are those who may well have the potential to so, R Loyal Man, Redoute’s Son, Samurai Mike, Buddah’s Royal Pet, Idolatria or C.V. Cat. Finally those who need to far outperform any ability they have previously displayed, Puramati, Sauci, and Prince Crash. The market prices prove that this is a most open race with many chances, so in making selections we’ll look to a bit of value. I feel Power Forward has been overlooked by the odds assessors, 10/1 is far too generous, so we’ll tip him first. If Idolatria can lead clearly, she’ll take running down, so she gets the nod for second. Winning form is good form. Samurai Mike for third, but there are eleven horses with some sort of chance.
The Market:
5/1 – Sing Symfonic, Frenzy
6/1 – Demon’s Direct
7/1 – C.V. Cat
8/1 – R Loyal Man, Amour Seeker
Qualification Order (Class Rating Position):
Sing Symphonic – 13
Frenzy – 14
Demon’s Direct – 15
Redoute’s Son – 22
Power Forward – 52