First SWC Sprint Has A Case Of ‘Smuggler’s Blues
“Welcome back, my friends/To the show that never ends/We’re so glad you could attend/Come inside, come inside…”—Emerson, Lake and Palmer, “Karn Evil 9 (First Impression, Part 2)”
The above quote, from the part of a 29-minute prog-rock song that has become popular at American sporting events, is what I hear when I think of the Sim World Cup. It’s just the inaugural running of what is to become one of the marquee events of Sim racing, but just as the song has a certain air of intense anticipation, so does the first Sim World Cup (hereafter known as the SWC, because it’s easier to type, and who’d ever begrudge me making something easy to read for the BTB?). I’m American, but decidedly non-partisan about the competition, considering I don’t have a horse entered in the SWC, so I play no favorites and will hate, or at least politely tolerate, everyone equally.
There’s a distinct excitement whenever something is the “first” of its kind. There’s a sense of making history, an aura of being the first one on the moon, metaphorically speaking. So the first running of the Grade I, $500,000 World Cup Sprint has that special feeling associated with it. To be the first name etched onto the Sim World Cup, to be the one to set the initial stakes record for the event, these are standards upon which future competitors can be measured. It’s no melodramatic exaggeration to say that being the first to win something and being the one future competitors hope to emulate is a pretty special achievement.
Despite the invitation-only restrictions, the Sprint shapes up as a solid Grade I sprint. A majority of the entrants have graded wins on their pedigree, and only a couple do not have any blacktype wins on their résumés at all, but there is no one about whom it could be said that their presence isn’t justified, all things considered. That’s all you can ask from a graded stakes race. The odds reflect this fact; the longest price here is just 20-1, but even that 20-1 shot looks ready for stakes action regardless of what happens here.
The roster for the event breaks down along these lines, with their odds:
North/South America
HENNESSY TITANS (5-1)
SMUGGLER’S CATCH (7-1)
BACHELOR PARTY (7-1)
MY TOWNSHIP (11-1)
Europe
TALE OF AUROR (12-1)
WONDERBOY DJ (5-1)
JOURNEY TO JUPITER(IRE) (8-1)
ACT OF BRAVE (8-1)
Australia/Far East
PERSIAN LYRIC(IRE) (12-1)
SMOULDERING STREET (8-1)
JADED KRAKEN (20-1)
FROSHUS AMBROSHUS(IRE) (13-1)
Averaging the odds, North America is at 7-1 overall, Europe is at 8-1, and Australia/Far East is at 13-1 to capture this race. But as much as this is a team competition, it’s still for individual purse money, and that fight should be even closer than the team race in the SWC. Here’s a look at the field for the first SWC Sprint, a six-furlong race not to be confused with the Long Sprint at seven panels.
Australia/Far East
PERSIAN LYRIC(IRE) [Peintre Celebre(IRE) x Gone West]
Trainer: thematrix, for Bigkev and Bjbandit Farms
Claim to fame: Won Grade III Oyster Pub Sprint
This three-year-old colt, in just fifteen starts, has managed to hit the board in eleven races. Since a three-race detour to kill whatever delusions of grass success he may once have had foisted on him, the horse has risen in esteem for his sprint abilities. He came from well out of it last time to win the seven-furlong Delaware Destroyer in Nevada, earning him a very strong speed figure of 109. In fact, having earned six triple-digit numbers in seven outings since last racing on grass, that should make him the measure of consistency, right? Certainly, as far as his team goes. As far as other foes, he doesn’t have what a couple of them do at this point, and that’s a 110+ speed figure. Logic suggests that if another horse manages a high speed figure in an equivalent race at the same distance, that it might just take a similar number to get the job done. Fortunately, the 109 last out did come at seven furlongs, and this one has proved to be effective turning back to six furlongs. His M.O. usually is to sit just off the lead and move late, though last time she did make a big run from the back of the field to score. Talented as he is, his abilities in graded action were hit and miss even before winning the Oyster Pub three races back, with a third in the Dallas BB and a fourth two years ago in the Cryogenics Juvenile, and a thirteenth in the Sooner-Husker back in July. He’s got a good kick to him, but he seems to be still a bit wet behind the ears, and uneven against Grade I opposition.
SMOULDERING STREET [Fool’s Pleasure x Graustark]
Trainer: magoo2912, for the Magoo Lodge
Claim to fame: Won Yukon Trick Stakes
This colt doesn’t have an incredibly fashionable pedigree. He’s just a seven-year-old by a now-retired son of What A Pleasure, and the elder statesman of this field, making his forty-third start. What he may lack in $25 bloodlines he makes up for with a lot of good, quality tactical speed. Last out, in the listed Yukon Trick, he took advantage of the wet racetrack, sat just off a swift lead, and took over in the lane with finesse. You won’t find him overpowering foes with blazing speed or a late dash, but he will sit right off the lead and wait before assuming the lead. It’s a quality that has served him well in winning three sprint stakes this year from twelve outings. Despite that workman-like ability, though, he’s foundered whenever he’s stepped into the gate versus graded stakes runners. He faded to thirteenth in this March’s Sand Castle Golden Sprint, and was an even eighth, beaten just three lengths, in January’s Backseat Driver (behind Wonderboy DJ). This field isn’t as hardcore as either event, but there’s enough graded talent to be viewed as intimidating to any veteran, no matter how wily. He’ll be up close early, and may have a say in the finish, but anything in excess of a minor share of the purse may possibly be expecting too much.
JADED KRAKEN [E Dubai-Storm Dolphin, by Storm Cat]
Trainer: blacktype, for Wag Racing Stables
Claim to fame: Has won two straight allowance races
Of all the Australian/Far East entries, this one is the biggest risk (at 20-1), but also I believe has the biggest chance to pull off an upset. He’s the baby of the field, with just eight starts, and he’s making his graded bow here. What appeals to me is the nick—E Dubai x Storm Cat is a very popular way to go, and indeed, even I have tried it with some success thus far—and his quickly developing skills. He earned a 106 last out in winning a seven-furlong NW3x over a surprisingly accomplished field, including Grade II winner Angry Alex and a slew of stakes-placed horses, sitting just off a vivid pace; the 104 he earned in an allowance score just prior was done wire-to-wire, at seven and a half furlongs. He’s versatile in his tactics, but the races do bring up an interesting point: having never been beyond seven and a half before, with his best speed figures coming as the races got longer, might he be more of a miler? His best speed figure at six panels is a 95, his best at six and a half is a 98; this is hinting pretty strong that his best races may yet be lying ahead of him. Still, I think he’s in with a shot, as turning back in distance doesn’t have to be a bad thing, even with a miler, and tactically Smuggler’s Catch figures to be the lone speed in the field; not too many others have shown a willingness to go to the front as needed. This colt certainly does have some ability at being sent to the front; although he has only used that speed just once, once was clearly enough. His inexperience does work against him here, but it also can work for him, in that he’s not had an arduous campaign, racing since just last December. He is the Aussie team’s value play, and I think he may acquit himself well in both his graded debut and a debut against older horses; I’d watch him pretty carefully.
FROSHUS AMBROSHUS(IRE) [Hawk Wing(IRE) x Storm Bird]
Trainer: deyoto2, for Champion Lodge
Claim to fame: Won 2006 Last Boy Scout Cap
The last of the Australia/Far East contingent is a veteran who has recently seen his fortunes improve on his form. Each of his last four starts has seen him earn a speed figure above the century mark. The caveat, on the other hand, is that each of those races was at or beyond seven furlongs. His preferred distance might be these shorter races, but wins on the whole have been somewhat fleeting lately; not only has this colt not won since the Last Boy Scout, in June 2006, that race remains to date his only stakes victory. He’d certainly move up on a muddy track, as in recent times his best efforts have come in the slop (with an average speed figure of 104 on wet dirt). But the track is fast in the Bluegrass state for this, and in his thirty-fourth start, this marks his first attempt at facing graded-caliber horses. He likes to stick close to the pace and lay in wait late, but not only does he have good company at that trick, he hasn’t been that successful in recent times at it. It’s a little difficult to make a case for a horse without a win in almost sixteen months against some very fast sprinters. He did get a 101 last out in an evenly-ran Taiwan allowance performance, but is going to have to step his game up considerably against the stronger sections of the SWC contingents.
North/South America
HENNESSY TITANS [Hennessy-Ms. Prospector, by Mr. Prospector]
Trainer: slewbetcha, for Irisharse Stables
Claim to fame: Won Ashley Elizabeth Abner Stakes
One veteran who may truly be peaking at another level is this horse, who won the Ship Lunch last out with panache and earned a 110 for his efforts. That was his second consecutive eye-opener for this vet, who picked up a figure of 109 in an Upper New York allowance two back; that marks the fourth 109 and the fifth figure of 109 or higher in the last calendar year for him. Each of his eleven career wins have come at either six or six and a half furlongs. But with six of those wins at six and a half panels, and with him actually being unbeaten at that distance, my money would be on that distance being where his true love lies. This doesn’t quite bode as well for a six-furlong dash, though. His graded outings seem jinxed, as he’s come rather close at some points to crossing over to a victory, but something doesn’t go his way. He ran his heart out in the 2006 edition of the Grade III Count Fingers Sprint, but fell just short after stalking a swift lead that day, second at 19-1. In 2007’s race, he caught an off-track he didn’t appreciate, and never got into it despite an even trip, finishing eighth. He’s usually quite effective at stalking the pace and taking over at the earliest chance to pounce. An extra sixteenth, though, could make the difference; still, it’s a good, not great, field, and in very potent form as he is, pressing Smuggler’s Catch gives him some hope if as expected that one is the sole speed. Recent numbers are excellent, and winning two in a row and three of his last five make him something worth considering.
SMUGGLER’S CATCH [Capote x Seeking The Gold]
Trainer: zeplin, for zeplin stables
Claim to fame: Won Henpecked Stakes
Speak of the devil. The devil wants the lead, period. His best results come from a quick jump out of the gate. Witness his last win, in the Henpecked back in June. He set reasonable fractions, opened up by two, and still dug deep to win by a half-length. He prefers to lead, and that’s a quality that is somewhat lacking among every horse in the field; some want to stalk closely, some have led from the first call over smaller or lesser fields, but no one here wants to be in front earlier than this colt. It is at his detriment, though, particularly against higher. He set the pace two back in the Grade III Middle Of Nowhere, and lost a head bob late to My Township, who’s here also. He led by almost three into the stretch of the Grade III Cracked Peanuts on July 14, but got nailed in the shadow of the wire yet another starter here, Bachelor Party. He had a four-length advantage in April’s Grade I Billy And Jimmy, and still got picked off after a very ambitious pace. His speed can be his undoing, which is why he’s four-time graded placed, but not a graded winner to date. And his speed figures are reasonably consistent for this level, but still a minimal amount lower than some of the other, bigger prices in the field have achieved lately. Still, the race is devoid of a lot of early speed, and the stalkers here aren’t all that comfortable with stepping up and making a strong early challenge, which makes a loose-on-the-lead horse pretty dangerous. Think Keely isn’t kicking herself, just a smidge? She bred this fast one, lost him for $25K, then his new owner dropped him to a $2K claimer and lost him to another owner who had two starts, including another unfortunate $15K claimer in which the horse was nabbed for a steal by his current connections. Needless to say, he should be in front from the start barring an unforseen glitch somewhere in Kentucky, but can he hang in for the elusive Grade I? Hard to say; this is his fifteenth start of 2007 alone, and just three of his wins have come at this distance, but someone’s going have to kick into gear to catch him, and if he’s loose, it might be game over pretty quickly.
BACHELOR PARTY [Point Given x Blushing Groom(FR)]
Trainer: super19, for the More Evil Than The Evil Empire!
Claim to fame: Won Grade III Cracked Peanuts Sprint
This is one of only three contenders who have caught Smuggler’s Catch in 2007 (along with Smouldering Street and My Township), and that’s likely their task in this race. This one seems quite up to the job, and what’s more, he loves this distance, as he is 6-for-11 at six furlongs, with a pair of graded wins this year. He’s a deep threat…a real deep threat, as it happens; he was eight lengths out halfway home in the Cracked Peanuts before unleashing a furious rally to get up for a narrow win. In his other graded win, he was nine lengths out before getting up late by just more than a length, back in April’s Ferris Bueller. He’ll appreciate a lively pace, but would possibly like a more contentious one for optimal results. His speed figures, too, are reasonable for the level, but not quite best in the field in recent weeks. His prep for this, though, the restricted DelPenn Forego, while coming up short by about two, came over an off-track in which he still earned a 107 going six and a half. Turning back, and returning to a fast surface, might just be the added incentive he needs for his best run. He won’t be the only deep force to be dealt with, but he’s certainly a live wire in a field not teeming with all the best sprinting names.
MY TOWNSHIP [Delaware Township x Barbeau]
Trainer: jeffdrew, for The Big Oil Conglomerate (Ft. LordPye)
Claim to fame: Won Grade III Middle Of Nowhere Sprint
The last entry from the Western Hemisphere is another closer who has caught, and needs to catch again, the prevailing speed in the race. He’s done well in recent memory, capturing the Middle Of Nowhere two back while motoring from seven lengths off the pace, and that was the right win at the right time, when you consider his previous sprint stakes efforts before then only netted him a pair of fourths, a fifth, and an eleventh. Was it the crowning glory for him, or just the beginning? Well, that’s initially tough to say; he was wheeled back a couple of weeks after the win to a grass sprint in Sweden, in which he was next-to-last in a field of eleven and could not get a firm grip on the turf. It likely wasn’t much more than a conditioning exercise, but sometimes such exercises take a few races to see results. He’s had a month to recover from it, but is he going to be in the proper condition to resume his dirt form? His recent numbers suggest he’s hit a recent plateau with his speed figures, and considering the speed up front and the needed stretch run to catch it, maybe the turf race wasn’t immediately the best idea, and maybe later in the fall it’ll yield more exciting results. The Middle Of Nowhere was his first stakes win of any stripe, and that lack of winning form at stakes level is perhaps just more troublesome in this spot than his last effort or speed figures that do pale slightly in here; I’d recommend watching this one going forward closer to the final Breeders Bowl preps.
Europe
TALE OF AUROR [Tale Of The Cat-El Principe, by Machiavellian]
Trainer: auror, for the Fernando Empire
Claim to fame: Won Lord Coin Cap
Speed matters in a sprint. Freshness does, also, but how fresh is too fresh for a Grade I event like the SWC series? This colt is a sort of guinea pig for the debate: it’s been more than three months since he last ran, and five months since his last win. The signs haven’t necessarily been there that there was an injury happening, and in fact his last outing, the Grade II Si’ Amigo Sprint, he sat just off the pace before fading to seventh, and the 103 he earned was more than respectable. He’s got some speed here, and can go out winging on his own, but from the gate I suspect his speed is more tactical than blazing, and that Smuggler’s Catch is just faster overall. Still, the key for the stalkers might be in trying to prevent the Smuggler from getting a sole lead for an extended period, and this is where Tale Of Auror will need to be careful. The pressure tactics worked to perfection in the Lord Coin last April, where he ran just ever so close to the lead and inherited it late, earning a 105. He was used to leading when on the 2006 Triple Crown trail, and earned some respectable routing figures that spring, but his excellence lies in sprinting, and in using pressure to open the door for himself. Also, the Lord Coin and a juvenile stakes race aside, six furlongs has not been especially kind to him, whereas longer sprints and the mile have been more amenable to his speed; his career high figure, a 107, was earned in a mile stakes he just missed in, back in January. He should be close to the lead, but he might need an extra furlong or so to fire his best shot.
WONDERBOY DJ [Carson City x Seattle Slew]
Trainer: wonder2, for Zeco Stables Belgium
Claim to fame: Won Grade III Backseat Driver
This horse is not just freshened since his last start: he’s been pampered, with just four 2007 starts to date. And that has been beneficial, with a win in the Grade III Backseat Driver, and three other finishes in the money in his four starts this year, most recently a third in the Grade II Pinto in California in his last start on July 7. That third-place finish was good for a 109, and it was at seven furlongs, which is not usually one where he does his best running from. The summer vacation, coupled with his closing kick and a turn back into his preferred distance, might make him a very formidable runner. He isn’t a great deep threat, but one can rely on him from making a run from off the pace, anywhere from the rear of the pack to being a stalker off a hot lead. It almost got him a Breeders Bowl Sprint win last November, but it definitely has earned him a pair of graded victories at this distance over a long and successful career totaling $1.5 million in earnings. It’s been two years since he saw anything less than a graded stakes, and eighteen months since he failed to reach a speed figure of 100 or higher in a race, and the 109 from the Pinto keeps him right in line with the best last-out figures in the field. His main concern, like Tale Of Auror, is too much freshness, so much that he may need the race. Is a two-month break better than a three-month rest? That question, always a source of good debate over training techniques, could be answered here soon.
JOURNEY TO JUPITER(IRE) [Galileo(IRE)-Torridly Paint, by Gone West]
Trainer: calle4, for the Nickesyd Racing Club
Claim to fame: Second, Unbridled’s Open Stakes
There are trainers who have horses that are suited for stakes action, but find a long, bordering on comical, string of futility. Journey To Jupiter is a good veteran runner, a five-time winner of thirty-three starts and $175K, but in stakes races, mischief ensues. Caught stalking off a good early pace going seven furlongs last out in the Unbridled Sim History stakes, he fell just a nose away. And that’s just the most recent outing. He’s been outrun as a stalker, as a closer, as a deep threat, but managed to hit the board seven times in seventeen stakes outings. But all is not lost; it took this horse thirty-three races to get a streak of 100+ speed figures going on, and currently that streak is up to five, and the best was saved for last. The Unbridled gave him a best-last-out for the field, of 111, which is an outstanding result. He just missed getting over the hump by a nose on the wire, but catching a wave of triple-digit speed figures at this stage in his career should provide enough hope to keep him alive. Alas, he turns back in distance but steps up in class here, and his stalking style of racing is not an isolated tactic among this field, so he’s going to be in for a fight barring that 111 not actually being an isolated incident. A return to listed sprinting might be in his future.
ACT OF BRAVE [Gone West x Danehill]
Trainer: pm, for PM Racing — RIP Kinger Rocks
Claim to fame: Won Grade II Kentucky BB Sprint
The last of the entrants for Team Europe is the 2004 Breeders Bowl Juvenile runner-up, who has since become a top-flight sprinter of sorts. A Grade I winner in 2005 sprinting, he hit some rough patches over the last couple of years, but seemed to turn a corner at 5, by winning the Kentucky BB Sprint in May from almost ten lengths out. The deep threat more recently just surged too late in the Kingab Sprint Cup last out, back on August 18, finishing little more than a half-length short. Interestingly, this horse might be in the opposite category of some others here, in that maybe six furlongs is a tad much, seeing his win at five and a half in Kentucky and a near-miss at five furlongs last out. It’s possible that he’s a true dash sprinter of really short distances, a Rocket Man of sorts. The last six-furlong win at stakes level was almost two years ago, but with a fast start guaranteed, a last-minute frantic rush late could be suitable here. His speed figures in the last six months are in the middle triple-digits, not quite enough to run with the cream of the field, but he has back class to spare in a Grade I field, and could be an upset contender if the pace breaks his way.
The predictions:
1. Bachelor Party
2. Wonderboy DJ
3. Smuggler’s Catch
4. Jaded Kracken
5. Act of Brave
Good luck to all in the inaugural Sim World Cup.