I Am NOT Going To Be IGNORED, Sim World Cup!
Good evening, class, and welcome to Snubbing 0116: Snubs and the Sim Trainer.
Snubbing is a skill—nay!, an art form, passed down from generation to generation. And many a famous person has snubbed another entity over history. Marie Antoinette snubbed the poor people of Paris, who decided if they couldn’t east cake, neither could Marie anymore, and this became a most extreme example of losing one’s head while all about you are keeping theirs. And America’s ninth president, William Henry Harrison, literally gave his overcoat the cold shoulder when he was inaugurated in 1841, and after the longest inaugural speech in history to date, in the rain and freezing cold, caught a cold that became pneumonia, and he died thirty days later, giving him the shortest presidential tenure. So, snubbing is done at your peril.
In recent times, California has become the main location for the cold-shoulder treatment, where the stars congregate to snub and be snubbed, a tradition that dates back to Hedda Hopper and Louella Parsons, the most powerful Hollywood gossip mavens of Hollywood from the 1930s to the 1960s, who were constantly outdoing one another to snub each other more and harder, and encouraging actors and actresses to follow their leads. These days, it’s second nature. To wit: Kanye snubs Fiddy. Fiddy snubs Diddy. Diddy snubs Paris. Paris snubs Lindsay. Lindsay snubs Brittney. After the last two weeks, Brit’s career is so dead that there’s no one left for her to snub. Even her kids want a restraining order preventing contact. Bottom line: snubbing has consequences in California.
That leads us to California racing, specifically who isn’t invited to partake in the Sim World Cup this weekend. It’s sparked a sort of counter-revolution, with the Nomination Committee Not Needed in Denmark, and the forthcoming Grade I, $500,000 World Cup Snub Championship in—no fair guessing—California. You just knew the Sim World Cup would spark debates about who got invited on merit, who got in despite merit, and who was…to borrow a quote from Julie Andrews when she was snubbed on Broadway, “egregiously overlooked” from the Sim World Cup festivities. It’s all in good fun (which is what they all say about Hollywood snubs, particularly at Oscar time…albeit with a frozen, tight smile on their faces), but someone bought the race and named it thusly, and so it’s a Grade I for the uninvited, in essence.
Does the buyer have a solid case to make? This Grade I is a two-mile island populated by fillies and mares in the marathon division. The SWC equivalent is the World Cup Ladies Survivor, a Grade I with the same conditions and distance as this one, only in Pennsylvania, where snubbing is more of a hobby applied by soccer moms to members of the local PTA and by everyone towards both the Amish and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Comparing the fields strictly based on how they are ranked in the division, both have their deficiencies. Neither field contains, for example, the top-ranked marathoner, Xtremely Gold (last seen on the grass a month ago), who’s in the shorter Ladies Marathon a race earlier on the card. In fact, Fusaichi Krissy (#3), CSI Super (#4), Otto History (#7), and K’s Joan Bach (#8) all have engagements in the SWC this week, just not at two miles. (Runnin’ Rebel, #10, isn’t running at all this weekend.) The SWC race does have Frozen Four, #2, a co-favorite who should hold the advantage. In the SWC Survivor, they have only two others running from the Top 25. But because the SWC has many of the Top 25 distaff marathoners running in different divisions, they appear to have an overall advantage.
Yet one cannot honestly look at the Snub Championship and state they have many weaknesses in their assembled field. What the race may lack in overall divisional firepower, it more than makes up for it in reasonable quality. Eleven horses will enter the gate, including three of the division’s Top 25 fillies. The eighth-ranked Black Pleasure is on form the most favorable of the three, while the sixth-ranked Movie In Tux Ryry and the seventeenth-ranked Silent Blade currently have questions to answer on their recent form. Additionally, the post-time favorite is a relative newcomer to the division, Desperado’s Mambo, and as if that wasn’t enough, a quickly developing threat could be the lightest-raced filly of the bunch, Pye Are Squared, who makes a graded debut in what is a rather open affair, no pun intended. The past performances suggest that a speed figure of 100 doesn’t necessarily have to win this race, but it would be recommended given the high-ranking quality of the main threats.
Judge for yourself, and take a closer look at the field:
Final Request [Rainbow Quest x Seeking The Gold, trained by lopo87 for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] should give any underrated, struggling, or, yes, otherwise-snubbed trainer hope. Here’s a well-bred mare who has never broken the century mark with a speed figure, and through tenacious placement and a willingness to diversify her abilities, has managed to earn just shy of half a million in earnings while only once hitting the board in a graded races. All props and respect should be given to Given for guiding the mare to such a result without necessarily joining the elite of the division with this one. That’s the good news, but the bad news is the mare is afflicted with a disturbing case of seconditis. She’s got nine wins and seven seconds in her career, but of those seconds, five of those have come in her last five outings. Also, her diversification (twenty-two starts on grass, and only eight on dirt) is also an albatross, as it’s a case of “jack of all trades, master of none”: her last dirt win was sixteen months ago, and the last fast dirt-track win was twenty-two months ago. She’ll likely try to go to the front again, but this being her first graded race since last Christmas, she’s going to need to be sturdy on or near the lead for sixteen furlongs, versus fillies with a slightly higher level of consistency. Lastly, this is her first two-mile race on dirt, and her races previously on the surface featured better results at distances about a half-mile shorter. It’s difficult to make a case for her here between the other (as you will soon see) massive pace-setters in the field, the long distance, and the graded foes. Her connections should still be respected here, though, as should an ability to be in every race on either surface, and the fact that this one’s picked up a Top-5 paycheck an astounding 92% of the time in thirty starts; a minor share is once again possible.
Silent Blade [Vindication x Secretariat, trained by rrracing] doesn’t need to wish she had such consistency lately. In forty-three outings, she’s closing in on $400,000 in earnings, and also hasn’t cracked 100 in a speed figure; it’s not always necessary to hit 100 at this level and in this division to be considerably successful. What’s more, she’s won two of her last five, and she’s 2-for-4 at the distance, including a Grade III win. She prefers to stalk, and that’s for the best: last time out, when left to the lead, she folded pretty quickly, going eleven furlongs in Kentucky. She likes the longest routes possible, though, and the shorter prep might give her a kick in the pants. 2006’s High And Low Marathon found her sitting off a reasonable pace, then drawing away by five lengths and earning a stellar 99 speed figure; a repeat of that one would be the most ideal scenario for her. Trouble is, there are a couple of potent forces on the lead who should keep everyone moving in this Grade I, and her numbers, while better going two miles than shorter, might still need a lift very close to 100, if not over, for her best. She’ll threaten from at least mid-pack, and might have something left if her last two races are discounted for their futility from that spot.
Solutions [Touch Gold-Mox Sapphire, by T.M. Opera O, trained by kdiv for the Opcon Stables] is still looking for something viable. She just returned from an extended vacation, after a dismal twenty-seven length shellacking in a February route, with a respectable tiring third in a Kentucky allowance going eleven furlongs. That distance has held some allure for her in the past, as she’s 2-for-5 going eleven panels, including a Grade II win in the spring of 2006. But she’s never been two miles before, and her recent form doesn’t suggest she’ll prefer sixteen to eleven. She can sit just off the pace, and has earned a speed figure over 100 previously, but she also hasn’t won since June 2006, and may still need a race to shake off the rust. It’s a big field, and the pace doesn’t figure to be all that sedate as they can usually be at the distance. This figures to be a stepping-stone to better things back at her preferred eleven-furlong distance, even though the second-off-the-layoff angle holds a certain appeal here.
Pye Are Squared(AUS) [Viscount(AUS) x Rahy, trained by jeffdrew for The Big Oil Conglomerate (ft. LordPye)] is an intriguing newcomer to the division, with this being only her eleventh start. After five turf starts to begin the career, she exploded when moved to the dirt with a pair of powerful distance wins. She opened up four in a wire job versus allowance foes, then opened up seven in a French stakes and still held on to win by four, which were coincidentally the size of the fields she beat in each respective race: four, then seven opponents. As she’s risen in esteem and in class, her speed hasn’t held as well, as she’s tired in each of three stakes tries since; while she’s finished no worse than third each time, that points to the slightly misleading nature of her excellent ten-race start. The biggest field she has faced overall has been eight in her debut. This isn’t just going to be the largest field she’s stood next to in the gate, but the most qualified field as well; the only graded-winning horse she has faced has been Black Pleasure, who is here again, and Black Pleasure took charge of the Left In The Dark last out, beating this one (who set the pace) by more than twelve lengths. Her speed is certainly potent, as she showed, even against a small field, by opening up by eleven two starts back in Florida, but it makes her vulnerable as well, as she got nailed by three-quarters of a length in the end. Her speed figures are excellent, given her relative inexperience, and a 104 going a mile and a half, even in a losing effort three back, is still strong. But she’s likely to face more pressure early on in this race than she has previously, and the two-mile distance under that tactic makes it questionable if, despite outrunning her generally sprint-oriented pedigree by far, she can get such a long route. She’ll try to go as far as she can swiftly, but whether she’ll get more than a minor share at the end is a more reasonable query here; a more modest pace, though, will open the door to her.
Make A Little Love [Red Ransom x Northern Dancer, trained by jmb] has the right idea. As for racing, she’s earned the best recent speed figure in the last eight starts, a 106 in a thirteen-furlong allowance race in Pennsylvania in June. What she is missing is experience against stakes foes, as this will mark just her third start in open company stakes action, and her first Grade I race. Her last outing shows she could have potential in graded racing, with a bit more finesse; she was an outrun, even fifth in the Grade II Big Dessert at New Mexico. Switching to dirt routes helped her turn a corner this year, but while she loves going long, she’s only been as far as fourteen furlongs, albeit in stakes company. Thirteen furlongs, where she has four wins in allowance company, might be her preference, but since she is a deep threat as a closer, and the pace might get a bit swift for the distance, she might have a shot getting her motors revved late. Nevertheless, she has something to prove at this two-mile distance before receiving an endorsement.
Black Pleasure [Stravinsky x What A Pleasure, trained by semi for Wilder Stables] might only be ranked eighth, but she’s clearly got some top-5 spirit since April. Since rather hating Delaware’s slop in March in the Grade II Long Winded Ladies, she’s been at the least consistent (seven races and not once was she off the board) and at most clearly dominant (two wins, by a combined twelve lengths, although neither field was nearly as big or as deep as this one appears at first blush). She doesn’t like being much farther than ten lengths from the lead at any stretch, but makes a strong late run almost every time out. Last out, the Fear Of The Dark was an authoritative win, coming from eight lengths out to draw off by seven, and while a bounce might be possible, it could be signs of a sleeping giant coming alive at the right moment. The time of 2:31 wasn’t that imposing, but the 101 figure earned just misses being the best last-out speed figure in the field. She also does own a win at the distance, back in May, which is something that’s rather rare among the assembled here. Whether that five-length win, against a short, rather modest field of five others, gives her something of a benefit is up for grabs, but the Fear Of The Dark was impressive enough to merit being a modest second choice here. One wishes she was more battle-tested against better more recently than her third in the Grade III Denied in June, but she’s earned enough respect that even a modest bounce from last time out could still make her a serious threat.
Movie In Tux Ryry(IRE) [Theatrical(IRE)-Night On The Town(IRE), by Black Tie Affair(IRE), trained by ryry for Cothill Stables] has an unusual name, but does also have a win at this distance dating all the way back to last November. She also earned a 101 two back during a Smackdown Grade I event in July, closing nicely going fourteen furlongs. She did win the Grade II Long Winded Ladies in March at 33-1 in the Delaware muck, which helps to validate her among the division’s top draws, though her last win came in a listed stakes in May. Overmatched at a mile and a half in the Big Dessert last out, versus some heavy hitters, this race might actually come up a touch lighter than that, and the stretching out doesn’t hurt her as much as it may some others here. She figures to come from back in the pack, but not terribly far out of it, and though the distance is about as questionable for her as it might be for others, the circumstances of this race (weaker field than usual, projected vibrant pace, her closing kick) seem to fit her nicely, and improvement off her last outing is likely.
Desperado’s Mambo [Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells, trained by desperado4 for Desperado Stables] earned her favoritism here by three consecutive 100+ speed figures, and her last five starts have shown her growing through her brief, fifteen-start career. She was a late-moving third in the Big Dessert last time out, and swamped a four-horse field in a Puerto Rico stakes by almost nine lengths in July. That wire-to-wire win was a sort of coming-out party, as despite a rather weak trio of opponents, she still shined with a speed figure of 103. But that field was considerably weaker than this, and it was a stakes that was five furlongs shorter as well. Still, she acquitted herself nicely at a mile and a half, and finished well three back going thirteen panels (a 101 from off the pace). And her late-running style should keep her in the mix in the lane. She’s never gone this distance, but does own an allowance win earlier in her career at fourteen furlongs. The nose defeat in April in the appropriately-named Steaming Mad at Indiana seems to have given her some spark that’s lasted through the summer, she shouldn’t be too far off the pace, and has been hot at the right time. Could this be her breakthrough on the big stage?
Such Is Life(IRE) [Desert King(IRE) x Sadler’s Wells, trained by ghorseguy for Red Dirt Runners]. The philosophy suits her lack of a triple-digit speed figure thus far. But she comes in with the longest win streak of these, as she makes her graded stakes debut looking for her fourth straight victory. And she has not failed to bring home a piece of the purse since last September. Her current connections have rolled this filly to eight wins in the last ten months, all the while placing this filly aggressively and pushing her towards three stakes wins in a row. What sets her apart is the fact that she’s the only filly here to have won a two-mile stakes race in her most recent start, capturing Delaware’s Two Project Stakes over a pretty decent field after opening up an eleven-length lead. She’s got a bit of speed, but it’s not suspected that she’ll be leading the way here; the pressure she’ll provide proves to be more interesting in a tactical fashion considering the other possible early speed in Pye Are Squared. Nevertheless, her numbers at the distance, while still in the high-90s, stand up well considering the abilities (or lack thereof) of others going two miles, and should keep her in the swing of things. Not too many fillies can win from four-and-a-half to sixteen furlongs like this one, and if she can get to the front on her own, she may be difficult to nab. With pressure, though, the confidence wavers, particularly as she rises steeply in class versus some fine distance fillies.
Bom Bom [Sadler’s Wells x Nijinsky II, trained by texasace for Lone Star Racing] has a lot of Northern Dancer in her. She has a lot of grass potential, too, but this time, the bloodline lottery came out “marathon dirt router”, and through just thirteen starts, this filly has shown signs of deliverance. Her last outing was a strong allowance win at this track and distance three weeks ago, which earned a speed figure of 99. It was a five-length win, and an impressive statement to make in preparations for this start. There’s been some growing pains: while she won her stakes debut by seven-and-a-half lengths in May, she was a green sixth in a Grade I Smackdown race two back, in spite of being a too-late-but-still-impressive second in the Grade II Susan G. Koman For The Cure just prior to that (a 102 going fourteen furlongs). First, there’s precocity, then greenness, but after that is supposed to come education, and in her return to a Grade I field, her late run could come in handy if the pace is contested early on. According to her speed figures, she’s peaking at the right time, and this race could propel her into this division’s elite with a good trip. She is still comparatively inexperienced, but having won six of her last eight and having earned some intense figures in each of her last four, she is certainly in the right place at perhaps a most ideal time. Besides, the benefit of the doubt comes when you’re 2-for-2 at sixteen furlongs.
LPGA Brass Sword [Brahms x Sword Dance(IRE), trained by 19thhole for Balata Stables] has scads of experience at this distance, so much more so than the others. She’s started, on turf and dirt, eleven races in a row, and twelve of her last thirteen, at this distance. And she’s won six of nine at the distance on turf, and three of four on dirt in that span. That is quite impressive under any circumstances, indeed, and proves that she adores the endurance distances. She should be the third one battling for the early lead, which is where she wants to be. Her dirt debut at the distance was outstanding, four starts back, in her 2007 debut. You might recall that was when she was the one to end Dice Dancer’s long (some might imply controversial) twenty-race win streak, but she did it by running away with the lead, going clear by more than thirteen lengths with about three furlongs to go before cruising home by more than six, picking up a speed figure of 97 on the way. She has been that impressive on the lead before, but on grass, and when she’s faced with pressure, she’s had to work very hard to hang in there in the stretch. Like the other two with inclinations towards leading races, the looser she is on the lead, the more dangerous she will likely be. That in itself could be the story regarding pace, in that a three-way challenge could impact the chances of all three negatively. It should be added that while she did get that 97 four back, she hasn’t come all that close to that number in her three subsequent outings, her best figure since being a 92; the slop in two of those three might be a good excuse, but she might need a solid bump from the last off-track to contend. And as for class, this marks her first graded event on dirt; she was graded-placed on grass with a pair of thirds from 2005, but she hasn’t faced any graded action since the 2005 Panhandle Oaks.
The predictions:
1. Black Pleasure
2. Bom Bom
3. Movie In Tux Ryry(IRE)
4. Pye Are Squared
5. Silent Blade
Good luck to everyone.