Future Stars Series – 12 Colts Tackle The Turf in a NW2L in Paris

First, a quick recap of last week’s race.  I predicted a hot pace with at least 5 different horses battling for the lead.  So of course, the pace ended up being very relaxed, with only 1 horse even bothering to try to grab the lead.  That horse was Silly Magic, who ran the first quarter mile in a mild 23.10.  Bospityev sat just off of that in 2^nd, and then pounced on the far turn, grabbing the lead from Silly Magic and never looking back.  Bospityev pulled ahead and drew away to win by 1-1/2 lengths, earning a 92 SP as the 14/1 second longshot and showing that she could handle route races just fine (again, contrary to my earlier prediction).  Betting favorite Henty Iron was the only horse from off the pace that showed any speed, as she made a solid move in the stretch to finish 2^nd and looking like she might enjoy some longer distances.  Silly Magic dropped back a little, but still put in a solid run, finishing 2 lengths behind the winner in 3^rd.

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This week, the Future Stars Series goes international! We head to the City of Lights, Paris, France, where 12 3yo colts have gotten together to compete in a NW2L Allowance at 8 furlongs on the turf.  The field is:

#1 – Sunset Ave (Gleneagles x Consul at Sunset [Lemon Drop Kid x Starcraft (NZ)]) – Owned by bonk28 – 15/1

Race Record: 1:1-0-0; $3,000

Race History: Sunset Ave made a late debut as a 2yo, kicking off his career in December 2018 in a HOT MSW in Ireland.  The race was at 8 furlongs on the turf, but it was a “get ready and go” hot race, so only 4 runners entered, 2 of which were *CPU horses.  The race was the home of 2 debuts from non-CPU horses though, and Sunset Ave sat just off one of the CPU horses early, before that colt tired and Sunset Ave found himself way in front.  He cruised to a 2-1/2 length victory, earning a 74 SP in the process.

Pedigree: Gleneagles, a champion turf miler, entered stud in 2016 so does not have any horses to hit the track yet.  In the sim, he has been solid so far.  His 2018 class includes 109 runners to date, of which 49 have scored a victory, winning at a 13.5% rate (well below the 19% of his older classes).  Gleneagles sim progeny seem to improve as they age, which makes some sense, given that his progeny prefer turf routes (85% earnings on turf, 62% in routes).  The 3yo crop includes 2 stakes winners, one of whom, Paradise Dreams, took home The Juvenile Filly-G1 at 8f-T back in December, and is currently the #4 ranked 3yo turf route filly.  Also among his first 3 sim crops is Sim Eclipse Award winner Walder Frey, who won the 2017 3yo Turf Colt of the Year.  Sunset Ave is the first foal from Consul at Sunset, a 6yo stakes placed mare, who won 13 of 29 races in her career.  Most of those races came in turf routes, where she excelled at longer 9-12f races.

Expectations: It’s tough to know what to expect here, when this colt is coming straight from a hot race with minimal competition.  But with that said, Sunset Ave did what you would want to see a horse do at that level; he dominated a race.  The speed figure may not be at the top of this race, but it didn’t need to be.  I don’t expect him to be on the lead here, and I expect him to be midpack, several lengths off the lead.  At 15/1, he may be the 2nd longshot on the board, but he’s a live one.

Watch Level: Medium

#2 – Kymarc Cap (Red Rocks x Alycap [Marscay x Alydar]) – Owned by kymar26 – 8/1

Race Record: 5:1-2-1; $60,160

Race History: Gelded before his first start, Kymarc Cap took 4 races to finally break his maiden, though he was in each of the 3 races prior to that win.  In his debut race at 5.5f-T, Kymarc Cap sat midpack early and then closed, pulling within 1 length of the winner, who would go on to win a residency stakes (and open stakes placed), and finished ¼ length ahead of a horse who would go on to be stakes placed at 8.5f-T.  In his second race, at 6f-T, he finished 3^rd, 1 length behind a horse that is G3-placed at 8f-T (though still a maiden).  In Kymarc Cap’s 4^th career race, in October 2018, he was finally stretched out to 8f-T, and he showed his affinity for longer races.  He stalked the pace early, and then pounced in the backstretch, pulling ahead and opening up lengths on the field, before cruising to a 2-1/2 length victory and earning an 87 SP, a career best.  His first try at the NW2L level, however, did not go as well.  Kymarc Cap didn’t break as well in the 8.5f-T race, and had to sit midpack early.  He couldn’t keep up with some of the others, and finished 8^th, earning an 83 SP.  The winner of the NW2L repeated in a 7f-T stakes on January 20, while the 3^rd and 6^th place finishers also came back to win NW2L races next time out.

Pedigree: Kymarc Cap is a member of Red Rocks’ last crop, as the sire passed away in 2018.  Winner of the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Turf, Red Rocks excelled in long distance turf races in his career.  In the sim, his 3yo crop includes 22 runners, of which 9 have won with an 8% win rate (well below the 15% win rate that Red Rocks progeny typically have).  One member of the crop has a 4^th place finish in a stakes race, but otherwise there is nothing of note to date.  In total, Red Rocks has 1 Graded Stakes winner in the sim, 8yo gelding Wu Tang Adjacent (Dynaformer), who could run all day and was strongest at 16f.  Kymarc Cap is the also the last foal of 21yo mare Alycap, a winner of 2 from 19 races in her career.  A pure sprinter, her past performances show that she was on the rise as a 5yo when she was finally retired.  Her best foal of the 12 is 12yo multiple G3-winner Argyle Star (Elusive Quality), who was very successful at 8f-T in his career (including a 2^nd place finish in the G1 Sydney Mile in 2011).  Additionally, Alycap has 1 other stakes winner (a dirt sprinter) and 3 stakes-placed horses.  Kymarc Cap is the full brother of 4yo Red Alycap (Red Rocks), who was stakes placed at 6.5f-T as a 2yo in a heavily raced career that saw her run 37 times in her 2yo-3yo seasons.

Expectations: Kymarc Cap would like to sit just off the pace in this race, and hopes that the pace won’t be too quick up front.  If he can sit up front early, he’s got the ability to get the first run on some of the others coming from behind.  He’s faced stiff competition in the past and has shown some ability that could put him near the top today.  The question is whether he can bounce back from the dull 8^th last time out.

Watch Level: Medium

#3 – English Towne (Wootton Bassett (GB) x Rockette [Street Cry x El Prado]) – Owned by gunbow – 11/1

Race Record: 5:1-0-0; $36,810

Race History: English Towne kicked off his career in rough fashion, missing the board in each of his first 3 starts on turf.  But after getting 1 8f race under his belt, he showed some improvement in his 4^th race, an 8.5f-T MSW back in October 2018.  In that race, English Towne caught a slow pace and sat 3^rd, 1-1/4 off of the pace early.  From there, he moved up and grabbed the lead in the stretch, pulling away to win by 1-1/2 and earning an 81 SP (the pacesetter stuck around, finishing 2^nd).  He came back in an 8.5f-T Local NW1x, but couldn’t quite hang with the top horses in that one, gaining ground briefly before finishing a well-beaten 4^th.  It was a solid field, as the winner came back to run 2^nd in a 9.5f-T stakes and the 2^nd place horse came back to take a 9f-T NW2L by 2-1/4 lengths, and English Towne earned a career-best 84 SP for the 4^th place effort.

Pedigree: Wootton Bassett (GB) was a G1 winner at 7f back in 2010, and his stud fee increased to $40,000 this year after some successful real-world progeny (up from $6,000 initially).  His 2018 sim crop includes 45 winners from 88 runners, winning at a 16.5% clip, well above his 12% overall rate.  His 2018 class is currently ranked #95 overall, which is his highest ranking to date, indicating that his abilities may have been boosted in recent years.  Among the 2018 class is 1 stakes winner (1 of only 2 all-time for Wootton Bassett) and 1 G2-placed gelding, both of which have been most successful in 6f turf sprints.  That’s where Wootton Bassett’s progeny typically live, with 68% of earnings coming on turf and 69% in sprints.  Rockette, the 15yo dam of English Towne, spent most of her 30 race career in longer turf races (10f-12f), and she picked up a stakes placing in a 4 horse field.  In total, she was 3 for 30.  English Towne is the 10^th foal of Rockette, and 8 of the previous 9 have picked up at least 1 allowance win.  Rocky Rockette (Stormy Atlantic) is the only stakes winner of the group, succeeding in both turf and dirt sprints, though in general her progeny have found easy spots in which to find success.  Wootton Bassett was bred to a Street Cry mare 3 times in 2018, and although none have yet won above the maiden level, all 3 (including English Towne) have been improving as they stretch out on the turf.

Expectations: English Towne is another one in this race that is hoping for a soft pace.  He likely won’t sit on the pace, preferring to stalk or come from mid-pack, but he doesn’t seem to have the closing kick as some others.  So he’ll need some help on the front end to keep himself closer and the closers at bay.  He last race may look a little concerning based on the result, but he caught 2 solid horses and narrowly missed 3^rd, so he may be able to move forward off of that run.  If he does, he’s got some potential here.

Watch Level: Low

#4 – Monk Brew (Redoute’s Choice x Dynaformer x Kingmambo) – Owned by deyoto10 – 5/1 (f-t)

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $31,484

Race History: Monk Brew began his career in October 2018, entering a huge field of 18 in a 4.5f turf MSW.  He showed some ability, running 5^th, but it wasn’t until he was given some room to run in his 2^nd race that he really hinted at promise.  In December 2018, Monk Brew was stretched out to 8f-T, and he showed that he loved the extra distance.  There, he stalked the early pace, sitting 1 length off of the pace in 3^rd, but pounced in the far turn, taking the lead and not looking back.  He headed to the winner’s circle with an expanding 1-3/4 length win and earning a career best 90 SP.  3^rd in that MSW came back to finish 2^nd in a 9f-T MSW next time out, with a 92 SP.

Pedigree: Redoute’s Choice was the #20 ranked Australian sire in 2018, and his sim crop is similarly impressive, currently ranked #24.  His 3yo sim crop includes 130 runners and 73 winners, who are winning at a 20% rate.  Among those 73 winners are 6 stakes winners and an additional 7 stakes placed horses.  The best to date is Choose Your Dream, winner of a G2 and twice 2^nd in G1s, all at 6f on the turf.  Redoute’s Choice does tend to throw turf horses (73% earnings on turf), though his charges usually prefer routes (62% in routes).  His 3yo crop, however, has been stronger in sprints, though one would expect that as more progress to longer races, they will find more success there.  The Redoute’s Choice x Dynaformer cross has been particularly popular and successful, with 26 foals bred in the past 4 years.  Of those 26, 5 are stakes winners (3 graded winners), and one, Dariel, may be familiar to you, as he was the 2016 Sim Horse of the Year (also 3yo Turf Male of the Year).  The cross was used 3 times in 2018, with one horse still looking for her maiden win and the other a winner of 3 from 6 races (primarily turf sprints).

Expectations: Much like Redoute’s Choice’s progeny seem to get better as the distances increase, so too has Monk Brew.  His last race was a dominant performance, and if he can repeat that here, he should be in great shape in this race.  Expect him to sit just off the pace and pounce, as he makes his first effort of his 3yo campaign.

Watch Level: High

#5 – Bomb Cyclone (Charm Spirit (IRE) x Battle Rages On [Diesis x Lyphard]) – Owned by abcde8 – 12/1

Race Record: 6:1-0-1; $31,767

Race History: Bomb Cyclone, a French-bred horse, has liked the home sod here, where she picked up her only win in her 2^nd start, a local-bred MSW at 5.5f-T back in March of 2018.  Unfortunately, that maiden race doesn’t look particularly strong, as only a few of the 11 horses have managed to pick up a win since that time.  In his last race, Bomb Cyclone tried routing for the first time in a local NW2L here in Paris, but struggled to keep up with the field for the full 8.5f, falling to midpack early and continuing to lose ground, finishing 8^th of 9, 8-3/4 lengths back, with a 78 SP.  The winner in that one, who earned an 86 SP, came back to take a NW3L local allowance next time out with an 89 SP, so there is some potential at the top of end of that field.  Bomb Cyclone comes into this race off of a 2 month layoff, and he hopes to progress in turf routes as a 3yo here.

Pedigree: Charm Spirit, a G1 winning turf miler, stands for $17,500 in real life with 1 Graded Stakes winner, but seems to be far more popular in the sim.  He is the #31 ranked 2018 sire currently, with 103 runners and 55 winners from the crop (winning at an 18% rate).  Those 55 winners include 3 stakes winners, of which 2 are graded stakes winners.  Remember The Name, the best of his 3yo crop and 2^nd best foal to date, is a G1 winner at 8f-T, running 2nd in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Turf before taking the win in The Futurity-G1.  His sim progeny generally loves turf, with 75% of earnings coming on the grass, which his progeny has no real preferred distance (a 53/47 split between earnings in sprints and routes).  Battle Rages On, a 16yo mare, has 8 foals in total, of which Bomb Cyclone is the 7^th.  A stakes-placed horse at 8f-T, Battle Rages On was best at the 8-9f distances, earning 7 of her 8 career wins in 39 career starts in route races.  Four of her 6 other foals to race thus far have picked up allowance wins, with her first, Galeos (Galileo (IRE)), finishing 4^th in a 12f-T stakes.  Preferred distances vary wildly with her progeny, running the gamut from 5f to 16f, though most prefer the turf.  A Diesis mare has been sent to Charm Spirit one other time in the past 4 years, and that horse is also part of the 3yo crop, but she has not yet done more than breaking her maiden in a sprint.

Expectations:  Bomb Cyclone had been improving in every race until his last step backwards, where he struggled out of the gate and never had a chance in the race.  But he gets a nice break here and doesn’t need to travel as he heads back onto the track.  Expect him to be a little more involved early than he was in his last race, though he’ll still probably sit a few lengths off the pacesetters.  From there, it’s just a question of whether he can make a strong transition to the 3yo season.  I’d keep an eye on him in this one to see if the last race was a fluke or a trend.

Watch Level: Medium

#6 – Milanesa (Snitzel x Mellon Collie [Kingmambo x Northern Dancer]) – Owned by curiostud – 7/1

Race Record: 4:1-0-0; $35,147

Race History: Milanesa broke his maiden in his 2^nd career start, and first at 8f-T, back in September 2018.  In that MSW, he sat midpack early, 2-1/2 lengths off the leader, before getting the first jump and showing a strong kick.  He drew off to win by 2 lengths, earning a career-best 78 SP.  Unfortunately, things stalled a bit from there.  None of Milanesa’s competition in the 9 horse maiden field has gone on to break their maiden, and Milanesa has struggled in the NW2L ranks since.  In his last race, cutting back from 8f to 7.5f, he fell out of the race early, staying in the back the entire way and finishing 10^th of 12.  He did move up a bit in the stretch, passing a couple of tiring horses, but he comes into this race off of stagnating speed figures in hopes of taking the next step as a 3yo.

Pedigree: Snitzel was the #1 ranked Australian sire in 2018, his second year in a row as leading Australian sire, with 4 real life G1 winners in 2018.  His sim abilities have not yet fully caught up to his real world abilities, but his 2018 crop is his best to date, currently ranked #35.  The crop includes 122 runners and 66 winners, who are winning at a 20.4% rate (well above Snitzel’s 15% overall win rate, though that rate is skewed by a clear boost that Snitzel received back in 2014).  The 3yo class includes 4 stakes winners and 1 G3 winner (in a turf sprint), and also includes a multiple G1-placed gelding (in turf sprints) and a multiple-4^th place G1 filly (in turf routes).  Milanesa is the 6^th foal of Mellon Collie, an 11yo winner of 3 from 24 races.  Mellon Collie showed a preference for turf routes in her career, winning an eye-catching NW2L in her first route attempt at 9f-T.  She spent most of her career in the 9f-10f turf races.  Her most successful daughter, Aye She Is Hot (Teofilo), is a multiple stakes-placed mare at 8.5f-9f-T.  2 other siblings are also allowance winners, both at 9f-T or longer races.  The Snitzel x Kingmambo cross is particularly popular, with 18 horses being bred over the past 4 years.  Unfortunately, none of the 18 has achieved stakes success, and to the extent that they have found success, it has been primarily in turf sprints.

Expectations: The 7/1 odds on Milanesa indicate that the oddsmakers like this colt’s chances here, but I’m not sure I’m on the same page.  Milanesa has strong bloodlines, but he looks like he’s hit a bit of a wall at the allowance level.  I expect him to break towards the back of the pack here, and I’m not sure if he has the gear necessary to take down this race.  The hope is that he’ll make the jump as a 3yo, but I’ll wait a race to see if that jump comes before backing him.

Watch Level: Low

#7 – Tete Gaahlskagg (Pivotal x Victorious Fowl [Dawn Approach (IRE) x Rock Hard Ten]) – Owned by sabbath4 – 12/1

Race Record: 2:1-0-0; $28,170

Race History: Sabbath4 sponsored this race as a way to stretch out his colt beyond 6f-T, where he ran both of his previous races.  Tete Gaahlskagg broke his maiden at first asking, earning a 79 SP and stalking the pace before grabbing the photo by 1/4 length.  2nd place in the maiden race came back next time out on dirt to break his own maiden, as did the 6th place horse.  Unfortunately, Tete Gaahlskagg regressed a bit in his 2nd start, finishing 4th of 6, 3-1/2 lengths behind the pace-setting winner, after again trying to stalk the pace and coming up empty in the stretch.  He earned a disappointing 72 SP for the effort.  He’ll make his first route effort here.

Pedigree: Pivotal was the #61 ranked sire in the US/EU in 2018, with 2 G1 winners and an average winning distance of 9f.  His 3yo sim crop includes 109 runners to date, with 55 winners who are winning at a 17.6% rate, on par with Pivotal’s overall win rate in the sim.  Those 55 winners include 2 stakes winners (one of whom is G3-placed), both of which have been successful in super-sprints (5-5.5f) on the turf.  This is no surprise for Pivotal progeny, as 70% of earnings have come on the turf.  Historically, Pivotal progeny prefer routes (65% earnings in routes), but the last 2 crops seem to show a shift towards the shorter distances (62% earnings in sprints for 2017, 71% for 2018).  Likewise, the speed figures recently have been slightly better in sprints than routes when compared to the averages.  Tete Gaahlkagg is the first child of 6yo stakes-winning mare Victorious Fowl, who was retired after 2 off-the-board efforts in turf sprint stakes to end her career.  She was 5 for 20 in her career on the turf, including a stakes win at 7f-T.  She showed some distance limitations, but seemed to be able to get up to 8f-T without too much of a problem, earning her second best career SP of 107 in an 8f turf stakes where she ran 4th of 14 (at 31/1 odds).

Expectations: Tete Gaahlskagg sat just off the pace in 2 sprints and pushed pretty hard to do it, so it’s likely to see him sit close to, if not on, the pace in this race.  But there are some definite concerns about the distance.  His mother was primarily a sprinter, and his sire, while a longer distance sire in real life and earlier in the sim, seems to be throwing sprinters recently.  The poor 2^nd start is also not a good sign for this one.  Hopefully he can bounce back in his first race of 2019, but I’d look elsewhere here.

Watch Level: Low

#8 – Call Boy (Harzand (IRE) x Stage Fright [In The Wings x Lion Cavern] – Owned by delwoodleah7 – 13/1

Race Record: 8:1-0-0; $31,965

Race History: Call Boy is the veteran of the field, having already raced 8 times in his career, including 1 race already in 2019, back on January 9.  Thus far, those 8 races have resulted in only 1 on-the-board finish, when he broke his maiden in a Local MSW at 8f-T back in August 2018 in his 5^th career race.  That race ended up on the good turf after some rain, and Call Boy sat midpack early, about 3-1/4 lengths back, before gaining on some tiring horses and striking the front.  He would pull away to win by 1-1/4, earning a 75 SP in his first route attempt.  He has struggled in the leap to the NW2L ranks and out of local races, with a 4^th, 5^th, and 7^th place finish in 3 tries.  Call Boy saw a decent SP bump in his first 2 tries following the maiden score, earning an 81 and an 83 SP in an 8.5f-T and 8f-T allowance, respectively, and he caught some solid fields (the top 2 from his first NW2L attempt are G3-placed and stakes-placed).  But his first race of 2019 showed a bit of a regression, as he was beaten 12-1/2 and put up a dull 76 SP.  He comes back 2.5 weeks later here, hoping that the poor showing last time out was a fluke.

Pedigree: The 2016 Epsom Derby winner, Harzand currently stands for $10,000 and entered stud in 2017, which means does not have any real life progeny on the track yet (his weanlings sold for an average of $25,426 in 2018).   In the sim, Harzand’s 3yo crop includes 89 runners to date, including 33 winners who win at a 13% rate (his 4yo crop is slightly higher, at 16.5%).  His progeny strongly prefer turf, with 89% of earnings coming from the grass.  The 3yo crop includes 1 stakes winner, Bonezander, who was 13^th in the Breeders Bowl Filly Juvy Turf.  The dam, Stage Fright, is a 20yo mare that has 9 children, of which Call Boy is the 8^th (her last foal has not yet raced).  Only 3 of her 7 prior children have an allowance win on their record, and all of those allowance wins were in sprints (2 on turf, 1 on dirt).  Stage Fright herself was 1 of 16 in her career, with her best races coming in sprints (and her only win coming in a dirt sprint).

Expectations: Call Boy is not very quick out of the gate, so will rely on either a slow pace, that he can sit close to, or some closing speed in order to get to the front.  His ideal style would be to sit a few lengths off of the pace early and pick off some tiring horses, but his first race as a 3yo is a bit of a red flag here.  He’s got some potential, but this may not be his best spot.  If he had caught an off-track here, he might have a better chance, but unfortunately the rain clouds held off.

Watch Level: Low

#9 – Mean No Harm (Into Mischief x Dark Interval [Unbridled’s Song x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by plano8 – 5/1 (f-t)

Race Record: 3:1-2-0; $54,720

Race History: Mean No Harm has done everything that you could ask for in his first 3 races.  In his first race, at 5.5f-T, he ran 2^nd to a horse that would come back to take a NW2L Allowance with a 93 SP, before faltering at the G2 level.  Mean No Harm stretched out to 7f-T for his second race in November 2018 and sat back early, but showing another gear in the stretch to pass horses and grab the lead, pulling away to win by 1-3/4  and earning an 83 SP in a race where the horses setting the pace stayed in the top 6.  The 3^rd place finisher in that race would come back to take a 5.5f-T MSW next time out with a 79 SP.  Mean No Harm comes into this one off of a 2^nd place finish in an 8f-T NW2L allowance, where he again sat midpack early and caught all but one horse, finishing 2^nd by 2 lengths (3 clear of 3^rd) and earning a career best 87 SP.

Pedigree: A G1 winner at 8.5f, Into Mischief has really come on in the past few years in the real world, ranking as the #4 US sire in 2018.  In the sim, he comes in as the #5 ranked sire in 2018, with 140 runners and 77 winners to date.  Those 77 winners have done so at a 19% clip, which is in line with his progeny winning percentage over the past 5 years.  It’s a bit of a surprise to see Into Mischief sire a horse in this race, as his progeny typically prefers dirt sprints, with 75% of earnings on the dirt and 62% in sprints.  Into Mischief’s 3yo crop includes 2 G1 winners, one of whom, Into Being Nice, is the 2018 Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile winner and may have a new title after next week.  He was also represented in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile by Loyal Chief, who ran 11^th there.  Only 3 of his top 10 3yos have shown any real affinity for turf, with one being multiple stakes-placed in turf sprints.  Mean No Harm is the 4^th foal from Dark Interval, a G1-winning 9yo mare who won 11 races in her 28 race career.  That G1 win was in the Breeders Bowl Game-G1 at 8f on the turf, on New Yorker day back in June of 2014.  Dark Interval was a fairly ambivalent horse, winning 5 of 11 on dirt, 6 of 17 on turf, 7 of 11 in sprints, and 4 of 17 (including 2 of her 4 stakes wins, and her G1 win).  That ability on both surfaces seems to have been passed down to her most successful foal, 5yo Might Is Right (More Than Ready), who is G1-placed at 7f on dirt and put up a solid effort in his first turf try 2 weeks ago.  The progeny do tend to prefer sprints, which fits into the Into Mischief mold.  Likewise, the Into Mischief x Unbridled’s Song cross seems to prefer dirt sprints above all else, with 1 6-time stakes winner in the 5yo crop, all in dirt stakes.

Expectations: Mean No Harm is yet another horse that is going to let those at the front go while he settles in towards the back.  Although the breeding says that he should prefer sprints, he held his own last time out in his first route effort.  If he can run back to that one, he’s got a good shot here.  And although I think he’s got a solid chance in this race, I can’t help but wonder what would happen if he tried dirt, specifically in the 7-7.5f race.  I think he has even more potential there, and his past success in turf races may be masking his true maximum abilities on a different surface.

Watch Level: High

#10 – Nustfahs (Sea The Stars x Shaftsun [Mineshaft x Monsun]) – Owned by gtrain – 24/1

Race Record: 5:1-1-0; $38,885

Race History: A very well-bred foal, Nustfahs had high hopes in his debut, a 6f-T MSW in Ireland, but he struggled to keep pace with a strong field and finished 8^th, beaten 5-3/4 lengths.  The winner of that MSW, Pirates Hurricane, who go on to take down The M.L. Trophy-G3 at 6f-T 4 races later.  Nustfahs came back in his second race in a 5.5f local dirt MSW, and he travelled in a huge pack at the start before getting his nose in front and breaking his maiden by ¼ lengths.  However, he only earned a 64 SP in the process.  He would come back at 5.5f on the dirt and finish 2^nd of 4 in a NW1x, but his most recent 2 races, one at 6f on the dirt and one at 7f on the turf, saw him run 10^th and 11^th, not breaking a 70 SP.  He will try routing for the first time here.

Pedigree: Sea The Stars, the 2009 European Horse of the Year, was the #23 ranked sire in the EU + NA in 2018. In the sim, his 2018 crop is currently ranked #11, with 171 runners to date and 97 winners, winning at a 20% rate.  His progeny prefers turf routes (75% earnings on turf, 69% routes).  The 3yo crop, in particular, includes 6 stakes winners to date, all but one of whom has done so on turf.  However, he has no graded stakes winners to date.  Nustfahs, which is Shaftsun backwards, is the first foal from the 10yo mare.  Shaftsun was a winner of 7 from 34 races, including stakes wins at 7.5f and 8.5f on the turf.  She bounced back and forth between sprints and routes in her career, but seemed to prefer the 7f-8.5f range generally.  Of note, she was 4:1-2-1 in her career on a good or yielding turf course.

Expectations: The breeding screams “success”, but unfortunately, nothing this colt has shown on the track so far gives hope in this race and the oddsmakers noticed, making him the biggest longshot in the field.  He struggled to keep up with horses in his last race, a 7f NW2L on the turf, where he was disinterested and kept dropping back, finishing 11^th of 12 and beaten 13-1/2 lengths at 15/1.  If he couldn’t keep up there, unfortunately there’s no reason to think he can do so here.  His inability to break a 70 SP through 5 career races is another concern in this race.  There’s always a chance that he can pop as a 3yo, but I would look elsewhere in this race.

Watch Level: Low

#11 – Earthworm Jim (Not This Time x Earn Earn Earn [War Front x Unbridled’s Song]) – Owned by nepenthe28 – 8/1

Race Record: 5:1-1-2; $41,895

Race History: It took 5 tries, but Earthworm Jim finally came through in his most recent race, an 8f-T MSW at the end of December 2018.  After running 2^nd in his debut to a horse that would come back to run 3^rd in a 6.5f-T stakes next time out, Earthworm Jim tried 8f-T for the first time but couldn’t quite sustain his run through the entire race.  After a turn back to sprints and then a polytrack try, he finally found his way back to the 8f-T distance and showed that a little seasoning can go a long way.  In that race, he stalked the pace, sitting 3 lengths off the pacesetter, and got first run in the stretch, passing the two horses in front of him and pulling away to win by 2 lengths, earning a career best 87 SP.  He comes into this one off of that maiden score.

Pedigree: Not This Time, a son of Giant’s Causeway, entered stud in 2017 so he has no real life runners, but his weanlings averaged $76,833 at auction in 2018.  His 3yo sim crop includes 74 runners to date, of which 26 have won with wins coming at an 11% rate.  One of those 26, Diora Danger, has managed to pull down a stakes victory, in a 6.5f turf sprint stakes.  Although there is only limited sim information on Not This Time, his progeny thus far seem to be the opposite of what we see in this race; they prefer dirt sprints (66% earnings on turf, 78% in sprints).  However, when it comes to speed figures, the route speeds have popped a little more than the sprint speed figures have.  Earthworm Jim is the 2^nd of 3 foals from 7yo mare Earn Earn Earn.  Earn Earn Earn was a winner of 6 from 38 races in her career, and she spent all but her first and her last 2 races at the allowance level.  She found most of her success in dirt mile races, preferring 7.5f-8f dirt races.  She only tried turf once, but it was one of the worst races of her career.  Earthworm Jim’s only sibling to race thus far, Serpens (Pyro), is a maiden winner from 13 races, but seems to be a solid horse on both turf and dirt.  His last 3 races have come in turf sprints, with a 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th at the allowance level.

Expectations: With minimal pace in this race, Earthworm Jim is the type who can sit on or near the lead.  His last race was a very solid run and bodes well for the future, but the real question is whether that race was legit or a fluke.  None of his competitors from that maiden win have gone back to the track yet, so we don’t know exactly how strong that field was.  Meanwhile, his pedigree is another one that suggests dirt (and possibly even dirt sprints), a surface that he has yet to try.  I’d be curious to see how he did on the dirt.  Plus, with a name like Earthworm Jim, spending time on the dirt makes too much sense.  With that said, I think there’s reason for optimism in this race.

Watch Level: High

#12 – Baby Be Fast (Lope De Vega x Royal Baby [Frankel (GB) x Seattle Slew]) – Owned by redhill11 – 5/1 (f-t)

Race Record: 2:1-1-0; $38,250

Race History: Baby Be Fast debuted in November of 2018 in a 6f-T MSW, and in that race he dueled for the lead early and throughout the entire race, but his competitor, who had a few races under his belt, was able to win the battle and Baby Be Fast had to settle for 2^nd, earning a 78 SP. 3^rd in that race would go on to break his maiden next time out at 8f-T with a 90 SP.  Baby Be Fast took what he learned in his debut and applied it in his most recent race in December 2018, an 8f-T MSW.  In that race, he decided not to get into a pace duel and sat 2 lengths off of the leader in 4^th.  But Baby Be Fast was much the best in that race, and took over the lead at the top of the stretch, pulling away to win by 2 lengths and earning a career best 82 SP.  He makes the jump to the NW2L level here looking to repeat his last performance.

Pedigree: Lope De Vega was the #33 ranked sire in EU + NA in 2018, with 6 graded stakes winners (including 1 G1 winner).  In the sim, his crop is not as highly rated, as his 2018 crop clocks in at #172 overall thus far.  That 3yo crop includes 77 runners and 32 winners who succeed at a 14% rate (slightly below his 15.5% average).  Among the 32 winners are 3 stakes winners, with all 3 coming in turf sprints.  Lope De Vega’s progeny typically prefer turf, with 71% of earnings on turf, while the sprint/route split is pretty even (though his progeny’s speed figures, particularly in this 3yo crop, are more impressive in sprints that routes).  Royal Baby, the 8yo dam of Baby Be Fast, was a very successful runner herself, a winner of 9 from 34 career races.  Those 9 wins included a stakes win at 7.5f-T and a G3 win at 8f-T.  Her best performances were in 8-9f turf races, though she showed some ability at 7.5f as well.  Baby Be Fast is the 2ndfoal from the G3 mare.  His older sister, Bend The Knee (Shamardal), took after her mother and is also a G3 winner.  That G3 win was in The Vanguard, a 9f turf stakes for 3yo fillies.  That 9f distance has been her best thus far through her 13 race career.

Expectations: Baby Be Fast isn’t a need-the-lead type of horse, and in future races I can see him stalking the pace or even sitting midpack.  But there seems to be almost no pace in this race, and he showed in his debut that he’s got early speed.  So I see him going for the lead here.  The real question is whether he’ll be able to sustain that speed for the full 8 furlongs and hold off some of the late charges.  His best speed figure isn’t quite as high as some of the others in this field, but he’s shown nice progression in 2 races and has a solid pedigree foundation to fall back on.  I like his chances here.

Watch Level: High

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So that’s the field of 12 in this NW2L allowance.  My predictions are (1) Baby Be Fast, (2) Monk Brew, (3) Earthworm Jim, with Sunset Ave as my longshot pick.  Last week I said there would be tons of speed, and yet the pace ended up slow.  This week, I think that there’s so little pace that if I personally ran in this one, I might be the pacesetter.  So I’m going with the 2 horses in this race that are solid and have shown some speed in the past.  Of course, that probably means that 6 horses will get caught up in a speed duel and they’ll burn through an opening quarter in 20.80 seconds.  But there’s only one way to find out, and that’s to watch the race! (Or check back next week).  Until then…

Other races to watch this weekend:

1)      New York – Alw NW3L @ 8f (Friday)

2)      Ireland – Alw NW4L @ 8f-T

3)      Vermont – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f

4)      New Mexico – Alw NW2L @ 8f (Fillies)

5)      Paris – Alw NW2L @ 6.5f-T

6)      Germany – Alw NW3L @ 9f-T (Fillies)

7)      Ireland – Alw NW3L @ 8f-T (Fillies)

8)      Texas – Alw NW1x @ 6f (Fillies)

9)      Deauville – LOCAL Alw NW4L @ 9f-T